Swat residents flee as army declares full-scale offensive against Taliban

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http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/may/08/pakistan-offensive-swat-valley

Swat residents flee as army declares full-scale offensive against Taliban

UN warns of humanitarian crisis in Pakistani operation to 'eliminate' insurgents

Walsh in Islamabad and Sana ul Haq in Mingora guardian.co.uk, Friday 8

May 2009 17.57 BST

Pakistan's army declared a " full-scale " offensive against Taliban insurgents

holed up in the Swat valley today as warplanes pounded militant bunkers and

caused thousands more residents to flee.

The fighting was concentrated in the main town, Mingora, where an estimated

4,000 Taliban fighters are heavily dug in. Artillery and helicopter gunships

battered militant-held buildings, while the Taliban planted mines across the

city in expectation of a major ground offensive.

At military headquarters in Rawalpindi, Major General Athar Abbas said the

mission was to " eliminate " the militants from Swat, a former tourist haven where

the army assault has become a test of Pakistan's commitment to rolling back

Islamism in North West Frontier province.

Abbas said troops had killed 143 militants in Swat over the preceding 24 hours,

and 16 in smaller battles in neighbouring Dir and Buner districts. He gave no

details of civilian casualties but testimony from thousands of people fleeing

the area suggested dozens of deaths and injuries.

UN officials repeated warnings that the flood of displaced people was swelling

into one of the world's largest humanitarian crises. In Mingora, long traffic

jams formed from morning as vehicles streamed out and other residents scrambled

frantically to find transport.

A spokesman for the UN refugee agency, the UNHCR, said an estimated one million

people had been affected: 200,000 who had fled the battlezone; 300,000 who were

on the move or about to go; and some 550,000 displaced by earlier fighting in

the tribal belt and across the province.

The numbers are soaring at an alarming rate. By late afternoon 102,000 displaced

people had registered for assistance, up from 45,000 a day earlier, said Killian

Kleinschmidt, a senior UNHCR official in Islamabad. The agency needs $180m

(£119m) for the immediate crisis, he said.

Some 5,000 people are living in camps set up in Mardan and Swabi, south of Swat,

and more are planned. Even there, refugees and aid workers may not be safe.

Mardan has suffered suicide attacks on police stations and schools in the last

year, and local officials warn that Taliban sympathisers are hidden among the

influx.

The concerted army operation was triggered by intense US pressure but also

shifting public opinion at home. It was signalled on Thursday by the prime

minister, Yousaf Raza Gilani, who vowed to " eliminate militants and terrorists "

from their Swat stronghold. " Enough is enough! " read the front page of

yesterday's Daily Times, a left-leaning English-language paper.

More importantly, opinion has shifted in the Urdu media. The opposition,

including religious parties, have largely assented to the operation. " Previously

Pakistanis saw this as the US war, but now there is a general impression that

this is our war, and we must stop the Taliban march, " said Amir Rana, an expert

on jihadi groups.

But the consensus behind the army operation remains fragile and may be

temporary, particularly if the fighting produces large-scale destruction or

civilian casualties.

Yesterday the army dropped leaflets across the Swat valley, urging residents to

reject the Taliban. " There are people who want to create panic in the country

and destroy it. Do you want that? " said one such flyer, which also quoted a

verse from the Qur'an about " the day of judgment " .

An estimated 4,000 militants were operating in Swat, said Abbas, including some

child soldiers who had been forcibly recruited. The Taliban were funded through

the drug trade, kidnapping and money from Afghanistan, he said.

Analysts said the military's early goal was to " decapitate " the Swat Taliban by

killing their leader, the charismatic cleric Maulana Fazlullah, who is thought

to be hiding in nearby mountains, or a senior lieutenant. " The military wants to

eliminate one or two senior people from Fazlullah's group to raise the morale of

their troops and show they mean business, " said Zaffar Abbas, a senior editor

with Dawn newspaper. " But it won't be easy. "

There are fears of reprisal suicide attacks in major cities directed by other

Taliban groups based in the tribal areas. The Swat Taliban are affiliated with

the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, run by Baitullah Mehsud, a warlord from South

Waziristan.

The larger question is whether the operation signals a shift in the Pakistani

security establishment's policy towards jihadi groups, some of which have been

secretly supported by the state as military proxies in India and Afghanistan.

Pakistan is also under pressure to crack down on groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba,

which carried out November's Mumbai attacks. " If the link with Lashkar is intact

it will not be affected because this operation is purely directed towards the

militants in Malakand, " said Abbas, the Dawn editor, referring to the area in

which Swat is located.