Why drought overshadows world growth - a series on water shortages

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Colleagues, the following is a series on predictions of drought, water

shortages, and the implications for health, environment, economies, and

politics. It is long; delete if not interested. Best, ne

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Why drought overshadows world growth

By Fiona Harvey

Published: March 20 2006 21:32 | Last updated: March 20 2006 21:32

Drought

The next war, according to the doom-mongers, will be fought over oil.

But could water provide the flashpoint instead? The question is no

longer outlandish.

Around the world there are signs that competition for dwindling water

supplies is producing conflict or the threat of conflict. Notably, water

is at the heart of Middle East tensions, touching Israel and the

Palestinian territories, Syria, Lebanon and Jordan. All have rights to

the Jordan river on which they rely for agriculture, drinking and

sanitation.

“If you stand back and look at the past 50 years, all these parties have

been competing with each other for resources,” says , a

British water adviser to the Palestinian Authority. “There have been

some agreements but essentially they’ve been competing in a zero-sum game.”

Other danger spots include those around the Nile, Niger and Zambezi

rivers in Africa and Syria’s dispute with Turkey over the damming by

Ankara of the Tigris and Euphrates. Even in areas where there is no

prospect of violence, nations suffering shortages – the “water stressed”

in the jargon – are paying the price in lost productivity and stunted

growth.

Potentially catastrophic water shortages loom not only for Africa but

over much of Europe this summer. Now the race is on to broker

international solutions before drought turns to disaster for the world

economy.

The statistics are enough to transfix economists as well as

environmentalists. The lack of clean water and basic sanitation that

afflicts up to 40 per cent of the world’s population knocks at least

$556bn (£317bn, €458bn) a year off the world’s potential economic

growth, according to the World Health Organisation – equivalent to about

1 per cent of global gross domestic product.

A report by the World Bank into a drought in Kenya between 1998 and 2000

found that GDP there was reduced by 16 per cent as a direct result.

Drought currently threatens the survival of 11m people in and around

Somalia and Ethiopia. But the knock-on effects are felt widely. For

instance, the income of fish sellers in countries such as Tanzania is

suffering because a lack of ice means the fish spoil before they can be

shipped abroad.

Even in developed countries, water shortages can be economically

devastating. The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says

America’s annual economic losses from drought are estimated at $6bn-$8bn

– and are concentrated in a handful of stricken regions. Europe’s severe

water shortages in 2003 cost the region’s economies $13bn, mainly as a

result of a sharp reduction in agricultural output.

Where there is enough water to go around, mismanagement, poor governance

and unfair distribution still mean some people go thirsty while others

sip Evian by swimming pools.

But why has water suddenly emerged as such an alarming stress point for

the world economy? One culprit is climate change, which is decreasing

the amount of water in some regions, such as sub-saharan Africa, but is

causing floods in areas where glaciers are melting.

In addition, the demands of modern agriculture are remorseless. It takes

1,000 tonnes of water to produce a tonne of grain. Industry is also

thirsty: activities from food processing to semiconductor manufacturing

and garment-making require vast quantities of water – a big factor in

rapidly industrialising countries.

The pollution of clean water supplies, whether by salt, by human or

animal waste or by toxins released from industrial processes, is also an

acute problem – particularly in China, where the drinking water of 300m

people, nearly a quarter of the population, is contaminated, often by

harmful chemicals, according to the Xinhua state news agency.

A lack of clean fresh water is one of the few problems that could put a

brake on the runaway growth of India and China, says Bjorn Stigson,

president of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development: “It

is clear to me, from conversations with Chinese officials, that this is

probably the biggest problem China faces.”

Yet business is also sensing opportunities. The wave of water

privatisations around the world in the 1990s had appeared to be

subsiding but now pressures on water use have piqued companies’

interest. Only about 7–8 per cent of the world’s water services are

currently run by the private sector, according to Suez Environnement,

part of the French utilities group.

