Re: Experts call for creating US bird flu czar

[Guest guest]

A bird flu czar sounds like a good idea; but it'll probably turn out to be some ineffective toady. These are the kinds of people our president likes to put it important jobs ... like what's-his-name who used to run FEMA. Coy <catherinecoy@...> wrote:

WASHINGTON, Oct 12 (Reuters) - The United States needs a top official, backed by authority and cash, to prepare for a possible bird flu pandemic, experts said on Wednesday.

But the United States, and most other countries, are so badly behind in preparing for disease outbreaks in general that it will take years to catch up, they told a briefing of Congressional staffers.

"We need to make sure that in the federal government we have clear leadership," said Levi of the nonprofit Trust for Americas Health, which sponsored the briefing.

In the meantime, if H5N1 avian flu makes the jump from birds into humans, all that can be done is to minimize damage.

"This virus cannot now be eradicated from the planet," said Dr. Tara O'Toole, director of the Center for Biosecurity of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center, based in Baltimore.

"It is in too many birds in too many places."

The especially virulent H5N1 strain of avian influenza has been found in Asian flocks from Japan to Indonesia. It has been found in migrating waterfowl in Mongolia and Kazakhstan and officials in Turkey fear it has spread there, although test results are pending.

The virus has infected 117 people in four countries, killing 60, and is steadily mutating. Experts say it is only a matter of time before birdflu changes enough to make it a disease that transmits easily from human to human.

These changes may also make it less virulent -- but they may also make it more dangerous. No one knows.

O'Toole said other "pressing issues" should be put aside while preparations for a pandemic are dealt with, she said.

"This is a special situation and calls for special organizational measures," she said.

'NATION-BUSTING ISSUE'

"What we are talking about is not just another health issue -- it is a nation-busting issue," she added.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services is due to release its pandemic influenza plan any time now, but leaked versions suggest little has been done to prepare a creaky public health system for a devastating outbreak of disease.

Levi said the plan should provide details of how to fund each step. "We are going to need some serious money for us to implement a really good plan for us to be prepared," he said.

Levi and O'Toole called for public health professionals to staff a new federal office, with expertise in vaccines, drug development and communicating to the public.

At the very least, the experts told the briefing, the United States needs to begin stockpiling antiviral drugs and speed up work on new, quicker ways to make flu vaccine.

But there is only a limited supply of the two drugs known to work against H5N1 avian flu -- Gilead <GILD.O> and Roche's <ROG.VX> oseltamivir or Tamiflu and GlaxoKline's <GSK.N> <GSK.L> zanamivir or Relenza.

Hospitals, already at capacity, will be unable to cope with any surge in patient numbers.

O'Toole said the federal government needs to know who is infected and where and what equipment and supplies are available. Hospitals need to be prepared to care for the sick.

"We will need to protect the well," she added.

President W. Bush has called for special measures to use the military to enforce quarantines, and the Pentagon said on Wednesday it was looking at possible scenarios. But the experts said quarantines will not provide much help.

"Quarantines are not going to work in containing influenza," O'Toole said. "Even if it was possible to cordon off a city ... that is not going to contain influenza."

People become contagious before they even begin to feel sick or show symptoms, and remain contagious long after they feel well. This is called "shedding virus" and it is one reason all types of influenza are so difficult to fight.

More at: http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/N12583534.htm

Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie

[Guest guest]

wrote: A bird flu czar

sounds like a good idea; but it'll probably turn out to be some ineffective

toady.

I’m tellin’

ya, the more I hear, the more convinced I am that the

only sure fire way to survive is to isolate yourself

for the duration. I’m surprised

this plausible solution isn’t being talked about more.

[Guest guest]

It's not being talked about because at this point it doesn't seem an option, at least not to the "powers that be". My question though is: how long is the duration?

What the govt has to concern itself with now is that no birds, especially chickens and ducks, get infected. And for us, the best thing to do now is to stay away from birds. What's not being talked about on the govt level is what to do with birds. How do we protect them from getting infected?

The important thing to remember is that this virus has not mutated in such a way that it is being passed from human to human. We don't even know if that will happen because it's not fully understood what mutation has to occur and how long that will take. Coy <catherinecoy@...> wrote:

wrote: A bird flu czar sounds like a good idea; but it'll probably turn out to be some ineffective toady.

I’m tellin’ ya, the more I hear, the more convinced I am that the only sure fire way to survive is to isolate yourself for the duration. I’m surprised this plausible solution isn’t being talked about more.

Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie

[Guest guest]

wrote: My question

though is: how long is the duration?

That’s what I want to know! For those to whom isolation is a reasonable

response, how long would that be? I’m

prepared to hunker down no matter how long it takes, but I’d like to know

how long to plan for.

[Guest guest]

I would rather have the States left to do as they wish to prepare for

this: better to have many different plans which may work to differing

degrees than one big plan which we might find fails us all.

> A bird flu czar sounds like a good idea; but it'll probably turn out

to be some ineffective toady. These are the kinds of people our

president likes to put it important jobs ... like what's-his-name who

used to run FEMA.

[Guest guest]

We know that the damn thing has leapt from birds to pigs to civets.

When it hit pigs, they said that pigs were so close to humans that we

would be next. It will leap to other species, just when our turn will

come is not known but the best answer is that it will occur soon.

Laurie Garrett said that if we were lucky not to get hit this Fall,

then we should expect it next year. This is especially true now that

we can see the similarities between bird flu and Spanish flu

> The important thing to remember is that this virus has not mutated in

such a way that it is being passed from human to human. We don't even

know if that will happen because it's not fully understood what

mutation has to occur and how long that will take.

[Guest guest]

It's almost impossible to predict that since diseases just don't arrive one day and then vanish in a week or so. As I recall - and my memory is fuzzy here - the 1918 pandemic was around for a couple of months. Coy <catherinecoy@...> wrote:

wrote: My question though is: how long is the duration?

That’s what I want to know! For those to whom isolation is a reasonable response, how long would that be? I’m prepared to hunker down no matter how long it takes, but I’d like to know how long to plan for.

Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie

[Guest guest]

Each state's circumstances will be different because of population densities and various demographics. It should be a state matter. One size will not fit all - it never does.Lee <jackalope_lepus@...> wrote:

I would rather have the States left to do as they wish to prepare for this: better to have many different plans which may work to differing degrees than one big plan which we might find fails us all.> A bird flu czar sounds like a good idea; but it'll probably turn out to be some ineffective toady. These are the kinds of people our president likes to put it important jobs ... like what's-his-name who used to run FEMA.

Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie

[Guest guest]

Have you seen anything where it has spread pig to pig or civet to civet or even more alarming pig to civet? I've not heard about this.Lee <jackalope_lepus@...> wrote:

We know that the damn thing has leapt from birds to pigs to civets. When it hit pigs, they said that pigs were so close to humans that we would be next. It will leap to other species, just when our turn will come is not known but the best answer is that it will occur soon. Laurie Garrett said that if we were lucky not to get hit this Fall, then we should expect it next year. This is especially true now that we can see the similarities between bird flu and Spanish flu> The important thing to remember is that this virus has not mutated in such a way that it is being passed from human to human. We don't even know if that will happen because it's not fully understood what mutation has to occur and how long that will take.

Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie