Re: N. Korea deploys more multiple-launch rockets: sou...

[Guest guest]

Weapons wear out, they rust or just plain break even if they are just in storage. Shells and propellant also have shelf lives, meaning anything left over from the last war probably won't work. Even shells 20 years old could dangerous to use. You are right though that even if the shell doesn't explode it would have to be cleared and it would do kinetic energy damage to whatever it hit. By the same token, it would still wear on the weapon that fired it just like any other shell.

North Korea has many options for its nukes. It might be able to use a missile, but it cold also just strap it to a suicide jet and be over the DMZ or coast in a few minutes and reach Seoul. One could be put on a small sub which could surface off the coast upwind of major cities and explode. They could say it was a special very dirty bomb and cause a vast panic. They could have run a very deep tunnel, very quietly and hard to detect, right under Seoul itself. A carefully dug shaft leading up to raise the bomb sufficiently close to the surface and there you go.

There are many things within North Korea's power to cause damage and panic. They probably will wait until the US fleet is gone but since this is supposed to be the largest exercise ever, well, it certainly seems like someone is itching for their very own war. I've also seen a number of talking heads on TV and articles as well banging the war drum to finally take out North Korea. Some of these are former military men who should have a better grasp of reality than that. They might be thinking because we pushed a bunch of beggar level bandits out of power in Afghanistan (but crucially did NOT destroy them) and because we whipped Sadaam's raggedy, outdated, third world army in a couple of weeks (but again did NOT totally destroy it nor did we adequately secure the peace, and new reading has revealed just how terrible of a job we did)

, that we could easily beat up North Korea. Well, they've had decades to dig into those mountains. They have a large army and some of it is well trained and dangerous. They have a few reasonably modern weapons. They've had 9 years now to watch our method or warfighting and to know that our military has changed from one designed to fight large battles against other large forces to a counterterrorist which is highly dependent on technology and air weapons. Bear in mind also that they have chemical and probably biological weapons. If they think they will be destroyed, they will probably use them.

In a message dated 12/3/2010 2:17:09 A.M. Eastern Standard Time, no_reply writes:

I believe the North has more conventional weapons than we give them credit for. One gets the idea that they re-armed as fast as possible after the armistice, and have been manufacturing weapons ever since. I'm betting they have far more missiles and cannons than they are openly displaying, although I may be wrong about that. It just doesn't make sense to display everything you have up front. If I were them, I would have cannons hidden and camoflagued, and stored underground, etc.

[Guest guest]

You're right. The propaganda has also been telling the people that as terrible as things are in North Korea were, the rest of the world was far worse. Since the state had total control over information, the people had no way of knowing otherwise. As the truth has begun the filter into the country, people are waking up, but how many of them would revolt is unknown. Even if they do, they can't be counted on to be effective, although they might distract NK soldiers away from the main fighting. Then again, if a war does break out and the people rise up, but the war ends quickly, those people would surely be slaughtered, much like the Kurds and Marsh Arabs are the 1991 Gulf War when they were first encouraged to rise and then were left to twist in the wind.

There are also insane amounts of funding thrown into propaganda, especially glorifying Kim Jong Il.

[Guest guest]

" Weapons wear out, they rust or just plain break even if they are just in

storage. "

True. However, with artillary pieces, which have to have their barrels changed

out during fighting anyway, you could keep the barrels oiled in a tight room,

and only disperse them just before they are about to be used.

I've read accounts of 25th Infantry Tunnel Rats going into spider holes,

wandering around for a while, and coming across small artillary pieces

disassembled and stored underground in crates filled up with grease to keep them

from rusting.

Administrator

[Guest guest]

" The propaganda has also been telling the people that as terrible as things are

in North Korea were, the rest of the world was far worse. Since the state had

total control over information, the people had no way of knowing otherwise. As

the truth has begun the filter into the country, people are waking up, but how

many of them would revolt is unknown. "

Information filtering in from the outside world may be all that is needed for

North Korea to go to war. NK's government wouldn't want their people to lose

hope before a fight to gain back South Korea takes place.

The problem with propaganda in NK's case is that once their armies started

seeing themselves getting destroyed by high tech weapons while they themselves

fight with relatively primative ones, they would begin to doubt what their

leaders had been telling them about the outside world and might surrender fairly

quickly.

On the other hand, they might fight with fanatical resistance anyway, like Japan

did in WWII.

Administrator

[Guest guest]

Artillery barrels aren't that easy to replace, even though it is usually just the liner that gets replaced. What really takes a beating is the recoil system and the frame. We'll just have to wait and see how it all works, if it comes to war.

In a message dated 12/3/2010 1:36:26 P.M. Eastern Standard Time, no_reply writes:

True. However, with artillary pieces, which have to have their barrels changed out during fighting anyway, you could keep the barrels oiled in a tight room, and only disperse them just before they are about to be used. I've read accounts of 25th Infantry Tunnel Rats going into spider holes, wandering around for a while, and coming across small artillary pieces disassembled and stored underground in crates filled up with grease to keep them from rusting. Administrator

[Guest guest]

Which could be why they are being so belligerent now what with the transition of power and all. For the most part, two main scenarios have been planned for in Korea. The first would be a North Korean offensive into the South. It has long been believed that this could easily be countered through airpower and such. However, the US force over there is small, probably not more than 4,000 combat troops and not much in the way of an air force or large inventories of smart bombs. Folks need to remember that several times in the last decade we have nearly run out of smart weapons because production couldn't keep up with demand. The plan also is to hold up the NKs until reinforcements could be shipped in from the US or US bases in Japan. Since sea lift has been cut even though we are at war and much of the heavy forces are in the Middle East, it is going to take a long time to move troops and gear to South Korea. The South Korean military has also seen deep cuts over the years and military service is generally scorned by the young men, which is odd considering there is an active enemy right next door. So there is no telling how the smaller force will fare against NK. Still, an NK offensive would most likely fail. The bombardment of the front lines and Seoul would surely cause many casualties and economic disruption.

Invasion of the North was another option either as a first strike or more likely retaliation for the North's first strike. You are right about the Japanese comparison. They've been digging in for decades and even just a few dedicated snipers and machine gunners could wreak havoc on invading troops. It is likely they would still lose in the long run, but in the short run they could cause vast casualties. They could also hold out long enough for China to possibly yank America's chain economically, which could really kill two birds with one stone: They could let the war happen, North and South Korea bloody each other and let the US get involved, then step in as peacemaker with lots of behind the scenes pull. Not only could they get rid of their North Korea problem, or at least knock it down several notches, but they could make the US out to be a bully again for all the bombing, etc. Just think how much media play a hit on a bunker full of starving NK civilians would get.

In a message dated 12/3/2010 1:40:57 P.M. Eastern Standard Time, no_reply writes:

Information filtering in from the outside world may be all that is needed for North Korea to go to war. NK's government wouldn't want their people to lose hope before a fight to gain back South Korea takes place. The problem with propaganda in NK's case is that once their armies started seeing themselves getting destroyed by high tech weapons while they themselves fight with relatively primative ones, they would begin to doubt what their leaders had been telling them about the outside world and might surrender fairly quickly. On the other hand, they might fight with fanatical resistance anyway, like Japan did in WWII.Administrator

[Guest guest]

For the most part, two main scenarios have been planned for in Korea. The first would be a North Korean offensive into the South. It has long been believed that this could easily be countered through airpower and such. However, the US force over there is small, probably not more than 4,000 combat troops and not much in the way of an air force or large inventories of smart bombs. Folks need to remember that several times in the last decade we have nearly run out of smart weapons because production couldn't keep up with demand. The plan also is to hold up the NKs until reinforcements could be shipped in from the US or US bases in Japan. Since sea lift has been cut even though we are at war and much of the heavy forces are in the Middle East, it is going to take a long time to move troops and gear to South Korea. The South Korean military has also seen deep cuts over the years and military service is generally scorned by the young men, which is odd considering there is an active enemy right next door. So there is no telling how the smaller force will fare against NK. Still, an NK offensive would most likely fail. The bombardment of the front lines and Seoul would surely cause many casualties and economic disruption.

Invasion of the North was another option either as a first strike or more likely retaliation for the North's first strike. You are right about the Japanese comparison. They've been digging in for decades and even just a few dedicated snipers and machine gunners could wreak havoc on invading troops. It is likely they would still lose in the long run, but in the short run they could cause vast casualties. They could also hold out long enough for China to possibly yank America's chain economically, which could really kill two birds with one stone: They could let the war happen, North and South Korea bloody each other and let the US get involved, then step in as peacemaker with lots of behind the scenes pull. Not only could they get rid of their North Korea problem, or at least knock it down several notches, but they could make the US out to be a bully again for all the bombing, etc. Just think how much media play a hit on a bunker full of starving NK civilians would get.

If I were the North, I would have dug a bunch of tunnels that go from North Korea, under the demiltarized zone, and into South Korea through which I could pour a flood of troops.

I'd throw every missile I had at Seoul to "destroy" the capital, and then send the troops in to reach every part of the country they could, primarily small villages, so that it would require an exhausting and prolonged land war to get them out.

Supplies to keep the troops fed, watered, and with ammunition could come later through the tunnels.

If the propaganda campaigns worked in the North, the citizens could withstand bombing with the same degree of fanatacim that the German citizens had in WWII.

I'd also make as much use of the subs as I could before they were ferretted out and destroyed. This would mean sinking as many enemy ships as possible and then launching any missiles they were capable of launching at the enemy.

I think if the North thought it was going to lose, they'd nuke Seoul as retribution.

You're probably right about China. It would be in their interest not to interfere. They'd like nothing better than to force the US into bankruptcy by letting the US pay for another war, and by calling its debt.

Administrator