SWINE FLU: 50,000 'DEAD IN MONTHS' IN BRITAIN

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http://www.express.co.uk/posts/view/114092/Swine-flu-50-000-could-die-in-months

SWINE FLU: 50,000 'DEAD IN MONTHS'

Wednesday July 15 2009 byNikki Barr for express.co.uk

NEARLY 50,000 people in Britain could die of swine flu before a vaccine becomes

available, it emerged today.

Dr Margaret Chan, head of the World Health Organisation, today rubbished claims

by the Government that a reliable flu vaccine would be ready within weeks.

Instead she insisted it could be up to three months after a vaccine has been

developed before it is ready for widespread public use.

It means - on current Government projections of 100,000 new cases-a-day by the

end of August - there could be 45,500 deaths if clinical trials on a vaccine are

not completed until the end of November.

Dr Chan said: " There's no vaccine. One should be available in August. But having

a vaccine available is not the same as having a vaccine that has been proven

safe.

" Clinical trial data will not be available for another two to three months. "

Her comments came as Chief Medical Officer for England, Sir Liam son,

refused to rule out a death rate of one in 200 - the figure calculated by

experts at Imperial College, London yesterday.

Responding to Dr Chan's comments, Sir Liam said today: " As far as the UK is

concerned, we are still expecting to get 60 million doses of vaccine by the end

of the calendar year and for the first supplies to arrive in the early autumn.

" There is some uncertainty because vaccine manufacture involves a complex

process of testing biological products, so it can sometimes go wrong and cause

delays.

" We then have to license it properly and that may take a little time, but we

still will be one of the first countries in the world to get vaccine. "

Sir Liam said there is still a lot of uncertainty about how the disease will

develop.

He added: " Later this week, I will be putting out some planning assumptions to

the NHS.They need to know broadly what numbers of patients might be

hospitalised, what sort of pressure will be put on the NHS.

" Statistical modelling is very valuable, but we do need to treat it with caution

early on. "

Dr Chan's comments also cast doubt on Health Secretary Andy Burnham's claim that

the first stocks of vaccine could be expected to arrive next month.

Mr Burnham has said Britain is at the " front of the queue " for supplies of the

vaccine and would start to receive the first in August.

He said: " We have made very good plans in this country for this eventuality, for

being in this situation, and Britain is at the front of the queue in the world

for vaccine.

" We could not be in a better position. So as soon as stocks are made, the very

first vaccines will come to this country. We expect to get the first next

month. "

According to Sir Liam, between 30 to 35 per cent of people could contract the

virus this winter.

Previous estimates have suggested that up to half the population could become

infected.

He said: " The virus will not just be here for one winter - previous pandemics

have been around three, four, five years. "

Experts now fear a repeat of the complications caused during treatment of the

1970s outbreak of flu, which led to some patients developing Guillain-Barré

syndrom­e - a rare neurological disorder that causes paralysis.

Several drug companies are currently considering using ingredients used to

stretch a vaccine's active ingredient, which could allow for many more vaccine

doses. But little or no data exists on the safety of such vaccines.

It emerged yesterday that swine flu victim Dr Day died from natural

causes after suffering a blood clot to the lungs.

Another swine flu patient, Chloe Buckley, six, from West Drayton in west London,

died on Thursday at St 's Hospital in Paddington just 48 hours after

contracting the virus. A post-mortem is being carried out to establish the exact

cause of her death.

The number of UK deaths linked to the virus now stands at 17. There have been

nearly 10,000 confirmed UK cases but hundreds of thousands more are thought to

have the virus.

NHS Direct has dealt with more than 198,000 calls about swine flu since April

27.

Of these calls, 56 per cent of people were given advice on looking after

themselves at home, 10 per cent were given health information and 32 per cent

were referred to their GP for further assessment.

More than 1.4 million people have used the online cold and flu symptom checker

run by NHS Direct.