Upping the Autism Ante Nat'l Journal Wash DC Neil Munro 4-24-04

April 27, 2004

Upping the Autism Ante

by Neil Munro

National Journal - Washington, DC

Issues & Ideas: Medicine 04-24-2004

Record numbers of children have been diagnosed with severe

autism over the past few

years, and many parents suspect that mercury-based

preservatives in vaccines are the

cause. Officials at the Centers for Disease Control and

Prevention, which sets vaccination

policies, have just released partial details of anew

analysis that seems to exonerate the

preservative.

But parents and some scientists were quick to criticize the

analysis. The details provided

by the CDC are too vague, said Mark Blaxill, a board member

of one parents' advocacy

group, Safe Minds. " The thing we need is to get the right

answer, not the answer that

either side wants. "

The stakes in this debate are high. If the parents' claims

are correct, the CDC's vaccine

policies over the past decade have caused autism in tens of

thousands of children. Many

thousands more may have suffered less-severe brain damage,

the parents say. If their

argument is scientifically validated, the careers of many

vaccine professionals will be

damaged, as will the financial health of some vaccine

makers. If the parents and their allies

are wrong, they are diverting attention from other,

potentially better avenues of research.

The growth in autism rates is difficult to track, but

California’s Department of

Developmental Services has the most-detailed data. In the

first quarter of 2004, the state

added 795 severely autistic children to its treatment

program; the number of new patients

was 173 during the same period in1994. That kind of growth

has boosted the number of

severely autistic children in the California system from

5,281 in 1994 to24,297 in 2004.

The severely autistic have a normal lifespan but require

lifetime support costing more than

$1 million. According to the parents and some scientists, a

mercury preservative,

Thimerosal, which is used in many vaccines, has increased

the incidence of autism.

Thimerosal is still in use, and many infants received extra

doses of it after 1990, when

CDC officials recommended additional vaccinations.

In response to growing concerns, CDC officials in June

1999asked companies to stop

using Thimerosal in vaccines. They also conducted a study,

results of which were

published in the November 2003 issue of Pediatrics; the

article said " no consistent

significant associations were found " between the

Thimerosal-containing vaccines and

disorders such as autism. The study was based on a huge

database maintained by HMOs

on the West Coast.

But the lead author of the article, Verstraeten, said

recently that the article " does

not state that we found evidence against an association, "

and he also recommended

additional study. Also, Mark Geier, a vaccine specialist in

private practice who provides

expert testimony for plaintiffs suing vaccine makers,

conducted a study of the same

database at the request of Rep. Dave Weldon, R-Fla. Geier's

study tested the hypothesis

that children who had received Thimerosal in all four shots

of the combined diphtheria,

tetanus, and pertussis vaccine were more likely to be

autistic than those who got no

Thimerosal in their four shots. Geier said his study

revealed 10 times as many cases of

autism among children given Thimerosal.

" That's a very nice hypothesis ... [and the result] was very

concerning to us, " researcher

told a February meeting of the National Academy

of Sciences. is

aco-author of the CDC's article in Pediatrics. He is

employed at the Center for Health

Studies, a commercial research center that has contracted

with the CDC to study vaccine

safety. The research center also receives funding from

vaccine makers. It is owned by

Group Health ative, an HMO that provided part of the

database for the CDC

study. is also an untenured research professor at the

University of Washington in

Seattle.

" We attempted to replicate [Geier's] analysis using the

exact same data, " told the

NAS audience, and discovered a rate of autism among children

given Thimerosal 18 times

greater than among those who received none. But because the

children in Geier’s study

were of various ages, he said, " we reanalyzed the data " to

compensate for the differing

ages. The new analysis showed " no statistical association "

between Thimerosal and

autism, said.

But Blaxill says that 's analysis " is dramatically

different " from the Geier study, partly

because it includes many children too young to be identified

as autistic. Children can be

diagnosed as autistic before turning 3, but most diagnoses

aren’t made until after age 3.

declined to provide National Journal with a detailed

description of his analysis, but

the CDC e-mailed additional information about it showing

that a high percentage of

children in the analysis were underage 2.

Geier said his study had already compensated for age

differences by examining children

who had gotten all four of their DTP shots. This selection

ensured that all the children in

his study were at least 18 months old, he said. All the

children were under age 3, he said,

because he was not allowed to examine post-2000 data.

If the parents' claims are true, Blaxill said, the reduced

use of Thimerosal after 2000 will

reduce the number of new autism diagnoses within a few

years. This month, Rick Rollens,

a California autism activist, combed through state data and

reported that the number of

new autism cases over the past six months, as compared with

the same period 12 months

ago, dipped 6percent, from 1,560 to 1,471. A few more

quarters are needed to confirm

the trend, Blaxill said, but " that's the acid test. "

###

National Journal

April 27, 2004

I'm concerned though that blaxill is according to this article,

thinking that there WAS reduced use of thimerosal after 2000... I

don't buy it! I think there was some slight reduction but I think a

lot of kids still got quite a bit of thimerosal, particularly given

the fact that they started recommending flu shots for pregnant women

and babies a couple of years ago and that was prior to their current

effort to make the 1 microgram of mercury version available to babies

6 months and under, as they are saying they will do this fall. I

don't know... I'm just not buying it. I think that to expect that

autism rates are about to drop off and publicly stating it is leaving

a door wide open for criticism. What if they don't drop off within

the next year or two because the mercury was still being used so

much. It may take a while to see a drop, esp given how the Geiers

held up bottles of thimerosal containing vaxes in front of the IOM.

They're still out there...

W

--- In , " Hokkanen " <

If the parents' claims are true, Blaxill said, the reduced

use of Thimerosal after 2000 will

reduce the number of new autism diagnoses within a few

years. This month, Rick Rollens,

a California autism activist, combed through state data and

reported that the number of

new autism cases over the past six months, as compared with

the same period 12 months

ago, dipped 6percent, from 1,560 to 1,471. A few more

quarters are needed to confirm

the trend, Blaxill said, but " that's the acid test. "

April 27, 2004

Some states numbers have gone down on the younger kids...which would show less

thimerosal for all those " well baby visits " .....Each state, MD's office,,etc is

different as far as old vs new vaccines....

merrywbee <maryandphilip@...> wrote: I'm concerned though that blaxill

is according to this article,