Re: Live Long? Die Young? Answer Isn’t Just in Genes

[Guest guest]

Hi folks:

That is an interesting article. But it has, I believe, an error that

is of significance for us here. The author defined current life

expectancy as:

" ....................... life expectancy, which estimates how long

people born today are expected to live. "

My understanding is that life expectancy for, say, 2006 is defined as:

The age a hypothetical average person would live if they experienced

the exact same survival probabilities as those that exist in 2006 at

each single year of age from zero on up.

That is very different from the author's 'definition'.

The difference is demonstrated by the fact that the average person

dying today dies at the age of ~68. While life expectancy in 2006 is

about ~78. Similarly, if historical trends persist people born in

2006 will live a lot longer than 78 years if one can make the

reasonable assumption that death rates at all ages (from zero on up)

will improve in the future. And the population group aged 50 today

will enjoy far superior survival rates in future years than those

that prevailed for those aged 50 to 100 in the year they were born -

1956.

Rodney.

--- In , Jeff Novick <chefjeff40@...>

wrote:

>

> http://tinyurl.com/o2rsq

>

> NYTimes

> August 31, 2006

>

> Live Long? Die Young? Answer Isn't Just in Genes

> By GINA KOLATA

> phine Tesauro never thought she would live so

> long. At 92, she is straight backed, firm jawed and

> vibrantly healthy, living alone in an immaculate brick

> ranch house high on a hill near McKeesport, a

> Pittsburgh suburb. She works part time in a hospital

> gift shop and drives her 1995 white Oldsmobile Cutlass

> Ciera to meetings of her four bridge groups, to church

> and to the grocery store. She has outlived her

> husband, who died nine years ago, when he was 84. She

> has outlived her friends, and she has outlived three

> of her six brothers.

>

> Mrs. Tesauro does, however, have a living sister, an

> identical twin. But she and her twin are not so

> identical anymore. Her sister is incontinent, she has

> had a hip replacement, and she has a degenerative

> disorder that destroyed most of her vision. She also

> has dementia. " She just does not comprehend, " Mrs.

> Tesauro says.

>

> Even researchers who study aging are fascinated by

> such stories. How could it be that two people with the

> same genes, growing up in the same family, living all

> their lives in the same place, could age so

> differently?

>

[Guest guest]

Hi folks:

Here is the Wikipedia definition of life expectancy, which no doubt

is better worded than mine (lol):

" Thus, typical life expectancies for the current year reflect current

age-specific death rates and are not predictions or projections about

life expectancy or mortality in the future. Since, in general,

longevity is increasing in human societies, the current life

expectancy statistic for a given society will be an underestimate of

the actual average life span of people born today. For this reason,

if someone bore an infant in 2005 in a society in which the " life

expectancy at birth " (e0) was 70 years in 2005, it is likely that

this child will live longer than 70 years. "

Rodney.

> >

> > http://tinyurl.com/o2rsq

> >

> > NYTimes

> > August 31, 2006

> >

> > Live Long? Die Young? Answer Isn't Just in Genes

> > By GINA KOLATA

> > phine Tesauro never thought she would live so

> > long. At 92, she is straight backed, firm jawed and

> > vibrantly healthy, living alone in an immaculate brick

> > ranch house high on a hill near McKeesport, a

> > Pittsburgh suburb. She works part time in a hospital

> > gift shop and drives her 1995 white Oldsmobile Cutlass

> > Ciera to meetings of her four bridge groups, to church

> > and to the grocery store. She has outlived her

> > husband, who died nine years ago, when he was 84. She

> > has outlived her friends, and she has outlived three

> > of her six brothers.

> >

> > Mrs. Tesauro does, however, have a living sister, an

> > identical twin. But she and her twin are not so

> > identical anymore. Her sister is incontinent, she has

> > had a hip replacement, and she has a degenerative

> > disorder that destroyed most of her vision. She also

> > has dementia. " She just does not comprehend, " Mrs.

> > Tesauro says.

> >

> > Even researchers who study aging are fascinated by

> > such stories. How could it be that two people with the

> > same genes, growing up in the same family, living all

> > their lives in the same place, could age so

> > differently?

> >

>