The potential market runs to hundreds of billions of dollars. But if

market forces and the power of private capital were brought to bear,

would the result be more efficient distribution and exploitation of the

world’s water resources? Or would a private-sector bonanza result in a

polarisation of resources, skewed even more towards the rich while the

poor die without sanitation?

The issue is stirring controversy at this week’s World Water Forum in

Mexico City, where ministers and policy-makers are debating solutions to

the crisis. Some organisations resist the involvement of the private

sector on ideological grounds.

The Globalisation Institute, a rightwing think tank, has published a

report calling for greater private-sector involvement in water

management, arguing that this would increase access to clean water and

sanitation. But the World Development Movement, an anti-poverty

campaigning group, in a separate report argues the opposite, declaring

it is “a myth that water privatisation has led to increased access to

water and reduced costs”.

There is right on both sides, says Tom Lequesne, fresh water policy

officer at WWF, the environmental campaigning group. He says: “It’s

entirely specific to the context. You can get some plans that work but

also there are parts of the world where water privatisation is very

controversial.”

What separates effective private-sector ventures from the failures is a

strong regulatory environment, according to Redhouse, policy

officer at the charity WaterAid. He says: “Where you have a strong

regulatory sector, you can make sure that the interests of everyone,

including the poorest people, are taken into account.”

Moreover, private-sector in­volvement could end some of the most

grotesque distortions of water pricing, says Jean-Louis Chaussade, chief

executive of Suez Environnement. He cites street vendors in places such

as India and parts of south America, saying: “Poor people end up paying

10 times more for their water than the rich, who get it out of a tap.”

A few simple techniques could do much to alleviate the mismatch between

water demand and supply, says Mr Chaussade. The most important is the

reuse of water: treating sewage so that it can be safely put back into

rivers, used for irrigation or deployed in industrial processes. It can

even be injected into underground water tables to restore them.

Chart

For instance, a sewage plant finished this year in San Potosi in

Mexico will make it possible to treat 80,000 cubic metres a day of the

waste water produced by the city. Then, 60 per cent of the water, having

undergone physical and chemical treatment, will be distributed to

farmers and the remainder will undergo further biological treatment and

be used as a coolant for the power station in nearby Reyes.

Scant attention is paid by many industries to reusing their water. And

educating water users can go a long way towards reducing demand. Most of

the world’s water use is in agriculture and farmers can be taught better

water management techniques. Those can be as simple as the correct

siting of ditches, better methods of collecting rain­water or ploughing

a field along its contours rather than up and down so that water and

valuable topsoil do not wash down the furrows when it rains.

Desalination is another technical option for creating fresh water from

the sea but it remains relatively expensive. Spain plans to build more

than 20 desalination plants on its parched southern coast in the next

few years, which will run during periods of peak demand such as the

tourist season.

But desalination – usually achieved by reverse osmosis, or pushing water

through a fine membrane that removes salts – requires large amounts of

energy. That in turn gives rise to greenhouse gas emissions which worsen

the water problem by hastening climate change.

Companies have been finding ways around this, such as using the heat

produced by power stations to create steam, which can be condensed, or

by using renewable energy sources for the power. Perth, in Australia, is

using wind turbines to power its desalination plant.

Another option for reducing water demand is one that many

environmentalists eschew. Crops can be genetically modified to render

them more suitable for growing in areas of low rainfall or high salinity.

All these techniques are likely to become vital as the global population

heads towards 9bn by 2050. The health not only of countless individuals

but also of the world economy may depend on it.

Additional reporting by Sharmila Devi

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Hot, dry summers likely to become the norm

By Bounds and Fiona Harvey

Published: August 10 2006 03:00 | Last updated: August 10 2006 03:00

This year's hot, dry summer will be repeated many times in the future

and will become normal in the next 40 to 50 years if climate scientists

are correct, write Fiona Harvey in London and Bounds in Brussels.

