Guest guest Posted September 2, 2008 Report Share Posted September 2, 2008 I have no idea what little to no sun spot activity may really mean reaslistically - however I do find the article fascinating :-) > > _http://www.dailytech.com/Sun+Makes+History+First+Spotless+Month+in+a+ Century/ > article12823.htm_ > (http://www.dailytech.com/Sun+Makes+History+First+Spotless+Month+in+a+ Century/article12823.htm) > > > Science _Sun Makes History: First Spotless Month in a Century_ > (http://www.dailytech.com/Sun+Makes+History+First+Spotless+Month+in+a+ Century/article12823.h > tm) > _ Asher_ (http://www.dailytech.com/ContactStaff.aspx?id=44) _(Blog)_ > (http://www.dailytech.com/blogs/~masher) - September 1, 2008 8:11 AM > > > > > > > The record-setting surface of the _sun_ > (http://www.dailytech.com/Sun+Makes+History+First+Spotless+Month+in+a+ Century/article12823.htm#) . A full month has > gone by without a single spot (Source: Solar and Heliospheric Observatory > (SOHO)) > > Sunspot activity of the past decade. Over the past year, SIDC has > continually revised its predictions downward (Source: Solar Influences Data Center) > > Geomagnetic solar activity for the past two decades. The recent drop > corresponds to the decline in sunspots. (Source: Watts) > > A chart of sunspot activity showing two prior solar minima, along with > heightened activity during the 20th century (Source: Wikimedia Commons) > > Drop in solar activity has potential effect for climate on earth. > > The sun has reached a milestone not seen for nearly 100 years: an entire > month has passed without a single visible sunspot being noted. > The event is significant as many climatologists now _believe_ > (http://www.dailytech.com/Solar+Activity+Diminishes+Researchers+Predic t+Another+Ice+Age/articl > e10630.htm) solar magnetic activity †" which determines the number of > sunspots -- is an influencing factor for climate on earth. > According to _data_ (http://www.astro.ucla.edu/~obs/cur_drw.html) from Mount > Observatory, UCLA, more than an entire month has passed without a > spot. The last time such an event occurred was June of 1913. Sunspot _data_ > (http://www.dailytech.com/Sun+Makes+History+First+Spotless+Month+in+a+ Century/artic > le12823.htm#) has been collected since 1749. > When the sun is active, it's not uncommon to see sunspot numbers of 100 or > more in a single month. Every 11 years, activity slows, and numbers briefly > drop to near-zero. Normally sunspots return very quickly, as a new cycle > begins. > But this year -- which corresponds to the start of Solar Cycle 24 -- has been > extraordinarily long and quiet, with the first seven months averaging a > sunspot number of only 3. August followed with none at all. The astonishing rapid > drop of the past year has defied predictions, and caught nearly all > astronomers by surprise. > In 2005, a pair of astronomers from the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in > Tucson attempted to publish a paper in the journal Science. The pair looked > at minute spectroscopic and magnetic changes in the sun. By extrapolating > forward, they reached the startling result that, within 10 years, sunspots would > vanish entirely. At the time, the sun was very active. Most of their peers > laughed at what they considered an unsubstantiated conclusion. > The journal ultimately rejected the paper as being too controversial. > The paper's lead author, Livingston, tells DailyTech that, while the > refusal may have been justified at the time, recent data fits his theory > well. He says he will be " secretly pleased " if his predictions come to pass. > But will the rest of us? In the past 1000 years, three previous such events > -- the Dalton, Maunder, and Spörer Minimums, have all led to rapid cooling. > One was large enough to be called a " mini ice age " . For a society dependent on > agriculture, cold is more damaging than heat. The growing season shortens, > yields drop, and the occurrence of crop-destroying frosts increases. > Meteorologist Watts, who runs a climate data auditing site, tells > DailyTech the sunspot numbers are another indication the " sun's dynamo " is > idling. According to Watts, the effect of sunspots on TSI (total solar > irradiance) is negligible, but the reduction in the solar magnetosphere affects cloud > formation here on Earth, which in turn modulates climate. > This theory was originally proposed by physicist Henrik Svensmark, who has > published a number of scientific papers on the subject. Last year Svensmark's > " SKY " experiment claimed to have proven that galactic cosmic rays -- which the > sun's magnetic field partially shields the Earth from -- increase the > formation of molecular clusters that promote cloud growth. Svensmark, who recently > published a _book_ > (http://www.amazon.com/Chilling-Stars-Theory-Climate- Change/dp/1840468157/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1? ie=UTF8 & s=books & qid=1220235207 & sr=8-1) on the > theory, says the relationship is a _larger factor_ > (http://www.spacecenter.dk/publications/scientific-report- series/Scient_No._3.pdf/view) in climate > change than greenhouse gases. > Solar physicist Ilya Usoskin of the University of Oulu, Finland, tells > DailyTech the correlation between cosmic rays and terrestrial cloud cover is more > complex than " more rays equals more clouds " . Usoskin, who notes the sun has > been more active since 1940 than at any point in the past 11 centuries, says > the effects are most important at certain latitudes and altitudes which > control climate. He says the relationship needs more study before we can understand > it fully. > Other researchers have proposed solar effects on other terrestrial processes > besides cloud formation. The sunspot cycle has strong effects on irradiance > in certain wavelengths such as the far ultraviolet, which affects ozone > production. Natural production of isotopes such as C-14 is also tied to solar > activity. The overall effects on climate are still poorly understood. > What is incontrovertible, though, is that ice ages have occurred before. And > no scientist, even the most skeptical, is prepared to say it won't happen > again. > > Article Update, Sep 1 2008. After this story was published, the NOAA > reversed their previous decision on a tiny speck seen Aug 21, which gives their > version of the August data a half-point. Other observation centers such as > Mount Observatory are still reporting a spotless month. So depending on > which center you believe, August was a record for either a full century, or > only 50 years. > > ____________________________________ > > > > > > **************It's only a deal if it's where you want to go. Find your travel > deal here. > (http://information.travel.aol.com/deals?ncid=aoltrv00050000000047) > Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.