RE: Does the fact that it is spreading really matter right now...?

[Guest guest]

My concern is that when it goes H to H that we won't know it in time to prevent it from spreading worldwide. A person is infectious several days prior to symptoms and even known to have the flu. At that point no one will know it was an H to H transmission. By the time they figure that out hundreds, even thousands of people will have been infected and spread it to even more people.

Cat~www.niteflytes.us

[Flu] Does the fact that it is spreading really matter right now...?

H5N1 virus might spread to every country in the world. But until itbecomes a virus that is spread human to human it will not be a realthreat. And when that happens it will have to start spreading againfor it to become a threat. I mean, the fact that the 'bird' versionof the virus is all over the place will not really matter. The strainof it which jumps from human to human will have to start from square one.I firmly belive that we can get this thing under control if we reallywork at it. But my greatest fear continues to be that it might spreadin parts of the globe where health care infrastructures are weak, likein Africa and Asia. If the virus takes hold in those places it willbe a long time before it is eliminated. And those places will become'generators' of the virus, which will create an ongoing danger for therest of the world. Pete

[Guest guest]

The spread in birds also matters because the human cases were mostly

spread by infected birds. as far as I know one third of the Asian human

cases might have been cased by a human to human transmission, they just

can't prove it.

Elke

Cat~ wrote:

My concern is that when it goes H to

H that we won't know it in time to prevent it from spreading worldwide.

A person is infectious several days prior to symptoms and even known to

have the flu. At that point no one will know it was an H to H

transmission. By the time they figure that out hundreds, even thousands

of people will have been infected and spread it to even more people.

Cat~

www.niteflytes.us

-----

Original Message -----

From:

Pete

To:

Flu

Sent:

Sunday, February 12, 2006 4:08 PM

Subject:

[Flu] Does the fact that it is spreading really matter right

now...?

H5N1 virus might spread to every country in the world. But

until it

becomes a virus that is spread human to human it will not be a real

threat. And when that happens it will have to start spreading again

for it to become a threat. I mean, the fact that the 'bird' version

of the virus is all over the place will not really matter. The strain

of it which jumps from human to human will have to start from square

one.

I firmly belive that we can get this thing under control if we really

work at it. But my greatest fear continues to be that it might spread

in parts of the globe where health care infrastructures are weak, like

in Africa and Asia. If the virus takes hold in those places it will

be a long time before it is eliminated. And those places will become

'generators' of the virus, which will create an ongoing danger for the

rest of the world.

Pete

[Guest guest]

Part of the problem too is that we don't even know if it will go H to H transmission. Cat~ <niteflytes@...> wrote: My concern is that when it goes H to H that we won't know it in time to prevent it from spreading worldwide. A person is infectious several days prior to symptoms and even known to have the flu. At that point no one will know it was an H to H transmission. By the time they figure that out hundreds, even thousands of people will have been infected and spread it to even more people. Cat~www.niteflytes.us [Flu] Does the fact that it is spreading really matter right now...? H5N1 virus might spread to every country in the world. But until itbecomes a virus that is spread human to human it will not be a realthreat. And when that happens it will have to start spreading againfor it to become a threat. I mean, the fact that the 'bird' versionof the virus is all over the place will not

really matter. The strainof it which jumps from human to human will have to start from square one.I firmly belive that we can get this thing under control if we reallywork at it. But my greatest fear continues to be that it might spreadin parts of the globe where health care infrastructures are weak, likein Africa and Asia. If the virus takes hold in those places it willbe a long time before it is eliminated. And those places will become'generators' of the virus, which will create an ongoing danger for therest of the world. Pete . Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie . Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind. -Dr.Seuss . It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke Ellington

[Guest guest]

True. It could be an entirely different strain of influenza that could lead to a pandemic and H5N1 could fizzle out and go dormant. Too many unknowns....

Cat~www.niteflytes.us

[Flu] Does the fact that it is spreading really matter right now...?

