Re: N. Korea deploys more multiple-launch rockets: source

[Guest guest]

Those missiles and cannon have been there for a long time now and everyone has known it. Adding 100 more really doesn't make a difference. What is speculative, however, is if the missiles will work for reasons of quality control in production and the age of some of them, and how long the firing pieces will last. Some of them are also very old and upkeep wasn't a high priority. Failure rates are likely to be high. The number is impressive because that is likely more than the number of smart bombs that we have in theatre. It would be impossible even if we had enough bombs to suppress all those guns and missiles before they could do significant damage because of their number and dug in positions. I don't think it would take much shelling to send Seoul into a panic, regular drills for such a thing aside.

In a message dated 12/2/2010 6:02:41 P.M. Eastern Standard Time, no_reply writes:

"North Korea has recently increased the number of its multiple-launch rockets by 100 pieces to some 5,200," the source said on the condition of anonymity. "They can mount a concentrated attack from their bases on Seoul and its neighboring areas."With an effective shooting range of 60km, parts of the multiple-launch rocket system can fire 12 to 22 five-meter-long rockets, according to the source.

[Guest guest]

-- In FAMSecretSociety , VISIGOTH@... wrote:

"Those missiles and cannon have been there for a long time now and everyone has known it. Adding 100 more really doesn't make a difference. What is speculative, however, is if the missiles will work for reasons of quality control in production and the age of some of them, and how long the firing pieces will last. Some of them are also very old and upkeep wasn't a high priority. Failure rates are likely to be high. The number is impressive because that is likely more than the number of smart bombs that we have in theatre. It would be impossible even if we had enough bombs to suppress all those guns and missiles before they could do significant damage because of their number and dug in positions. I don't think it would take much shelling to send Seoul into a panic, regular drills for such a thing aside."

I believe the North has more conventional weapons than we give them credit for. One gets the idea that they re-armed as fast as possible after the armistice, and have been manufacturing weapons ever since. I'm betting they have far more missiles and cannons than they are openly displaying, although I may be wrong about that. It just doesn't make sense to display everything you have up front. If I were them, I would have cannons hidden and camoflagued, and stored underground, etc.

Ammunition is another matter. Anything that was produced after the amistice is likely to contain a lot of duds. It's what happens with unspend artillary. But even lobbing a shell that doesn't detonate has its value because it will cause fear wherever it lands that it MIGHT explode if touched.

One wonders why North Korea is so poor. Yes, we know of the famine, and of the sanctions, but I find it hard to believe that China would not secretly subsidize its neighbor in the hopes that it would simply join up with China. I am postulating that North Korea has, since the armastice, been sinking an inordinate amount of money into weapons production and research.

Certainly, they have demonstrated their ability to create their own medium range missiles, and then of course they have already demonstrated their nuclear capability.

I do believe that they have the technology to create an atomic bomb that can be dropped from a plane. The Hiroshima bomb didn't detonate when it hit the ground. It was set to explode a few hundred feet above the city. I am sure North Korea could construct something like this.

I do not believe they are capable of putting a nuclear warhead aboard a submarine launched missile yet. But I could be wrong.

At any rate, after watching all of this, my feeling is that they would be stupid to launch an attack on land. But my feeling is also that they are equally stupid for putting all of that hardware on display. All of it is a sitting target. More to the point, all of it has to be stored somewhere, and if they were to put them away again, they could be tracked back to their storage facilities, which I would think would be large and easily destroyed by some Tomohawk missiles. Underground facilities could be hit with bunker buster bombs.

My instinct is that they are going to wait until the US forces now drilling in the region leave before launching another attack, which will be of the kind we saw last month. But again, it would not take our ships very long to return and knock out those guns and launchers, so they ought to use them while they have them.

Interestingly, I notice that no article makes any inference that some of these deployed arms might be decoys. If you're broke, your country's best defense until you can afford weapons is to make it appear as though you are well armed.

Complicating factors is how the US would have to involve itself post-attack. North Korea is so brainwashed that they would be prone to accepting Chinese aid. If they got too friendly with China, they might just join up with them. While I do not think China sees much value in North Korea, per se, the country might be resurrected over time, and that is one thing China is good with. Look at how they trasnformed the Three Gorges area.

One final thing to think about is what sort of devious deeds the Chinese might get up to if there were a small war between the two Korea's. What if some missiles slammed into territories which China wants for itself. China could effectively wipe out military outposts and claim that South Korea did it. In the general confusion, I doubt anyone would bother to investigate too deeply about what truly happened.

Administrator

[Guest guest]

There are also insane amounts of funding thrown into propaganda, especially glorifying Kim Jong Il.

