Why thinks this flu is especially bad

[Guest guest]

Why thinks this flu is especially bad

In th past, I have mentioned in bits and pieces why I think this H1N1 strain is bad. Now I am going to put them all together and add a few more bits and pieces.

Q: How bad is it at this exact moment?

A: Worse than it looks.

Let's remember that as early as March 15th, no one knew the H1N1 strain even existed. It was not until March 18 that the Mexican government started tracking a respiratory illness that was affecting the state of Veracruz. Suddely, we were seeing huge numbers of deaths and infections reported, but that was because they were tracing back deaths and infections which had actually occured over a month's time.

Since then (March 18) we've passed through exactly three months (March to April, April to May, May to June) and the World Health Organization or June 19th, 2009 reports 44,287 cases, with 180 deaths.

That looks pretty bad as it is, but the figures do not reflect current reports.

The WHO reports 44 US deaths on June 19, but on June 19, the US reports 87 deaths.

Thus the number of total deaths worldwide should really stand at 223 minimum.

If you factor into the equation that other countries are also behind in their reporting to the WHO, the figure ought to stand at about 240, minimum.

If you factor in the fact that most health agencies which report to the government agencies which report to the WHO are three days behind in reporting THEIR figures, the total number of deaths ought to stand at about 300 assuming 20 deaths a day world wide, which is a low figure all things considered. At the time of this writing, New York City alone reported 7 additional swine flu deaths.

http://www.wten.com/Global/story.asp?S=10564308

7 more deaths linked to swine flu in NYC

Associated Press - June 19, 2009 4:45 PM ET

NEW YORK (AP) - Seven more deaths in New York City have been linked to swine flu, bringing the total to 30.

The number of influenza cases ought to be higher as well, but the number of cases reported only reflects confirmed results of hospitalizated cases, and does NOT reflect cases that have not been tested, nor does it reflect cases which did not report to the hospital.

Q: Still, it's not as bad as the regular influenza,which kills 36,000 people in the US each year, right?

A: It's WORSE than the regular influenza.

Unlike the regular influenza:

There is no partial or complete immunity to H1N1.

No current vaccine will work to prevent infection or reduce its effects.

Attempts to culture the virus in order to manufacture a vaccine have proven exceptionally and unusually difficult.

Vaccines for this virus may not be available to the world in sufficient numbers until February of next year, by which time the flu will already have circulated around the globe at least once and mutated many times.

H1N1 affects small children and young people, indicating that it may be a stronger strain than usual, and that it is structurally similar to those strains which killed massive numbers in past pandemics.

The virus has already mutated http://www.womenshealth.gov/news/english/628169.htm

It has killed three people who had no known pre-existing medical conditions that would enable them to succomb easily to H1N1.

For the H1N1 virus to equal the strength of the annual flu, it would need to kill off an average of two people per US state per day. At present, even though H1N1 still has not reached all areas of the country - and is far from doing so - we are at present (and only three months into this outbreak) losing about twenty people a day minimum in the US.

The virus was previously expected to fizzle out when the warmer summer months arrived, but we are having a mild summer, and so it is expected that H1N1 will continue to spread, infect, kill, -and thus have more chances to mutate into a deadlier strain- this summer.

Q: It's mutated. So what? Aren't mutations natural?

A: They are natural, but the first mutation came sooner than expected.

Three "healthy" people have died from the flu, and Brazil reports the existence of a new strain already.

http://www.womenshealth.gov/news/english/628169.htm

If the new mutation can kill "healthy" people in addition to the weak, it MAY mean that vaccine manufacturers will have to either alter their production to counter the new more-deadly mutative virus, or create two types of vaccines. One for the "weak" and one for the "strong."

Q: Still, as a percentage of the population, the number of people particularly vulnerable to the current and dominant flu virus is low, right, so the general public is not particularly in danger?

A: The public is more vulnerable than people suspect.

We've seen the virus kill women who have just given birth, people with heart conditions, Myasthenia Gravis, and other conditions, but there are two major groups of people that are particularly vulnerable to this virus, and these populations are soon to be affected:

1) HIV positive people and AIDS victims. These people have immune systems that are already busy combatting the HIV virus. The virus itself destroys the immune system, and so when these deficient immune systems get hit with a brand new virus, to which there is no immunity, these already compromised immune systems are hard pressed to counter the new virus.

The percentage of population infected with HIV in some African countries is 25% or higher. Let's remember HIV was not present during any past pandemic.

So the MILD form of H1N1 strain has the potential to kill off a quarter of the population of some countries.

2) Anyone on an immune suppressing drug. This includes cancer patients whose immune systems are being suppressed so that chemo-therapy and/or radiation treatments can be more applied more effectively. It also includes MG patients and anyone else who is on immune suppressing drugs.

