Swine Flu Is Spreading More Widely Than Official Numbers Show

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Swine Flu Is Spreading More Widely Than Official Numbers Show

By Gale

May 25 (Bloomberg) -- Swine flu is spreading more widely than official figures

indicate, with outbreaks in Europe and Asia showing it's gained a foothold in at

least three regions.

One in 20 cases is being officially reported in the U.S., meaning more than

100,000 people have probably been infected nationwide with the new H1N1 flu

strain, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In the

U.K., the virus may be 300 times more widespread than health authorities have

said, the Independent on Sunday reported yesterday.

Japan, which has reported the most cases in Asia, began reopening schools at the

weekend after health officials said serious medical complications had not

emerged in those infected. The virus is now spreading in the community in

Australia, Jim Bishop, the nation's chief medical officer, said yesterday.

" I think we will see the number rise, " Bishop told Australian Broadcasting Corp.

radio today after confirming the nation's 17th case and saying test results are

pending on 41 others. " This is going to be a marathon rather than a sprint. "

Forty-three countries have confirmed 12,022 cases, including 86 deaths,

according to the World Health Organization's latest tally. Almost four of every

five cases were in Mexico and the U.S., where the pig-derived strain was

discovered last month. Most of those infected experience an illness similar to

that of seasonal flu. The main difference is that the new H1N1 strain is

persisting outside the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Summer Disease?

" While we are seeing activities decline in some areas, we should expect to see

more cases, more hospitalizations and perhaps more deaths over the weeks ahead

and possibly into the summer, " Anne Schuchat, CDC's interim deputy director for

science and public health program, told reporters on a May 22 conference call.

The U.S. has officially reported 6,552 probable and confirmed cases, Schuchat

said. " These are just the tip of the iceberg. We are estimating more than

100,000 people probably have this virus now in the U.S. "

There have been nine deaths and more than 300 known hospitalizations, she said.

The fatalities exclude a woman in her 50s who died in New York over the weekend.

Eighteen European countries have confirmed 349 cases, a third of whom were

probably infected in their home country, the Stockholm-based European Centre for

Disease Prevention and Control said in a report yesterday. The U.K. and Spain

have the most reported cases, with 133 each. About 60 percent of cases in the

U.K. are linked to " in-country transmission, " ECDC said.

Thousands of U.K. Cases

Thousands of people have caught the virus in the U.K. and suffered mild

symptoms, or none at all, over the past weeks, Oxford, professor of

virology at the University of London, told the Independent.

Evidence of an outbreak within communities outside North America, where the

outbreak started, may prompt the WHO to declare the first influenza pandemic

since 1968.

" For the first time in history, we are watching the conditions conducive for the

start of a pandemic unfold before our eyes, " WHO Director-General Margaret Chan

told the closing session of the United Nations agency's annual meeting on May

22. " Scientists, clinicians and epidemiologists are capturing abundant signals.

But we do not have the scientific knowledge to interpret these signals with

certainty. "

The Geneva-based agency is asking vaccine makers to prepare for large-scale

production of an inoculation for swine flu, while also ensuring adequate

supplies of a shot for seasonal flu, which kills an estimated 250,000 to 500,000

people worldwide each year.

Grossly Obese

" Overseas experience with this virus is that most cases have a mild illness,

with those at risk of poor outcomes and death being pregnant women, some

children and young adults, those with prior respiratory illness, asthma,

diabetes and the grossly obese, " Australia's Bishop said yesterday in a letter

to doctors. " I would urge you to consider the possibility of influenza

complications in your patients this season. "

South Korea confirmed 12 more cases of swine flu, bringing the total to 22, the

nation's health ministry said today. China's Ministry of Health said today a

46-year-old man who flew to Beijing from Canada on May 21 is the nation's ninth

case.

Chile's tally reached 74 after 19 cases were recorded yesterday, while

Argentina's total increased by three to five.

To contact the reporter on this story: Gale in Singapore at

j.gale@...

Last Updated: May 25, 2009 00:27 EDT