The Hadley Centre, a research centre at the UK's Met Office, has

predicted that over the next 80 years, Europe will experience 50 per

cent less rainfall in summer and 30 per cent more rainfall in winter.

The areas around the Mediterranean will be worst hit by the hotter,

drier summers, while rainfall in winter will be more likely to come in

the form of heavy storms.

" Mediterranean countries have to decide if they want agriculture or

tourism, " says a senior European Commission official.

In 2000, of total water extraction in Europe, agriculture used on

average 32 per cent, electricity cooling 31 per cent, manufacturing 13

per cent and households 24 per cent. In Belgium and Germany, two-thirds

of water is abstracted for cooling towers at power stations, whereas in

southern countries, the main user is agriculture.

Water companies will face serious difficulties in satisfying demand

during the worsening summer droughts to come. One seemingly simple

solution would be to move water from where it is abundant to dry areas.

But water is heavy, and therefore expensive and difficult to transport

over long distances in the quantities that would be needed.

Better storage of water, in reservoirs, will be a necessity, says Pete

Falloon, climate impact scientist at the Hadley Centre. Water companies

may also have to upgrade much of their pipework because of the

increasing incidence of subsidence and heave caused by land drying out.

Desalination could be part of the solution but it uses vast quantities

of energy, thereby producing carbon dioxide and contributing to climate

change unless powered by wind turbines rather than fossil fuels.

The long-term answer, according to Mr Falloon, is to cut down on waste

and use water more efficiently.

Farmers will also have to grow different crops. Scientists are

developing varieties of common crops that are more resistant to drought.

Industry will also be affected. Rising temperatures will mean greater

demand for cooling water.

In some northern countries, such as the UK, electricity consumption

patterns are already beginning to shift, with more energy being used in

summer as air conditioning becomes more popular.

Power generators may have to change the scheduling of their downtime and

maintenance, which currently take place in summer.

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Water pollution ‘worsening across China’

By Yeh in Beijing

Published: August 22 2006 13:30 | Last updated: August 23 2006 02:50

Water pollution is worsening in urban areas across China, despite heavy

investment in new wastewater treatment facilities, a senior government

official said on Tuesday.

Cities need to do more to conserve and treat water if they are to avoid

crises, according to Qiu Baoxing, vice minister of construction. “This

is a critical point in time - we are at a crossroads,” he said.

Mr Qiu said that China would spend Rmb1,000bn ($125bn) over the next

five years on water projects. This includes around Rmb330bn to construct

urban wastewater treatment facilities and Rmb320bn for two major

south-north water diversion projects.

China’s water problems, specifically high pollution levels and

persistent droughts, are set to continue in the years ahead despite

Beijing’s plans to sharply expand water-related infrastructure.

In recent weeks, scorching temperatures have caused a drought in the

southwest – mainly Sichuan province and Chongqing municipality – that

has decimated crops and caused drinking water shortages for millions of

residents.

Waterways contaminated by urban household and industrial wastewater

discharges have developed into a major worry for Beijing and local

governments. In many areas, depleted groundwater levels are also causing

the ground to sink.

According to the Ministry of Construction, which is in charge of city

planning policy, China’s urban wastewater treatment rate jumped to 52

per cent last year from 34 per cent in 2000.

However, the ministry admits many wastewater plants are operating at

partial capacity, the collection of wastewater treatment fees is often

irregular and pipe networks are often old or incomplete. It is leading

an effort to repair 50-year-old pipe networks prone to leakage in urban

areas by the end of next year.

Mr Qiu admitted over-population and relentless economic growth were

posing a serious threat to water resources in many cities and towns.

“Our overall urban water environment is in the process of worsening,” he

said.

“The next few years will be the time when Chinese cities will see the

fastest urbanisation and when industrialisation will proceed most

swiftly,” Mr Qiu said. “This period is when water pollution will be most

serious.”

He said the central government needed to intensify its supervision of

water-related industries while opening the market to more foreign and

private investment.

