‘4 lakh AIDS deaths in India last year, highest in world’

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`4 lakh AIDS deaths in India last year, highest in world'

Toufiq RashidPosted online: Wednesday, June 14, 2006 at 0000 hrs

NEW DELHI, JUNE 13:One fact went unnoticed in the UNAIDS Report on

the Global AIDS Epidemic released last month: the figure of

estimated AIDS deaths in India was over 4 lakh in 2005.

This is the highest in the world—South Africa had an estimated

figure of about 3.2 lakh for the same period.

The report had also highlighted that India led the HIV/ AIDS table

with 5.7 million people living with the disease.

The government is not willing to accept the figures easily. ``Before

commenting on the figures, we need to study the methodology UNAIDS

has adopted. We are going to study the projections in a week or so

and then only can react to it,'' said Sujatha Rao, DG, NACO.

Rao added that the government is trying to evolve a methodology to

arrive at independent estimates.

According to UNAIDS, the death figure shows the actual magnitude of

the problem. ``This represents the real face of the problem as we

need to assess what is the cost of the epidemic to the society,''

said Denis Broun, Country Representative of UNAIDS. ``The total

deaths show the magnitude of the problem. The 4-lakh (figure) is a

major catastrophe in a country where only less than one per cent

adults are suffering from HIV/AIDS,'' said Broun.

In 2004, UNAIDS had objected to the Government's claim of having

just 28,000 new infections, saying the death figures were not

considered. This year, NACO claimed that there were about 72,000 new

cases. UNAIDS, however, has said that the 72,000 increase needs to

be reviewed considering the new figures.

``When the prevalence rate increases, the number of deaths also

increases. People dying this time must have got infected 10 years

ago,'' said Broun.

Broun says the 4-lakh figure, however, like the 5.7 million HIV/AIDS

cases, is a mathematical derivation and not a headcount. Scientists

have used factors like India's average age of survival after the

infection, data on the average age of people with HIV and the number

of people on Anti-Retoviral Treatment.

``It is a method we have used to estimate the figures for all the

countries,'' said Broun.

The Indian government, too, is preparing a report on the number of

deaths in the country. Likely to be out this month, it's being

prepared by the National Institute of Medical Statistics. The model

for estimation is based on assessing the mortality of the population

without HIV and comparing it with the mortality rates.

Another survey funded by the Gates Foundation and the Canadian

government is basing its results on actual interviews and counts.

Though the official figure of the number of people living with HIV

is 5.2 million, the UNAIDS report put the figure at 5.7 million, the

highest in the world. While the government gave the estimates for

adult population (15 to 49 years of age), UNAIDS went ahead and

estimated that an additional 1 lakh children and 4 lakh people above

50 years needed to be added. ``Ours is a cradle-to-grave figure,''

said Broun. The only silver lining: the percentage of affected

population is below one per cent, in South Africa it's 20 per cent,

said L.M. Nath, former AIIMS director and an AIDS epidemiologist.

Catastrophe: UNAIDS

• Estimated AIDS deaths in India over 4 lakh in 2005

• South Africa next with estimated 3.2 lakh deaths

• India led HIV/AIDS table with 5.7 million infected

• NACO doesn't accept figures, says methodology needs to be studied

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