There is a sizable percentage of the population the world over who is infected with cancer and other diseases where their immune systems attack their own bodies or where valuable energy is spent building cancer cells rather than white blood cells and antibodies. When a virus to which there is no immunity hits them, they will succumb to the new virus swiftly, because their immune systems cannot respond fast enough to creat new antibodies against the virus.

Q: How do we know the virus will mutate into a super-deadly strain?

A: We don't. But history says it will.

The reason is simple...

When a new virus makes its away around the population it infects, the body either kills it or the body itself dies. If the purpose of the virus is to co-exist with the host organism, it cannot do that if the host kills it off, or if the host itself dies.

Every time the virus passes from one host to another, it must change intself slightly so that it can live within the new host. It is only a natural progression that a healthy host organism will incubate a more deadly strain of the disease which may wind up killing off the majority of host organisms but stand a better chance of living forever within a group of hosts.

Q: What else makes this virus especially deadly?

A: Communicability and increased possibility for mutation in comparison with past influenza strains.

This strain is a combination of swine flu, bird flu, and human flu, and has been found in pigs, zoo animals, and domesticated dogs, and it has been passed from pigs to humans and humans to pigs.

This means that even if a vaccine is developed that works in humans, the virus can sit for a while in domesticated animals and mutate enough so that it can reinfect humans with the same results.

Q: So what do we do?

A: Be careful.

Do what government agencies suggest. Keep clean. Stay home if you're sick, etc.

But also worry about "collateral damage".

There has been one case of someone falsely reporting two flu deaths for the purpose of causing panic.

http://www.wten.com/Global/story.asp?S=10564308

"Swine flu death reports spark panic, govt says its a hoax"

There will be people clogging up hospitals seeking medical treatment, leaving others with no alternative but to try to nurse themselves back to health at home.

With so many resources spent on treating swine flu victims, other people seeking treatments for fatal illnesses may receive poor care and die.

So hang in there people.

Administrator

[Guest guest]

>

> been passed from pigs to humans and humans to pigs.

>

> So hang in there people.

>

>

>

> Administrator

>

Pigs have similar cellular structure to people what about mice that also have

similaraties to human. Has there been any talk of mice spreading the disease.

I admit that I have not been reading these threads much as it seems that

everyone is dying around us. I feel that there is a high population of asd

children with possibly weak immune systems. In genereal biochemistry is so

complex as to make my head swim but that is in the interweaving of reactions

genes proteins, I start to think everything is related and I get overwhelmed,

well and a bit scared.

I myself am considered a healthy person, but I have many maladies not diagnosed

or recognized by medicine as a " condition " so it stands to reason that 30+% of

the population may be in this healthy yet suseptable catagory.

Not wanting to be morbid but acknowledging the reality of the threat

[Guest guest]

" Has there been any talk of mice spreading the disease. "

There has not been any talk of this because I am sure it has never occured to

the average Joe. When the flu starts hitting rat infested communities, and

communities where stray dogs roam free, then we will hear more talk of it.

Administrator

[Guest guest]

>

> " Has there been any talk of mice spreading the disease. "

>

> There has not been any talk of this because I am sure it has never occured to

the average Joe. When the flu starts hitting rat infested communities, and

communities where stray dogs roam free, then we will hear more talk of it.

>

>

> Administrator

>

average " Joes " on occasion seem to be rather blissful, sigh Mimi

Thanks for your diligence

[Guest guest]

hi miminm;

personally don't think your concerns are morbid, just realistic and wise.

With my repaired heart valve, doctors have instrucetd me to get flue shots every year, and if i get an infection (like an infected cat-bite) to seek medical care, get antibiotics before dental work etc, etc due to dangers of bacteria or viruses circulating in my blood stream;

and dangers of my contracting a serious illness, I realze influenza is viral, thios post is rather jumbled.

As and others remind us, take care, stay helathy.

renaissanzelady

Subject: Re: Why thinks this flu is especially badTo: FAMSecretSociety Received: Monday, June 22, 2009, 2:04 PM

>> been passed from pigs to humans and humans to pigs.> > So hang in there people.> > > > Administrator>Pigs have similar cellular structure to people what about mice that also have similaraties to human. Has there been any talk of mice spreading the disease. I admit that I have not been reading these threads much as it seems that everyone is dying around us. I feel that there is a high population of asd children with possibly weak immune systems. In genereal biochemistry is so complex as to make my head swim but that is in the interweaving of reactions genes proteins, I start to think everything is related and I get

overwhelmed, well and a bit scared.I myself am considered a healthy person, but I have many maladies not diagnosed or recognized by medicine as a "condition" so it stands to reason that 30+% of the population may be in this healthy yet suseptable catagory.Not wanting to be morbid but acknowledging the reality of the threat

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