and US SE data

[Guest guest]

Way to go !

I have a few of my mathematician friends 'at work' working on

the details of this report. They enjoy squeezing numbers so I figured

some non-work related math stuff might pique their interest. They are of

course disappointed by the lack of 'other information' which would aid

their number squeezing but they've been known to work with less so .... :-)

I've noticed the Schafer folks are a wee bit lop-sided lately in their

reports. Aren't they suppose to be about healing Autism? Wouldn't this

involve reports all the facts?

Hey btw I have admit - it was me who removed you from the list ...

yep yep .. noticed you hadn't been posting lately so I wanted to get your

attention. :-)

and you have my vote as the 'glue' in the Parent Organization these days.

I few folks have faded out, which is unfortunate, but things are never

forever ....

doris

-land

.................................................................................\

..

From: " " <rmwilson@...>

Subject: Schafer Report: National Autism Prevalence Trends From U.S. Special

Education Data

Some of you may have seen the recent Shafer Report that published a summary

on the rate of Autism increase. The editor somehow concludes: .... " The rate

of increase appears to be slowing. This coincides with the slow removal of

Thimerosal from vaccines starting in 1999. -L.S. " .

This statement is clearly grasping at straws. the total increase is 27,524

the highest ever and needs to be compared to the total population in that

age group to determine if the rate of increase is rising or declining

Read my reply to Lenny Schafer below, and see the data underneath that,,

Thanks

_____________________________

Letter to the Editor - Schafer Report.

Lenny,

You wrote.... " The rate of increase appears to be slowing. This coincides

with the slow removal of Thimerosal from vaccines starting in 1999. -L.S. " .

Not true...

While the % increase seems to decline, this is because the base has risen at

such a rate. The absolute numbers for the total 6 - 21 years have increased

each year more in the last two years, following a big jump in '02 vs. 01.

The 3 - 5 years numbers show a very big jump in 04 and slightly smaller big

jump in 05 - this 05 jump is still substantially bigger than in 02 and 03,

when the younger cohorts began to be included in the data.

In overall terms, since 02, the total increase has increased every year -

'05 is the highest ever.

The data needs to be compared to the demographic distribution of children

registering - this is inconsistent as not all register.

To make the conclusion that you have made is not only misleading it is

completely erroneous!