The Worldwatch Report: Approaching the Threshold

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THE WORLDWATCH REPORT: APPROACHING THE THRESHOLD

Date: April 5, 1999

From: http://www.enn.com

Monday, April 5, 1999

By Lester R. Brown

One reason more people are aware of the environmental underpinnings

of their lives now is that many more have been directly affected by

environmental disruptions.

And even when events don't impinge directly, media coverage is more

likely to expose the damage now than a decade ago.

Among the events that are mobilizing public concern, and therefore

support for restructuring the economy, are fishery collapses, water

shortages, rain forests burning uncontrollably, sudden die-offs of

birds, dolphins and fish, record heat waves, and storms of

unprecedented destructiveness.

Weather-related damages are now so extensive that insurance companies

can no longer use linear models from the past to calculate risks in

the future. When the cost of insuring property rises sharply in the

future, as now seems inevitable, millions of people may take notice --

including many who have not before.

Are we indeed moving toward a social threshold which, once crossed,

will lead to a dizzying rate of environmentally shaped economic change

on a scale that we may not now even imagine? No one knows for sure,

but some of the preconditions are clearly here. An effective response

to any threat depends on a recognition of that threat, which is broad

enough to support the response.

There is now a growing worldwide recognition outside the

environmental community that the economy we now have cannot take us

where we want to go. Three decades ago, it was only environmental

activists who were speaking out on the need for change, but the ranks

of activists have now broadened to include CEOs of major corporations,

government ministers, prominent scientists, and even intelligence

agencies.

Getting from here to there quickly is the challenge. But at least we

have a clear sense of what has to be done. The key to restructuring

the global economy is restructuring the tax system. Seven European

countries, led by Germany, are advancing on this front.

New institutional initiatives, too, are helping set the stage for the

economic restructuring. For example, ecological labeling of consumer

products is being implemented as a means of raising awareness -- and

shifting purchasing priorities -- in several industries. Consumers who

want to protect forests from irresponsible logging practices now have

the option of buying only products that come from those forests that

are being managed in a certifiably responsible way.

In the United States, even electric power can now be purchased from

" green " sources in some areas, if the consumer so chooses. Public

awareness of the differences among energy sources is raised

significantly, as each power purchaser is confronted with the

available options.

Another institutional means for expressing public preferences is

government procurement policy. If national or local governments decide

to buy only paper that has a high recycled content, for example, they

provide market support for economic restructuring. And governments,

like individual users, can become " green " consumers by opting for

climate-benign sources of electricity.

Trying times require bold responses, and we are beginning to see

some, such as the decision by Ted , the founder of

Broadcasting and Cable News Network (CNN), now part of the Time Warner

complex, to contribute $1 billion to the United Nations to be made

available at $100 million per year over the next 10 years.

Not only is committing a large part of his personal fortune to

dealing with some of the world's most pressing population

environmental, and humanitarian problems, but he is also urging other

billionaires, of whom there are now more than 600 in the world, not to

wait until their deaths to put money in foundations that might work on

these issues. He argues, quite rightly, that time is of the essence,

that right now we are losing the war to save the future.

In a world where the economy has expanded from $6 trillion in output

in 1950 to $39 trillion in 1998, new collisions between the expanding

economy as now structured and its environmental support systems are

occurring somewhere almost daily. Time is running out.

The Aral Sea has died. Its fisheries are gone. The deterioration of

Indonesia's rainforests may have reached the point of no return. We

may not be able to save the glaciers in Glacier National Park.

The key to quickly gaining acceptance of the new economic model is to

accelerate the flow of information about how the old model is now

destroying its natural support systems. Some governments are now doing

this. For example, beginning in late summer of 1997, the Clinton White

House began holding press briefings, regularly reporting new climate

findings. On June 8, 1998, Vice President Al Gore held a press

conference announcing that for the world, 1997 " was the warmest year

on record and we've set new temperature records every month since

January. " He went on to say, " This is a reminder once again that

global warming is real and that unless we act, we can expect more

extreme weather in the year ahead. "

Even China is taking steps toward more open dissemination of

information. In early 1998, Beijing became the 39th Chinese city to

start issuing weekly air quality reports since the beginning of 1997.

These reports, providing data on such indicators as the levels of

nitrous oxides from car exhaust and particulate matter from coal

burning, reveal that Chinese urban dwellers breathe some of the

world's most polluted air. Air pollution is estimated to cause 178,000

premature deaths per year, more than four times the number of

automobile fatalities in the United States.

" Who Will Feed China? " was initially banned in China, but is now

being promoted on Central Television. This new openness by the

government is expected to enhance public support for taking the steps

needed to control air pollution, whether it be restricting automobile

traffic, closing the most polluting factories, or shifting to clean

sources of energy. Information on how the inefficient use of water

could lead to food shortages can boost support for water pricing.

Media coverage of environmental trends and events is also increasing,

indicating a rising appreciation of their importance.

One could cite thousands of examples, but let me mention just two.

First is the media coverage given to the 1997/98 El Niño, the

periodic rise in the surface temperature of water in the eastern

Pacific that affects climate patterns worldwide. This is not a new

phenomenon. It has occurred periodically for as far back as climate

records exist. But the difference is in the coverage. In 1982/83 there

was an El Niño of similar intensity, but it did not become a household

word. In 1997/98, it did largely because a more enlightened community

of television meteorologists who report daily weather events

understood better how El Niño was affecting local climate.

Public recognition of the importance of El Niño was perhaps most

amusingly demonstrated for me last winter, when a large automobile

dealer in my area advertised that it was having an " El Niño " sale.

It was going to be a big one!

At a more specific level, in the fall of 1997, Time magazine produced

a special issue of its international edition under the headline " Our

Precious Planet: Why Saving the Environment Will be the Next Century's

Biggest Challenge. " As the title implies, the issue recognized -- in a

way few major news organizations have in the past -- the extraordinary

dimensions of the challenge facing humanity as we try to sustain

economic progress in the next century.

More and more people in both the corporate and political worlds are

now beginning to share a common vision of what an environmentally

sustainable economy will look like. If the evidence of a global

awakening were limited to one particular indicator, such as growing

membership in environmental groups, it might be dubious. But with the

evidence of growing momentum now coming from a range of key indicators

simultaneously, the prospect that we are approaching the threshold of

a major transformation becomes more convincing. The question is, if it

does come, whether it will come soon enough to prevent the destruction

of natural support systems on a scale that will undermine the economy.

As we prepare to enter the new century, no challenge looms greater

than that of transforming the economy into one that is environmentally

sustainable. This Environmental Revolution is comparable in scale to

the Agricultural Revolution and the Industrial Revolution. The big

difference is in the time available.

The Agricultural Revolution was spread over thousands of years. The

Industrial Revolution has been under way for two centuries. The

Environmental Revolution, if it succeeds, will be compressed into a

few decades. We study the archeological sites of civilizations that

moved onto economic paths that were environmentally destructive and

could not make the needed course corrections either because they did

not understand what was happening or could not summon the needed

political will. We do know what is happening. The question for us is

whether our global society can cross the threshold that will enable us

to restructure the global economy before environmental deterioration

leads to economic decline.

Lester Brown is president of Worldwatch Institute

Copyright 1999, Worldwatch Institute

Distributed by the Los Angeles Times Syndicate,