New Autism Cases Declining

July 15, 2004

Kids are counted from 3 years old to 21 years old in Kidscount at the US Dept.

of Education. I use the same year in and year out ages 6-21 for the 50 states,PR

and DC and will continue to use that. But if I see the charts for 3-21, I will

pass those along.

Recently, FYI, I heard from parents in Florida that the authorities there were

changing the autism diagnosis they had to mental retardation. Whether something

is going on regarding that, it is anybody's guess.

Also, in the past, Massachusetts had very small increases until, Massachusetts

corrected their counting of autism cases.

Here is a sample..........

1992-1993 493

1999-2000 446

2000-2001 575

2001-2002 2,681

2002-2003 3,193

As you can see there was a steady count between the 400's and 500's with actual

up and down figures until

the years 2001-2002, there was this big jump. The state of Massachusetts just

had a problem there when it came to autism counts.

Over the years, people have said that autism was a genetic disorder, but when

autism went from 1 in 500 children, five years ago, 1 in 250 children, two years

ago, and now that the CDC and AAP says autism is 1 in 166, then there is a

question as to whether autism is a genetic disorder simply for the the fact that

there has never been a genetic epidemic and with these figures, autism is an

epidemic.

Now, because the figures are declining in California for autism, proponents of

thimerosal in the vaccines are saying that there is a decline in autism and it

is due to thimerosal being taken out of the vaccines. Well, there are 49 other

states in the US and just as

Massachusetts was incorrect in their figures, there could be a problem in

California. Only time will tell as we see the US Dept. of Education figures for

this year 2003-2004 and next year 2004-2005.

Now, if what is happening in California happens across the US and elsewhere

where they take out the thimerosal in the vaccines, then we can all go home

knowing that thimerosal in the vaccines was THE answer to the cause of autism

and children can be chelated and we can all live happily ever after (I say this

tongue in cheek).

I strongly do NOT believe it is the case and it is more complex than that. That

it involves autoimmunity and vaccines(with the MMR vaccine being one of those

vaccines as seen in the case of Dr. Singh and Dr. Wakefield). But then who am I

to rain on anyone's parade that thinks the autism epidemic is solely due to

thimerosal being in the vaccines. Time will tell if I'm right or wrong.

Ray

According to information released today by the California State Department

of Developmental Services (DDS), California's developmental services system has

just experienced the first ever nine month sustained reduction in the numbers of

professionally diagnosed new cases of full syndrome autism being added to

California's developmental services system.

The data compares new intakes from the most current three consecutive

quarterly periods (October 2003 through June 2004) to all other previous October

through June time periods.

Not only did the most recent three consecutive quarter period produce the

first sustained reduction in the 35 year history of California's developmental

services system (197 fewer new cases then the previous October through June

period), but the most current recently completed quarter, April 2004 through

June 2004, produced the all time largest reduction of any quarter (108 less

cases) in the history of the system.

DDS only reports professionally diagnosed cases of full syndrome DSM IV

autism and DOES NOT include PDD, NOS, Asperger's Syndrome, or any other autism

spectrum disorder in this reporting category. The numbers reported by DDS do not

include children under the age of three years old.

Historically, the four to six year old age group dominate the new intake

population. Within the past few months, for the first time, children born in the

years 1999 and 2000 are now entering the system.

What makes this historic development of this very recent reduction in new

cases of autism so important is that those children from the birth cohorts of

1999 and 2000 are now entering the system. First with the year 1999 and much

more so with year 2000, these are the widely recognized first two years of the

beginning of the serious effort to substantially reduce the amount of the

mercury containing preservative Thimerisol in childhood vaccines.

Could this be the beginning of the decline of the autism epidemic? Have we

discovered a " smoking gun " environmental factor that has contributed to the

epidemic?

California, with the world's best record keeping system, is the de facto

" canary in the coal mine " in tracking new cases of autism. In 1999 the first DDS

report on autism established for the first time the existence of a growing

autism epidemic. A report released by DDS in 2003 documented a doubling of the

autism caseload from 1999-2002.

Recently published groundbreaking research initiated and funded by the U.C.