“The market has not fully played its fundamental role,” he said. “Now is

the peak period for investment.”

But Zhang Yue, another ministry official, estimated that foreign

investment in China’s urban water sector was less than 10 per cent of

the total.

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Declining water supply brings a deluge of ideas

By Mike A

Published: August 17 2006 18:29 | Last updated: August 17 2006 18:29

We live in a world in which 2.6bn people consume water from unsafe and

polluted sources, according to United Nations figures. Against this, it

takes up to 100,000 litres to produce 1kg of beef, 75 litres to make one

computer chip and 780 litres to create one litre of fruit juice, says

Waterwise, a UK non-governmental organisation – an idea known as

“embedded water”.

These realities are now colliding, with serious consequences for

business. “Everyone understands that water is essential to life. But

many are just beginning to grasp how essential it is to everything in

life – food, energy, transportation, nature, leisure, identity, culture

and virtually all products used on a daily basis,” says Lloyd Timberlake

of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development, a business

think-tank, which next week launches a report on the subject.

Ford Motor’s Southampton plant, for instance, uses 6,000 litres of water

to make one Ford Transit van, including body construction, painting,

trimming and final assembly. But Waterwise says the total figure is

150,000 litres if you include the water that goes into processing the

van’s components.

In the developed world, much of the water infrastructure must be

replaced in the next 20 years, according to the Pacific Institute, a US

think-tank, but other regions are at risk of more severe water supply

problems.

In India, urban water demand is due to double and industrial demand to

triple by 2025. Unreliable supply in Bangalore has already led

information technology companies such as Wipro, iGate and MphasiS to

consider other locations when they expand, says the Pacific Institute,

while in 2003 PepsiCo and Coca-Cola lost their licences to use ground

water in Kerala for their bottling plants after drought raised

competition for the resource.

This month, they have faced calls for a ban in India after a report

alleged their products contained high levels of pesticides. Coca-Cola

was recently dropped from pension fund TIAA-Cref’s Social Choice

Account, partly because of concerns over its exploitation of water

around the world.

Companies must be aware of the vulnerability of their supply chains in

sectors as diverse as textiles, electronics and consumer products.

“Water as a business risk issue is something that we will be looking at

more and more over the next few years,” says Nick Robins, head of

socially responsible investment funds at Global Investors.

This explains why a company such as Unilever has initiatives ranging

from a detergent that requires less rinsing for the Indian market to

support for tomato farmers in Brazil to introduce drip irrigation, which

cuts water use by 30 to 70 per cent, while increasing crop yields by 20

to 90 per cent, according to the World Resources Institute.

But there are also ample opportunities for business. The first issue to

address if you want to reduce water use is how much you currently use,

so organisations that provide metering systems, such as Itron of the US

and Techem of Germany, are well placed.

Companies are also thriving by offering innovations in infrastructure

replacement, filtration, irrigation and desalination. Amiad, an Israeli

company listed on AIM, is doing well out of filtration and irrigation,

and making inroads with drip irrigation systems that deliver fertiliser

as well as water, saving on fertiliser and labour costs.

Developed countries will spend up to $1,000bn on upgrading water and

waste water systems in the next few decades, says Emma Boyd, head

of SRI at Jupiter Asset Management, while “demand for water from urban

areas and industry in China is expected to grow by 70 per cent and 104

per cent respectively between 2010 and 2030”. Among those poised to

benefit are Asian water treatment companies such as HyFlux and Biotreat,

both listed in Singapore.

Other innovators include Canada-based Pure Technologies, which has

developed the SmartBall, an aluminium sphere equipped with a sensor,

which travels along a pipeline pinpointing the location of leaks as it goes.

Insituform, a US-based company, has developed trenchless sewer repair

technology that allows utilities to repair pipes without digging up roads.

It has worked in settings as varied as underneath the White House, in

nuclear power plants and a Texas prison, which was keen to repair its

pipes without putting temptation in the inmates’ way.

