Specter Of Flu Outbreak Haunts Doctors

[Guest guest]

Specter Of Flu Outbreak Haunts Doctors

December 22, 2003

ATLANTA (AP) -- Some U.S. hospitals are already struggling to deal with the

current flu outbreak. But that is nothing compared to what would happen

if a powerful new flu strain exploded into a worldwide flu outbreak,

known as a pandemic.

Patients would overwhelm hospitals, and

the overflow would have to be housed elsewhere, such as schools -- which

would already be closed. Nurses, already in short supply, could not

possibly get to everyone. And there would be even fewer doctors and

nurses once they, too, started getting sick.

There would not be enough antiviral

drugs or ventilators to take care of the elderly, who are most at risk of

dying from flu.

" Pandemic flu is a special

challenge ... it has a much greater potential for the disruption of the

function of society, " said Dr. Duchin.

As chief of communicable disease control, epidemiology and immunization

for Seattle-King County's public health department in Washington state, Duchin is one of

the many health officials wrestling with the challenge.

" It's arguably the most significant

biological disaster that could ever afflict a community, " he said.

Many public health officials say the

country needs to do much more to ready itself for such a disaster, and

U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Tommy said last week

that work is under way on a national preparedness plan.

HHS expects $50 million from Congress

for pandemic flu planning, including research into ways of speeding up

flu vaccine manufacturing. The department will ask for $100 million more

in fiscal year 2005.

A pandemic can happen if different flu

strains swap genetic information and mutate into a new strain that

people's bodies have no immunity against and that is easily spread from

person to person.

Health experts say the world is overdue

for such an event.

The last pandemics were the Hong Kong flu in the late 1960s, when 34,000 died in the United States, and the Asian flu of 1957-58 that killed about

70,000 in this country. The 1918 Spanish flu killed roughly 20 million

worldwide, half a million of them in the United States.

These days, even an ordinary flu

epidemic can kill an estimated 36,000 Americans.

" The world will be in deep trouble

if the impending influenza pandemic strikes this week, this month or even

this year, " wrote Drs. Webster and Webby, of the St.

Jude Children's Research Hospital infectious disease department, in an article last

month in the journal Science. " The time for talking is truly over.

We must be prepared. "

In some ways, the country is better

prepared than it was a few years ago. The Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks jump-started health agency and

government planning for everything from chemical spills to bioterrorism.

But much remains to be done.

Many hospitals have disaster plans that

address pandemic flu, but they lack specifics, said Bentley, senior

vice president for strategic policy planning for the American Hospital

Association.

A pandemic likely would force hospitals

to put overflow patients in their hallways or cafeterias, or even into

other public facilities such as armories or school, Bentley said.

And only a quarter of state health

departments have specific pandemic flu plans, according to a recent study

from the nonprofit group Trust for America's Health.

" The only way that large metro

areas or any area like ours can be prepared for pandemic flu is through

an all-hazards approach that's robust enough to deal with pandemic

flu, " said Dr. Alonzo Plough, public health director for Seattle-King

County. " It's a common kind of defense that would work for a wide

variety of agents. "

Defense also involves regular updates:

350 hospital, fire and police officials met earlier this month to assess

how the Seattle area reacted to the last health crisis, SARS.

" If pandemic flu hit we do not have

the level of preparedness that we would like to have, " Plough said.

" But we're better than we were. "

So far this year, 42 children have died

of the flu in the United States, a number that worries federal officials. The

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday characterized the

outbreak as a likely epidemic and ordered field teams to help states deal

with the outbreak.

While the current flu season is not a

pandemic, it has shown the difficulty in fighting the disease. There have

been flu shot shortages, and the slow process of making the vaccine means

no more can be made in time to be effective this season.

" The health care system is clearly

stressed and would be stressed further in the event of a pandemic, "

said Dr. Schaffner, a Vanderbilt University flu expert. " There's not a solution for a

large volume of patients. It's an ever larger problem if it's a

pandemic. "

Internationally, health experts aren't

confident that some countries -- as in the case of the early days of SARS

in China -- will fully disclose everything they know to meet

the threat.

The World Health Organization has

developed ways to rapidly convey information and provide samples of

threatening flu strains to countries, but WHO officials stress that their

plan does not enable them to predict when a pandemic might strike. They

also warn that many countries lack the ability to adequately prepare for

a pandemic.

" I don't think one should ever

envision that they're completely prepared, " said Bentley of the

American Hospital Association. " The difficulty with pandemic flu ...

is that it's a communicable disease and if you can't contain it at the

start -- and you often can't -- it can get away from you. "

Copyright 2003 The

Associated Press. All rights reserved.

Much

Love,

Deanna

LUPUS

Serenity Prayer...

Lord, grant me the

serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things

I can, and the wisdom to hide the bodies of doctors I shot when they said,

You're perfectly healthy, it's all in your head "