SafeMinds rebuttal to article on static ASD prevalence

[Guest guest]

It is incredible to believe that they are still trying to prove that

there is not an epidemic of ASD. I find denial of the epidemic more

disheartening than anything . . . See below SafeMinds response to

April 2006 article in Pediatrics.

New Study in Journal Pediatrics is Misleading

Department of Education Data Inadequate to Determine Prevalence Over

Time

AUTISM COMMUNITY CALLS NEW STUDY IN JOURNAL PEDIATRICS MISLEADING,

DECLARES AUTISM EPIDEMIC REAL -- Department of Education Data

Inadequate to Determine Prevalence Over Time

A study appearing in the April 2006 edition of Pediatrics

titled " Diagnostic Substitution and Changing Autism Prevalence " is

being questioned by the autism community. The report, authored by

Dr. Shattuck, uses US Department of Education data to support

the hypothesis that real autism rates have not increased over the

last two decades, and that reported increases are a function of

reclassification of students from learning disabilities and mental

retardation categories. This theory has been rejected in a number of

scientific studies. The autism community would like to see

scientific studies based on more valid databases in order to

determine accurate prevalence trends.

The autism parent organizations including SafeMinds, National Autism

Association, A-CHAMP, and Generation Rescue see this latest article

as part of a phenomenon of epidemic denial that inhibits open

scientific investigation of autism's causes and blocks allocation of

needed resources into autism. The groups note that the prevalence of

autism now far exceeds other high profile disorders such as cerebral

palsy, cystic fibrosis, and juvenile diabetes. They request that

autism be recognized as a national emergency and that unbiased

epidemiological studies be conducted that count both older and

younger people with autism to see if the increases are real.

The paper's use of Department of Education data to conclude no

epidemic exists is troubling. The study author himself said that the

data set is inconsistent and is subject to administrative and policy

changes by the states. He notes that 28 of the 48 states included in

the analysis do not support his theory of reclassification as a

reason for autism increases. " Each state has its own rules and the

autism rates by state vary greatly, so aggregating the state-level

data to a US average is not good statistical practice, " explained

Mark Blaxill of SafeMinds. " Other, more reliable data sets, like the

California Department of Developmental Disabilities, do show a real

increase in autism. "

Autism groups voiced support for the commentary by Dr. Craig

Newschaffer that accompanies the Shattuck article in Pediatrics.

This commentary makes a number of valid points regarding Dr.

Shattuck's approach and conclusions. The autism groups note that the

hypothesis of reclassification, or " diagnostic substitution " , has

been examined and rejected in several scientific papers as a likely

major factor in reported autism increases. One study was authored by

Dr. Newschaffer. A study by Byrd and a study by Blaxill,

Baskin and Spitzer have also ruled out diagnostic substitution.

For more information about the Shattuck study and autism prevalence

please see the following links.

Pediatrics, Journal of the American Academy of Pediatrics April 2006

Article: The Contribution of Diagnostic Substitution to the Growing

Administrative Prevalence of Autism in U.S. Special Education,

T. Shattuck, Ph.D.. The April 2006 issue of Pediatrics was not

available online at time of publication, but should be available

soon here .

Pediatrics, April 2006 Commentary: Investigating Diagnostic

Substitution and Autism Prevalence Trends, Craig J. Newschaffer,

Ph.D. The April 2006 issue of Pediatrics was not available online at

time of publication, but should be available soon here .

Pediatrics, April 2006, Commentary: Diagnostic Substitution and the

Changing Autism Prevalence, T. Shattuck, Ph.D. The April 2006

issue of Pediatrics was not available online at time of publication,

but should be available soon here .

Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders April 2003,

Commentary: Blaxill, Baskin & Spitzer on Croen et al (2002), The

Changing Prevalence of Autism in California

Journal of Autism and Developmental Disorders April 2003, Response:

A Response to Blaxill, Baskin & Spitzer on Croen et al (2002), The

Changing Prevalence of Autism in California, A. Croen and

Judith K. Gether

Public Health Reports, Nov-Dec 2004, What's Going On? The Question

of Time Trends in Autism, Mark Blaxill, MBA

The Epidemic of Autism in California: Report to the Legislature of

the Principal Findings from the Epidemiology of Autism in

California: A Comprehensive Pilot Study, October 17, 2002, S.

Byrd, M.D., M.P.H., et al

Pediatrics, March 2005, National Autism Prevalence Trends from

United States Special Education Data, Craig J. Newschaffer,

D. Falb and G. Gurney

Fighting Autism website for more information on Department of

Education data.