Zander Group, a UK company, uses a moisture-retaining material to

encourage desert reversal and revegetation. It works by releasing

moisture to root systems over a prolonged period, reducing the need for

irrigation or rainfall.

Its subsidiary, Clear Earth, will also use the material as an underlying

layer for pavements and car parks, where it filters contaminants out of

water run-off and allows the water time to filter back to the ground

water rather than running off down the drain.

Cameron, vice-chairman of Climate Change Capital, a UK bank

focused on low-carbon projects, says: “Managing water will be a premium

business to be in.”

Food

It takes 200 litres of water to produce 1kg of rice

1kg of potatoes: 500 litres

1 orange: 53 litres

1 serving of lettuce: 22 litres

1 pint of milk: 250 litres

1 egg: 450 litres

1 loaf of bread: 550 litres

1 kg of butter: 18,000 litres

Textiles and consumer goods

1kg of cotton: 5,300 litres

1kg of wool: 200,000 litres

1 car: 150,000 litres

1 computer chip: 75 litres

Sources: Waterwise, Stanford University

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Drought-stricken Europe verging on 'natural disaster'

By Tony Barber, Bounds, Burnett, Jan Cienski, Fiona

Harvey, Peggy Hollinger and Gerrit Wiesmann

Published: August 10 2006 03:00 | Last updated: August 10 2006 03:00

As Europe wilts under a blistering sun, water levels in the region's

rivers and reservoirs are plummeting. The night skies over Spain's

forests glow orange with deadly wildfires. Cracked mud-flats border

shrinking waterways. Fish lie stranded on the dry beds of lakes and rivers.

Water levels on parts of Italy's longest and most commercially vital

river, the Po - which has stirred awe with the fury of its floods - have

dropped to their lowest in living memory. On the Rhine, Europe's busiest

waterway, low waters have forced ships to carry less cargo and make up

for lost revenue with surcharges of up to 50 per cent. Spain's

reservoirs were filled to just 45 per cent of capacity as of August 7,

and in one case to 13 per cent, approaching the point at which only

unusable sludge remains.

Desperate to conserve water, Paris has for the first time decided not to

dampen the dusty paths of its public gardens. English gardeners are

banned from using hosepipes, while swimming pools remain empty in many

Spanish towns.

Farmers predict a sharp fall in crops and face losses of billions of

euros. In Italy, the Agricultural Confederation, a farmers' association,

says production of beets, maize, rice and animal fodder will approach

record lows, while the grape harvest is expected to be the lowest in two

decades. Italy's farmers calculate losses so far this year at €500m

($644m, £337m). Ermete Realacci, head of a parliamentary environment

committee, said the agricultural emergency was " verging on a natural

disaster " .

In Spain, where farmers face watering restrictions of up to 60 per cent,

the cereal crop is set to be 17 per cent lower than the average over the

past five years. Smaller harvests are expected in Germany and Poland,

where the government has promised up to 500m zlotys (€128m) to support

farmers who lose more than a third of their income because of drought.

The baking sun has ripened some crops early, forcing farmers to leave

fruit and vegetables unharvested. In the UK - the world's second biggest

frozen pea producer - some growers have had to leave 20 per cent of

their harvest in the field to be taken up when dry for animal feed.

Spanish farmers are planting fewer thirsty crops such as wheat, corn and

rice and, in the parched province of Valencia, are digging up small

trees to sell for ornamental use. The French ecology ministry says a 20

per cent drop in the farmland devoted to corn over the past four years

has saved 360m cubic metres of water - the consumption of 6m people.

French livestock farmers have been forced to dig into their winter

stocks of hay, says Jean-Michel Delmas of the French agricultural union

FNSEA. He warns that stress caused by the heat has thrown cattle off

their usual fertility cycles and veal production could fall 10-15 per cent.