H5N1 virus might spread to every country in the world. But until itbecomes a virus that is spread human to human it will not be a realthreat. And when that happens it will have to start spreading againfor it to become a threat. I mean, the fact that the 'bird' versionof the virus is all over the place will not really matter. The strainof it which jumps from human to human will have to start from square one.I firmly belive that we can get this thing under control if we reallywork at it. But my greatest fear continues to be that it might spreadin parts of the globe where health care infrastructures are weak, likein Africa and Asia. If the virus takes hold in those places it willbe a long time before it is eliminated. And those places will become'generators' of the virus, which will create an ongoing danger for therest of the world. Pete

.. Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie

.. Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind. -Dr.Seuss

.. It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke Ellington

[Guest guest]

This is just why I get so annoyed when I read alarmist headlines which only provoke fear and panic in people. Yes, it's true that this could mutate to a h-h transmissible form; but it's equally as true that it could not. The important thing to remember is that H5N1 is a disease of birds, most notably of wild birds infecting flocks of chickens.Cat~ <niteflytes@...> wrote: True. It could be an entirely different strain of influenza that could lead to a pandemic and H5N1 could fizzle out and go dormant. Too many unknowns.... Cat~www.niteflytes.us [Flu] Does the fact that it is spreading really matter right now...? H5N1 virus might spread to every country in the world. But until itbecomes a virus that is spread human to human it will not be a realthreat. And when that happens it will have to start spreading againfor it to become a threat. I mean, the fact that the 'bird' versionof the virus is all over the place will not really matter. The strainof it which jumps from human to human will have to start from square one.I firmly belive that we can get this thing under control if we reallywork at it. But my greatest fear continues to be that it might spreadin parts

of the globe where health care infrastructures are weak, likein Africa and Asia. If the virus takes hold in those places it willbe a long time before it is eliminated. And those places will become'generators' of the virus, which will create an ongoing danger for therest of the world. Pete . Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie . Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind. -Dr.Seuss . It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke

Ellington . Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie . Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't

mind. -Dr.Seuss . It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke Ellington

[Guest guest]

There are only two mutations left before it has sustained H2H infection. The experts say that it could be tomorrow that it jumps, and that we should be ready for it.

Who to believe?

I find the headlines much less then alarmist.

[Flu] Does the fact that it is spreading really matter right now...?

H5N1 virus might spread to every country in the world. But until itbecomes a virus that is spread human to human it will not be a realthreat. And when that happens it will have to start spreading againfor it to become a threat. I mean, the fact that the 'bird' versionof the virus is all over the place will not really matter. The strainof it which jumps from human to human will have to start from square one.I firmly belive that we can get this thing under control if we reallywork at it. But my greatest fear continues to be that it might spreadin parts of the globe where health care infrastructures are weak, likein Africa and Asia. If the virus takes hold in those places it willbe a long time before it is eliminated. And those places will become'generators' of the virus, which will create an ongoing danger for therest of the world. Pete

.. Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie

.. Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind. -Dr.Seuss

.. It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke Ellington

.. Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie

.. Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind. -Dr.Seuss

.. It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke Ellington

[Guest guest]

I don't follow your logic, . It sounds like you think that

the only things worth being alarmed about are 100% certainties. If

the virus has the potential to become the killer of hundreds of

millions of people, then why shouldn't people be alarmed? Just

because it might not happen does not in any way lessen the

seriousness of the situation. People need to be alarmed because of

the consequences of the result if it does happen.

And it is not just the media that is broadcasting alarms. The CDC,

WHO, the UN, almost every epidemiological expert to voice an opinion

is giving the most dire warnings and urgings to prepare. And the

people who don't pay attention or scoff at the experts will either be

happily self-satisfied that they were right and the experts wrong or

they will be caught unprepared for the one of the biggest disasters

the world has ever seen, and quite possibly lose their lives and the

lives of their families in the process. I hope that the virus will

just die out before those last two mutations occur, but I can't see

burying my head in the sand just because it is not a 100% certainty.

If anything, the media is being too quiet on this issue.

My concern is that when it

goes H to H that we won't know it in time to prevent it from

spreading worldwide. A person is infectious several days prior to

symptoms and even known to have the flu. At that point no one will

know it was an H to H transmission. By the time they figure that out

hundreds, even thousands of people will have been infected and spread

it to even more people.

>

> Cat~

> www.niteflytes.us

> [Flu] Does the fact that it is spreading really

matter right now...?

>

>

> H5N1 virus might spread to every country in the world. But until it

> becomes a virus that is spread human to human it will not be a real

> threat. And when that happens it will have to start spreading again

> for it to become a threat. I mean, the fact that the 'bird' version

> of the virus is all over the place will not really matter. The

strain

> of it which jumps from human to human will have to start from

square one.

>

> I firmly belive that we can get this thing under control if we

really

> work at it. But my greatest fear continues to be that it might

spread

> in parts of the globe where health care infrastructures are weak,

like

> in Africa and Asia. If the virus takes hold in those places it will

> be a long time before it is eliminated. And those places will

become

> 'generators' of the virus, which will create an ongoing danger for

the

> rest of the world.

