More Drone Attacks in Pakistan Planned

[Guest guest]

While on vacation in the Smokies, Raven and I met a fellow who claimed to be an

ex-Army Ranger. His buddies believe Obama's intention is to invade Pakistan.

We'll have to wait a while to see whether he was right, or just spinning a yarn.

Administrator

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/07/world/asia/07drone.html?ref=world

More Drone Attacks in Pakistan Planned

By ERIC SCHMITT and CHRISTOPHER DREW

Published: April 6, 2009

WASHINGTON — Despite threats of retaliation from Pakistani militants, senior

administration officials said Monday that the United States intended to step up

its use of drones to strike militants in Pakistan's tribal areas and might

extend them to a different sanctuary deeper inside the country.

On Sunday, a senior Taliban leader vowed to unleash two suicide attacks a week

like one on Saturday in Pakistan's capital, Islamabad, unless the Central

Intelligence Agency stopped firing missiles at militants. Pakistani officials

have expressed concerns that the missile strikes from remotely piloted aircraft

fuel more violence in the country, and some American officials say they are also

concerned about some aspects of the drone strikes.

But as Adm. Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and

C. Holbrooke, the special envoy to the region, arrived in Islamabad on Monday,

the administration officials said the plan to intensify missile strikes

underscored President Obama's goal to " disrupt, dismantle and defeat " Al Qaeda

in Pakistan and Afghanistan, as well as to strike at other militant groups

allied with Al Qaeda.

Officials are also proposing to broaden the missile strikes to Baluchistan,

south of the tribal areas, unless Pakistan manages to reduce the incursion of

militants there.

Influential American lawmakers have voiced support for the administration's

position.

Senator Carl Levin, a Michigan Democrat who heads the Armed Services Committee,

acknowledged last week that " the price is very heavy " when missile strikes

mistakenly kill civilians, but he said the strikes were " an extremely effective

tool. "

The plans have met strong resistance from Pakistani officials and have also

worried some former American officials and some analysts, who say that strikes

create greater risks of civilian casualties and could further destabilize the

nuclear-armed nation.

" You will be complicating and compounding anti-Americanism here, " said Talat

Masood, a retired Pakistani general and military analyst in Islamabad. " How can

you be an ally and at the same time be targeted? "

Some American experts say a crucial change in aerial warfare, in which American

forces are now often stalking individuals rather than tanks and other large

armaments as in past wars, has raised new legal issues.

A. Radsan, who worked as a C.I.A. lawyer from 2002 to 2004, argued in a

recent scholarly article he wrote with W. , a fellow law

professor, that the United States should follow the lead of the Israeli Supreme

Court and require an investigation of " targeted killings " by the C.I.A. to

control the practice.

While the notion of remote-control killing may seem chilling, military experts

say the drones, which can transmit live video for nearly a day at a time,

typically supply the weapons targeting officers with enough information to avoid

civilian casualties.

Marc Garlasco, a former military targeting official who now works for Human

Rights Watch, the international advocacy group, said the drones had helped limit

civilian casualties in Afghanistan and Iraq, where the Air Force uses them to

attack people laying roadside bombs and to attack other insurgents.

But in trying to take advantage of what can be fleeting chances to kill top

Taliban and Qaeda leaders in Pakistan, the C.I.A. faces a much more difficult

task, especially if it follows the targets into more populated areas.

" When you're operating under very short time frames, like the C.I.A. is in

Pakistan, you are exponentially increasing the risk of killing noncombatants, "

Mr. Garlasco said.

In Pakistan, the extensive missile strikes have been limited to the tribal

areas, and authorities say they have killed 9 of the top 20 Qaeda leaders.

American officials say the missile strikes have forced some Taliban and Qaeda

leaders to flee south toward Quetta, a city in the province of Baluchistan,

which abuts the parts of southern Afghanistan where recent fighting has been the

fiercest.

One of the prized attributes of the drones — the Cessna-size Predators and their

larger and more heavily armed cousins called the Reapers — is that they can

linger over an area day after day, sending back video that can be used to build

a " pattern of life " analysis.

Some experts have compared them to mini-satellites that can monitor a suspected

terrorist compound for weeks, watching where the people go and with whom they

interact, to help confirm that the right people are being singled out for

attack.

Experts say the drones also carry laser-guided weapons with small warheads that

are precise enough to kill a group of people in a street without damaging nearby

buildings.

Like the military services, the C.I.A. uses computer software to assess possible

collateral damage, and the fusing on the bombs can be adjusted to limit their

impact.

But in Pakistan and Afghanistan, it can also be hard to evaluate tips about the

locations of Taliban or Qaeda leaders if there are no troops nearby to help

check them out.

While the Air Force operates its drones from military bases in the United

States, the C.I.A. controls its fleet of Predators and Reapers from its

headquarters in Langley, Va.

The final preparations for strikes in Pakistan take place in a crowded room

lined with video screens, where C.I.A. officers work at phone banks and National

Security Agency personnel monitor electronic chatter, according to former C.I.A.

officials.

The intelligence officers watch scratchy video captured by the drones, which

always fly in pairs above potential targets.

According to the former officials, it is generally the head of the C.I.A.'s

clandestine service or his deputy who gives the final approval for a strike. The

decision about what type of weapon to use depends on the target, according to

one former senior intelligence official.

Top national security leaders have approved lists of people who can be attacked,

officials say, and the lawyers determine whether each attack can be justified

under international law.

Mark Mazzetti and beth Bumiller contributed reporting.