U.S. may put up 'defense umbrella' over Mideast

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U.S. may put up 'defense umbrella' over Mideast

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton says her warning is aimed at getting Iran to

reconsider its nuclear program. But some say it suggests the U.S. is bracing for

the reality of a nuclear-armed Iran.

By Richter

July 23, 2009

Reporting from Washington -- Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton warned

Wednesday that the United States may erect a " defense umbrella " over the Middle

East if Tehran continues its nuclear program, a sign that the Obama

administration is preparing for the reality of an Iranian bomb.

Clinton, appearing at a regional meeting in Thailand, also laid down a tough

line on North Korea, declaring that the United States and the communist nation's

neighbors will offer no new incentives for the Pyongyang government to return to

nuclear disarmament talks.

" We do not intend to reward North Korea just for returning to the table, nor do

we intend to reward them for actions they have already committed to, then

reneged on, " Clinton said after conferring with ministers of China, Russia,

South Korea and Japan.

In raising the possibility of a " defense umbrella, " Clinton insisted that she

was not abandoning the current U.S. policy toward Iran, which involves a

combination of diplomatic outreach and sanctions. Even so, her words suggested

that U.S. officials are looking ahead in case the approach, which faces

formidable obstacles, proves unsuccessful.

Although President Obama has pushed hard to draw the Islamic Republic to the

negotiating table, some U.S. officials and many outside experts have doubts that

outreach efforts will succeed. And the likely next step, an effort to organize

tougher international economic sanctions, faces strong resistance from Russia,

China and India.

Some senior figures in the Obama administration have suggested that the U.S.

might have to live one day with the reality of an Iranian bomb.

Defense Undersecretary Ashton B. wrote before joining the administration

that if diplomacy failed, the fallback was a policy of " containment and

punishment. "

Samore, the chief of nonproliferation at the National Security Council,

wrote before Obama was elected that Iran would probably act like other

nuclear-armed states and was not likely to give terrorists the bomb.

The United States offers extensive military equipment and commitments to a

number of Middle Eastern countries, including Iraq and Saudi Arabia.

A " defense umbrella " suggests that the United States would promise to retaliate

against any strike on the protected countries, a policy it follows for Japan and

South Korea.

Clinton didn't say that the United States would offer the protection of a

" nuclear umbrella. " But Dobbins, a former U.S. diplomat now with the Rand

Corp., said that with the enormous U.S. conventional forces in the region, the

United States probably wouldn't need such a promise to retaliate.

Although Clinton's words didn't necessarily indicate a policy shift, " they do

suggest they're seriously considering the requirements of deterrence, " Dobbins

said.

Clinton's suggestion drew a quick reaction from the Israeli government, which

feels threatened by Iran's nuclear program and has been pushing the U.S. and

other countries to move aggressively to halt it.

Dan Meridor, Israel's minister of intelligence and atomic energy, told Israel's

Army Radio: " I was not thrilled to hear the American statement from yesterday

that they will protect their allies with a nuclear umbrella -- as if they have

already come to terms with a nuclear Iran. I think that's a mistake. "

Clinton said her goal was to convince Iran's leaders that the bomb would be of

little benefit.

" We want Iran to calculate what I think is a fair assessment: that if the U.S.

extends a defense umbrella over the region, if we do even more to support the

military capacity of those in the Gulf, it's unlikely that Iran will be any

stronger or safer, because they won't be able to intimidate and dominate, as

they apparently believe they can, once they have a nuclear weapon. "

Dobbins said Clinton's comments probably also were aimed at reassuring Iran's

neighbors and convincing them that they do not need to build their own nuclear

weapons if Tehran acquires the know-how.

There are wide fears that countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia would feel

compelled to launch their own weapons programs if Tehran gained nuclear weapons

capability.

Clinton said that Iran " faces the prospect, if it pursues nuclear weapons, of

sparking an arms race in the region. That should affect the reality of what Iran

intends to do. "

Clinton's warning on North Korea was another sign that the administration is

deeply reluctant to try to buy North Korea's participation in the 6-year-old

six-nation disarmament talks, as past administrations have done, and is largely

focusing on containing the proliferation of nuclear and missile equipment.

Both the Clinton and Bush administrations offered sweeteners for Pyongyang to

resume talks. But Clinton insisted that the five countries presented a " united

front " and that North Korea needed to undergo a " complete and irreversible

denuclearization " before it will receive any additional rewards.

The chief U.S. goal in recent weeks has been to persuade other Asian countries

to help enforce a United Nations resolution that calls for blocking shipments of

banned weapons and halting international financing of North Korea's arms trade.

Clinton said that Russia, China, South Korea and Japan have agreed to cooperate

in implementing the resolution.

paul.richter@...

Special correspondent McDermid in Phuket, Thailand, contributed to this

report.