> Pete

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

> . Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie

> . Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind

don't matter and those who matter don't mind. -Dr.Seuss

> . It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke

Ellington

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

[Guest guest]

My concern is that people will become so alarmed they might not pay attention to the things they can do to protect themselves and their loved ones from getting infected. A healthy alarm is a good thing so long as it doesn't turn into mindless panic. I have learned in my 65 years of life that there is nothing at all certain in this world, but I also know that people who are uninformed about some potential threat do tend to over-react and often do dumb things rather than sensible things. I was in the clinical area of nursing when the AIDS epidemic was at its height in San Francisco. Even after we knew how the disease is spread, many people - even some of my colleagues - chose to live in a state of panic. And still today the amount of ignorance in the general populace about this particular illness is astonishing and somewhat disappointing since the facts are easy enough to come by. In the matter of H5N1, I would be happy for more media coverage; but

let the actual facts be given so that people are sensibly prepared.Don <DCFrench@...> wrote: I don't follow your logic, . It sounds like you think that the only things worth being alarmed about are 100% certainties. If the virus has the potential to become the killer of hundreds of millions of people, then why shouldn't people be alarmed? Just because it might not happen does not in any way lessen the seriousness of the situation. People need to be alarmed because of the consequences of the result if it does happen. And it is not just the media that is broadcasting alarms. The CDC, WHO, the UN, almost every epidemiological expert to voice an opinion is giving the most dire warnings and urgings to prepare. And the people who don't pay attention or scoff

at the experts will either be happily self-satisfied that they were right and the experts wrong or they will be caught unprepared for the one of the biggest disasters the world has ever seen, and quite possibly lose their lives and the lives of their families in the process. I hope that the virus will just die out before those last two mutations occur, but I can't see burying my head in the sand just because it is not a 100% certainty. If anything, the media is being too quiet on this issue. My concern is that when it goes H to H that we won't know it in time to prevent

it from spreading worldwide. A person is infectious several days prior to symptoms and even known to have the flu. At that point no one will know it was an H to H transmission. By the time they figure that out hundreds, even thousands of people will have been infected and spread it to even more people.> > Cat~> www.niteflytes.us> [Flu] Does the fact that it is spreading really matter right now...?> > > H5N1 virus might spread to every country in the world. But until it> becomes a virus that is spread human to human it will not be a real> threat. And when that happens it will have to start spreading

again> for it to become a threat. I mean, the fact that the 'bird' version> of the virus is all over the place will not really matter. The strain> of it which jumps from human to human will have to start from square one.> > I firmly belive that we can get this thing under control if we really> work at it. But my greatest fear continues to be that it might spread> in parts of the globe where health care infrastructures are weak, like> in Africa and Asia. If the virus takes hold in those places it will> be a long time before it is eliminated. And those places will become> 'generators' of the virus, which will create an ongoing danger for the> rest of the world. > Pete> > > > > > >

> > . Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie > . Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind. -Dr.Seuss> . It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke Ellington> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >

[Guest guest]

Yes, it could be tomorrow or next year or never. There's nobody to believe about this because it's entirely unpredictable. I live in earthquake country. A serious earthquake in San Francisco could kill thousands. Yes, I'm as prepared as I can be for such an event (also unpredictable) but I can't live my life in a panic about it.Lynn Aker <lynn@...> wrote: There are only two mutations left before it has sustained H2H infection. The experts say that it could be tomorrow that it jumps, and that we should be ready for it. Who to believe? I find the headlines

much less then alarmist. [Flu] Does the fact that it is spreading really matter right now...? H5N1 virus might spread to every country in the world. But until itbecomes a virus that is spread human to human it will not be a realthreat. And when that happens it will have to start spreading againfor it to become a threat. I mean, the fact that the 'bird' versionof the virus is all over the place will not really matter. The strainof it which jumps from human to human will have to start from square one.I firmly belive that we can get this thing under control if we reallywork at it. But my greatest fear continues to be that it might spreadin parts of the globe where health care infrastructures are weak,

likein Africa and Asia. If the virus takes hold in those places it willbe a long time before it is eliminated. And those places will become'generators' of the virus, which will create an ongoing danger for therest of the world. Pete . Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie . Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind. -Dr.Seuss . It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke

Ellington . Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie . Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind. -Dr.Seuss . It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke Ellington . Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie . Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind. -Dr.Seuss . It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke Ellington

[Guest guest]

Do you think people on this list are

alarmed and panicked by the subject lines here? I believe that you are the only

one that has said that they were annoyed or alarmed by the subject lines. Who

is living their life in a panic? I feel like the more informed we are the

less likely we are to panic. I know that I joined this forum for information,

which includes the headlines.

