Pakistan conflict map

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/8047504.stm

Page last updated at 15:31 GMT, Wednesday, 13 May 2009 16:31 UK

Pakistan conflict map

A map produced by the BBC suggests only 38% of Pakistan's North West Frontier

Province (NWFP) and surrounding areas is under full government control.

The map, compiled by the BBC's Urdu language service, was based on local

research and correspondent reports as well as conversations with officials.

It shows the Taleban strengthening their hold across the north-west.

Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari rejected the findings, telling the BBC it

was an " incorrect survey " .

He was speaking after talks in London with UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who

pledged £12m ($18m) in humanitarian aid for north-west Pakistan.

Mr Zardari said the two countries were united in fighting the threat to their

countries' democratic way of life, and also repeated assurances that his

country's arsenal was in safe hands.

There was an international outcry recently when the militants moved into Buner

district, just 100km (67 miles) from Islamabad.

Pakistan is currently engaged in a military offensive aimed at regaining part of

the region from the Taleban.

Lawlessness

The report the map was based on covered the 24 districts of NWFP and the seven

tribal agencies and six frontier regions of the Federally Administered Tribal

Areas (FATA).

The researchers analysed reports from BBC Urdu correspondents over the past 18

months, backed up by conversations with local officials, police officers and

journalists.

They concluded that in 24% of the region, the civilian government no longer had

authority and Taleban commanders had taken over administrative controls.

Either the Taleban were in complete control or the military were engaged in

operations to flush them out.

Another 38% of the region was deemed to have a permanent Taleban presence,

meaning militants had established rural bases which were restricting local

government activities and seriously compromising local administration.

In those areas - three districts in FATA and 11 in NWFP - the Taleban had

repeatedly shown their capability to strike at will, says the report.

Militants had made their presence felt by carrying out periodic attacks on

girls' schools, music shops, police stations and government buildings.

The map gives a snapshot of the current situation. However continuing fighting

between Pakistani troops and the Taleban means the situation on the ground could

change in the future.

Defence analyst Lt-Gen (rtd) Talat Masood told the BBC that the current

situation was due to the failure of previous governments to control the Taleban.

" Once the military takes the territory back and holds it, then it is for the

provincial government to re-establish the administrative structures with police

and other services for the basic needs of the people, " he said.

Thousands flee

The region is notorious for its lack of law and order, so the researchers

applied a series of rules to differentiate Taleban activity from general

lawlessness.

The incidents had to be of a recurring nature, there had to be an official

recognition of Taleban presence, Taleban militants must have appointed local

" commanders " and religious schools sympathetic to the militants must be

operating in the area.

Pakistan has been stepping up its campaign against the Taleban in the

north-west.

Tens of thousands of people have fled from the region to escape the fighting.

The research also indicates areas to which researchers believe Taleban-style

militancy might further spread inside Pakistan.

The report found that, based on current perceptions of religiously motivated

violence, there were strong indications that in 47% of Punjab Province there was

a high likelihood of an increase in Taleban militancy in the near future.

The BBC's Barbara Plett in Islamabad says that while the research indicates the

strength of the Taleban in the region, the various factions and groups are only

loosely co-ordinated.

Observers have warned against overstating the existence of one unified

insurgency against the state, says our correspondent.