RESEARCH - Flu vaccine not reducing elderly deaths=

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Flu vaccine not reducing elderly deaths

Tuesday, February 15, 2005

Jaffe

Plain Dealer Reporter

Flu-related deaths among Americans over 65 have not declined in three

decades even though more seniors are getting flu shots, according to a

government study published Monday in the Archives of Internal Medicine.

" The vaccine is not reducing mortality, " said Lone Simonsen, the study's

lead researcher. She stopped short of saying that flu shots aren't

worthwhile.

" This study does not conclude that influenza vaccine is ineffective in the

elderly, " she said. " It is less effective than we thought. "

About two-thirds of the elderly get flu shots, up from 16 percent in the

early 1970s, according to the study.

The new study contradicts past government estimates that flu vaccines

reduced influenza-related deaths among the elderly by 60 percent to 80

percent.

The findings underscore the need to develop a more effective vaccine as well

as extending vaccinations to children and other adults, she said. Immunizing

schoolchildren could be extremely effective in protecting the elderly, she

said, citing an Emory University article to be published today.

Simonsen is a senior epidemiologist at the National Institute of Allergy and

Infectious Diseases, which is part of the National Institutes of Health.

The study drew immediate criticism from another federal agency.

Bill , a researcher and epidemiologist at the Centers for Disease

Control and Prevention, said late Monday that the CDC will not change

long-standing guidelines recommending that the elderly and others at risk of

developing complications from influenza get priority for flu shots.

About 36,000 people die each year from influenza-related illnesses, most of

whom are elderly, according to CDC estimates.

said the study was flawed because it didn't take into account

longer flu seasons that increase the chances of more people becoming

infected, and did not distinguish between the elderly who received flu shots

and those who did not, among other things.

The NIH study looked at death certificates for the whole country from 1968

to 2001, and estimated the number of influenza-related deaths by comparing

the spike in deaths in the winter to the number for the rest of the year.

The study also took into account the growth in the older population, so that

increasing numbers of elderly do not explain the increase in deaths, said

Simonsen.

Ira Longini, a professor of biostatistics at Emory University and the author

of an article appearing in today's American Journal of Epidemiology, said

that vaccinating 60 percent of schoolchildren in the United States would

dramatically reduce the transmission of influenza.

" Children are the primary transmitter and they link all the other groups in

the population, " he said.

agreed with Simonsen's conclusion that there should be a more

effective vaccine.

But there may be limits to discovering the perfect vaccine.

" The vaccine is less effective as you get older but more important as you

get older, " said Dr. , chairman of MetroHealth Medical

Center's Family Practice and Geriatrics department.

" The important point is that it is still generating immunity and is still

worth doing. "

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I'll tell you where to go!

Mayo Clinic in Rochester

http://www.mayoclinic.org/rochester

s Hopkins Medicine

http://www.hopkinsmedicine.org