I have found the public to be very unconcerned about the headlines. I

have never talked to anyone that was in a panic or alarmed about the bird flu news.

Perhaps you know someone alarmed.

Lynn

From:

Flu [mailto:Flu ] On Behalf Of

Sent: Monday, February 13, 2006

9:13 PM

Flu

Subject: Re: [Flu] Does

the fact that it is spreading really matter right now...?

Yes, it could be tomorrow or next year or never. There's nobody

to believe about this because it's entirely unpredictable. I live in

earthquake country. A serious earthquake in San Francisco could kill thousands.

Yes, I'm as prepared as I can be for such an event (also unpredictable) but I

can't live my life in a panic about it.

Lynn Aker

<lynn@...> wrote:

There are only two mutations left before it has sustained

H2H infection. The experts say that it could be tomorrow that it jumps, and

that we should be ready for it.

Who to believe?

I find the headlines much less then alarmist.

[Flu]

Does the fact that it is spreading really matter right now...?

H5N1 virus might spread to

every country in the world. But until it

becomes a virus that is spread human to human it

will not be a real

threat. And when that happens it will have

to start spreading again

for it to become a threat. I mean, the fact

that the 'bird' version

of the virus is all over the place will not really

matter. The strain

of it which jumps from human to human will have to

start from square one.

I firmly belive that we can get this thing under

control if we really

work at it. But my greatest fear continues

to be that it might spread

in parts of the globe where health care

infrastructures are weak, like

in Africa and Asia.

If the virus takes hold in those places it will

be a long time before it is eliminated. And

those places will become

'generators' of the virus, which will create an

ongoing danger for the

rest of the world.

Pete

.. Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie

.. Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who

mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind. -Dr.Seuss

.. It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke Ellington

.. Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie

.. Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who

mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind. -Dr.Seuss

.. It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke Ellington

.. Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie

.. Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who

mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind. -Dr.Seuss

.. It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke Ellington

[Guest guest]

No. But sometimes you see words in various newspaper headlines that tend to promote panic in people. Just going through some of the news items that have been posted here will show you what I mean. Good solid factual information is the antidote to panic; and I think the print media should look to this as it would be of great service to many people. It's the facts we need, not the fear. You can't do anything with fear, but you can work with facts in a sensible way.Lynn Aker <lynn@...> wrote: Do you think people on this list are alarmed and panicked by the subject lines here? I believe that you are the only one that has said that they were annoyed or

alarmed by the subject lines. Who is living their life in a panic? I feel like the more informed we are the less likely we are to panic. I know that I joined this forum for information, which includes the headlines. I have found the public to be very unconcerned about the headlines. I have never talked to anyone that was in a panic or alarmed about the bird flu news. Perhaps you know someone alarmed. Lynn From:

Flu [mailto:Flu ] On Behalf Of Sent: Monday, February 13, 2006 9:13 PMFlu Subject: Re: [Flu] Does the fact that it is spreading really matter right now...? Yes, it could be tomorrow or next year or never. There's nobody to believe about this because it's entirely unpredictable. I live in earthquake country. A serious earthquake in San Francisco could kill thousands.

Yes, I'm as prepared as I can be for such an event (also unpredictable) but I can't live my life in a panic about it.Lynn Aker <lynn@...> wrote: There are only two mutations left before it has sustained H2H infection. The experts say that it could be tomorrow that it jumps, and that we should be ready for it. Who to believe? I find the headlines much less then alarmist. [Flu] Does the fact that it is spreading really matter right now...? H5N1 virus might spread to every country in the world. But until itbecomes a virus that is spread human to human it will not be a realthreat. And when that happens it will have to start spreading againfor it to become a threat. I mean, the fact that the 'bird' versionof the virus is all over the place will not really matter. The strainof it which jumps from human to human will have to start from square one.I firmly belive that we can get this thing under control if we reallywork at it. But

my greatest fear continues to be that it might spreadin parts of the globe where health care infrastructures are weak, likein Africa and Asia. If the virus takes hold in those places it willbe a long time before it is eliminated. And those places will become'generators' of the virus, which will create an ongoing danger for therest of the world. Pete . Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie . Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind. -Dr.Seuss .

It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke Ellington . Never place a

period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie . Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind. -Dr.Seuss . It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke Ellington . Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie . Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind. -Dr.Seuss . It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke

Ellington . Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie . Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind.

-Dr.Seuss . It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke Ellington