-- In FAMSecretSociety , VISIGOTH@... wrote:"Those missiles and cannon have been there for a long time now and everyone has known it. Adding 100 more really doesn't make a difference. What is speculative, however, is if the missiles will work for reasons of quality control in production and the age of some of them, and how long the firing pieces will last. Some of them are also very old and upkeep wasn't a high priority. Failure rates are likely to be high. The number is impressive because that is likely more than the number of smart bombs that we have in theatre. It would be impossible even if we had enough bombs to suppress all those guns and missiles before they could do significant damage because of their number and dug in positions. I don't think it would take much shelling to send Seoul into a panic, regular drills for such a thing aside."I believe the North has more conventional weapons than we give them credit for. One gets the idea that they re-armed as fast as possible after the armistice, and have been manufacturing weapons ever since. I'm betting they have far more missiles and cannons than they are openly displaying, although I may be wrong about that. It just doesn't make sense to display everything you have up front. If I were them, I would have cannons hidden and camoflagued, and stored underground, etc. Ammunition is another matter. Anything that was produced after the amistice is likely to contain a lot of duds. It's what happens with unspend artillary. But even lobbing a shell that doesn't detonate has its value because it will cause fear wherever it lands that it MIGHT explode if touched. One wonders why North Korea is so poor. Yes, we know of the famine, and of the sanctions, but I find it hard to believe that China would not secretly subsidize its neighbor in the hopes that it would simply join up with China. I am postulating that North Korea has, since the armastice, been sinking an inordinate amount of money into weapons production and research. Certainly, they have demonstrated their ability to create their own medium range missiles, and then of course they have already demonstrated their nuclear capability. I do believe that they have the technology to create an atomic bomb that can be dropped from a plane. The Hiroshima bomb didn't detonate when it hit the ground. It was set to explode a few hundred feet above the city. I am sure North Korea could construct something like this. I do not believe they are capable of putting a nuclear warhead aboard a submarine launched missile yet. But I could be wrong. At any rate, after watching all of this, my feeling is that they would be stupid to launch an attack on land. But my feeling is also that they are equally stupid for putting all of that hardware on display. All of it is a sitting target. More to the point, all of it has to be stored somewhere, and if they were to put them away again, they could be tracked back to their storage facilities, which I would think would be large and easily destroyed by some Tomohawk missiles. Underground facilities could be hit with bunker buster bombs. My instinct is that they are going to wait until the US forces now drilling in the region leave before launching another attack, which will be of the kind we saw last month. But again, it would not take our ships very long to return and knock out those guns and launchers, so they ought to use them while they have them. Interestingly, I notice that no article makes any inference that some of these deployed arms might be decoys. If you're broke, your country's best defense until you can afford weapons is to make it appear as though you are well armed. Complicating factors is how the US would have to involve itself post-attack. North Korea is so brainwashed that they would be prone to accepting Chinese aid. If they got too friendly with China, they might just join up with them. While I do not think China sees much value in North Korea, per se, the country might be resurrected over time, and that is one thing China is good with. Look at how they trasnformed the Three Gorges area.One final thing to think about is what sort of devious deeds the Chinese might get up to if there were a small war between the two Korea's. What if some missiles slammed into territories which China wants for itself. China could effectively wipe out military outposts and claim that South Korea did it. In the general confusion, I doubt anyone would bother to investigate too deeply about what truly happened.Administrator

[Guest guest]

There are also insane amounts of funding thrown into propaganda, especially glorifying Kim Jong Il.

-- In FAMSecretSociety , VISIGOTH@... wrote:"Those missiles and cannon have been there for a long time now and everyone has known it. Adding 100 more really doesn't make a difference. What is speculative, however, is if the missiles will work for reasons of quality control in production and the age of some of them, and how long the firing pieces will last. Some of them are also very old and upkeep wasn't a high priority. Failure rates are likely to be high. The number is impressive because that is likely more than the number of smart bombs that we have in theatre. It would be impossible even if we had enough bombs to suppress all those guns and missiles before they could do significant damage because of their number and dug in positions. I don't think it would take much shelling to send Seoul into a panic, regular drills for such a thing aside."I believe the North has more conventional weapons than we give them credit for. One gets the idea that they re-armed as fast as possible after the armistice, and have been manufacturing weapons ever since. I'm betting they have far more missiles and cannons than they are openly displaying, although I may be wrong about that. It just doesn't make sense to display everything you have up front. If I were them, I would have cannons hidden and camoflagued, and stored underground, etc. Ammunition is another matter. Anything that was produced after the amistice is likely to contain a lot of duds. It's what happens with unspend artillary. But even lobbing a shell that doesn't detonate has its value because it will cause fear wherever it lands that it MIGHT explode if touched. One wonders why North Korea is so poor. Yes, we know of the famine, and of the sanctions, but I find it hard to believe that China would not secretly subsidize its neighbor in the hopes that it would simply join up with China. I am postulating that North Korea has, since the armastice, been sinking an inordinate amount of money into weapons production and research. Certainly, they have demonstrated their ability to create their own medium range missiles, and then of course they have already demonstrated their nuclear capability. I do believe that they have the technology to create an atomic bomb that can be dropped from a plane. The Hiroshima bomb didn't detonate when it hit the ground. It was set to explode a few hundred feet above the city. I am sure North Korea could construct something like this. I do not believe they are capable of putting a nuclear warhead aboard a submarine launched missile yet. But I could be wrong. At any rate, after watching all of this, my feeling is that they would be stupid to launch an attack on land. But my feeling is also that they are equally stupid for putting all of that hardware on display. All of it is a sitting target. More to the point, all of it has to be stored somewhere, and if they were to put them away again, they could be tracked back to their storage facilities, which I would think would be large and easily destroyed by some Tomohawk missiles. Underground facilities could be hit with bunker buster bombs. My instinct is that they are going to wait until the US forces now drilling in the region leave before launching another attack, which will be of the kind we saw last month. But again, it would not take our ships very long to return and knock out those guns and launchers, so they ought to use them while they have them. Interestingly, I notice that no article makes any inference that some of these deployed arms might be decoys. If you're broke, your country's best defense until you can afford weapons is to make it appear as though you are well armed. Complicating factors is how the US would have to involve itself post-attack. North Korea is so brainwashed that they would be prone to accepting Chinese aid. If they got too friendly with China, they might just join up with them. While I do not think China sees much value in North Korea, per se, the country might be resurrected over time, and that is one thing China is good with. Look at how they trasnformed the Three Gorges area.One final thing to think about is what sort of devious deeds the Chinese might get up to if there were a small war between the two Korea's. What if some missiles slammed into territories which China wants for itself. China could effectively wipe out military outposts and claim that South Korea did it. In the general confusion, I doubt anyone would bother to investigate too deeply about what truly happened.Administrator