M.I.N.D. Institute, and conducted by Dr. Mady Hornig at Columbia

University, has established a biological mechanism in an animal model that

combines genetic susceptibility and Thimerisol poisoning which results in

behaviors in the animal model very similar to human autistic behaviors. Autism

like brain pathology was also discovered in these animals. Many more of these

independent studies currently being conducted at M.I.N.D. and at other

facilities around the world will shed more light on the viral/bacterial/toxin

interaction with genetic susceptibilities in the coming months.

Please see the DDS data below, and review the attachments which include an

important chart and complete data spread sheet.

# of new cases Increase over previous

April though June

three quarter period

increase from

previous year

Oct. - Dec., 1999

Jan. - March 2000 1331 --

--

April - June 2000

Oct. - Dec., 2000

Jan. - March 2001 1930 599

176

April - June 2001

Oct. - Dec., 2001

Jan. - March 2002 2314 384

182

April - June 2002

Oct. - Dec., 2002

Jan. - March 2003 2391 77

-15

April - June 2003

Oct. - Dec. 2003

Jan. - March 2004 2194 -197

-108

April. - June 2004

July 15, 2004

_____

From: Jeff Sell [mailto:jzsell@...]

Sent: Thursday, July 15, 2004 8:56 AM

Jeff Sell (jzsell@...)

Subject: New Autism Cases Declining

New Autism Cases Declining

According to information released today by the California State

Department of Developmental Services (DDS), California's developmental

services system has just experienced the first ever nine month sustained

reduction in the numbers of professionally diagnosed new cases of full

syndrome autism being added to California's developmental services system.

California, with the world's best record keeping system, is the de

facto " canary in the coal mine " in tracking new cases of autism. In 1999 the

first DDS report on autism established for the first time the existence of a

growing autism epidemic. A report released by DDS in 2003 documented a

doubling of the autism caseload from 1999-2002.

Could this be the beginning of the decline of the autism epidemic?

Have we discovered a " smoking gun " environmental factor that has contributed

to the epidemic? DDS only reports professionally diagnosed cases of full

syndrome DSM IV autism and DOES NOT include PDD, NOS, Asperger's Syndrome,

or any other autism spectrum disorder in this reporting category. The

numbers reported by DDS do not include children under the age of three years

old.

Historically, the four to six year old age group dominates the new

intake population. Within the past few months, for the first time, children

born in the years 1999 and 2000 are now entering the system.

Not only did the most recent three consecutive quarter period produce

the first sustained reduction in the 35 year history of California's

developmental services system (197 fewer new cases then the previous October

through June period), but the most current recently completed quarter, April

2004 through June 2004, produced the all time largest reduction of any

quarter (108 less cases) in the history of the system.

Please see the DDS data below, and review the attachments which

include an important chart and complete data spread sheet.

Recently published groundbreaking research initiated and funded by the

U.C. M.I.N.D. Institute, and conducted by Dr. Mady Hornig at Columbia

University, has established a biological mechanism in an animal model that

combines genetic susceptibility and Thimerosal poisoning which results in

behaviors in the animal model very similar to human autistic behaviors.

Autism like brain pathology was also discovered in these animals. Many more

of these independent studies currently being conducted at M.I.N.D. and at

other facilities around the world will shed more light on the

viral/bacterial/toxin interaction with genetic susceptibilities in the

coming months.

The data compares new intakes from the most current three consecutive

quarterly periods (October 2003 through June 2004) to all other previous

October through June time periods.

What makes this historic development of this very recent reduction in

new cases of autism so important is that those children from the birth

cohorts of 1999 and 2000 are now entering the system. First with the year

1999 and much more so with year 2000, these are the widely recognized first

two years of the beginning of the serious effort to substantially reduce the

amount of the mercury containing preservative Thimerosal in childhood

vaccines.

Increase April though June

No. Of over previous increase from

new cases 3 Quarter Period previous year

Oct. - Dec., 1999

Jan. - March 2000 1331 -- --

April - June 2000

Oct. - Dec., 2000

Jan. - March 2001 1930 599 176

April - June 2001

Oct. - Dec., 2001

Jan. - March 2002 2314 384 182

April - June 2002

Oct. - Dec., 2002

Jan. - March 2003 2391 77 -15

April - June 2003

Oct. - Dec. 2003

Jan. - March 2004 2194 -197 -108

April. - June 2004

July 15, 2004

New Autism Cases Declining

SCHAFER AUTISM REPORT Thursday, July 15, 2004

Vol. 8 No. 114

[This report and analysis from California autism advocate Rick

Rollens.]