The European Commission has given permission to farmers in nine

countries - including France, Italy, Germany and Spain - to graze

livestock on " set-aside " land normally off limits until August 31 to

prevent over-production.

The drought is not bad news for every farmer.In the UK, harvests of some

soft fruit are expected tobe bigger than normal,as is winter-sown

barley, while farmers whose crops escape damage cancommand higher prices.

With forests dry as tinder, thousands of hectares of trees have fallen

prey to fire in Portugal and Spain. One hundred fires raged in northern

Spain this week, killing at least three people.

Lower hydroelectric and nuclear output has forced some countries to

crank up more costly oil-burning generators, sending energy prices soaring.

The heat has warmed the rivers on which Germany, Belgium and France rely

to cool power plants. With the temperature of the Rhine last month

reaching 28°C in places, Germany restricted the amount of cooling water

nuclear power stations could siphon from tributaries. France raised the

temperature ceiling at which power stations are allowed to drain water

into rivers, but EDF, the country's largest electricity producer, was

nonetheless forced to import power.

The drought has exposed some countries' mismanagement of the little

water available. Italy has relatively high rainfall but some experts

estimate 40 per cent of supplies are lost through leaking infrastructure.

Spain's environment ministry says at least 80 per cent of water used for

agriculture is wasted. The sector consumes about 75 per cent of the

country's water - double the average in the EU - but accounts for only 5

per cent of gross domestic product.

The World Wildlife Fund this month called for an end to farming

subsidies for water-dependent crops such as sugar beet, blaming them for

soaring water consumption.

With droughts expected to hit Europe with growing frequency and parts of

the Mediterranean region at high risk of desertification, long-term

fixes remain elusive. The Spanish government is building 25 desalination

plants in a bid to boost supply but the plants are voracious consumers

of energy and the water they produce is expensive.

Environmentalists say governments must invest in reservoirs, better

water canals, alternative energy sources and more efficient irrigation

systems. Until they do, they can exhortconsumers to turn offthe tap - or

turn it offthemselves.

Reporting by Burnett in Madrid, Peggy Hollinger in Paris, Tony

Barber in Rome, Jan Cienski in Warsaw, Gerrit Wiesmann in furt,

Fiona Harvey in London, Bounds in Brussels

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Companies are pouring money down the drain

By Fiona Harvey

Published: July 27 2006 19:34 | Last updated: July 27 2006 19:34

Fixing a dripping tap can save an average of 528,000 litres of water in

a year – enough to fill half an Olympic swimming pool. It will also,

typically, save a company several hundred pounds in water bills, making

it worthwhile to send someone in with a wrench.

In large swathes of Europe and the US, as well as south America, drought

has encouraged formerly carefree companies to pay more attention to

water efficiency. Businesses already have a good financial incentive to

save water, and in time of drought they also face moral pressure and the

threat of regulatory enforcement.

Waterwise, a charity funded by water companies in the UK that aims to

reduce water wastage, estimates that water costs companies on average

about 1 to 2 per cent of their turnover per year. But in companies that

have not taken steps to save water, about a third is often wasted.

A good first step, therefore, is to take a “water audit” to examine how

much the company is using, how much it costs and where it is going.

Environmental consultants can perform audits, and in some countries

governments will pay for or subsidise the cost of the audit.

Some obvious measures can yield the biggest savings: tracking down

leaking pipes and fixing taps or valves. In offices, washroom taps can

be fitted with sprays that use less water, and urinals equipped with

sensors so that they do not flush when no one has been using them.

Putting a bag in a toilet cistern will reduce its flush at almost no cost.

The monetary savings can be sizeable: AstraZeneca found that it could

recoup Aus$29,000 (£11,900) a year by reducing water usage at a

manufacturing facility in Australia by 15m litres.

Companies in areas that have been water-rich can benefit from following

the example of areas with long experience of shortages. Australians are

much more aware of the need to save water than Europeans.

Sydney Water conducted a water audit on the Jessie Street Centre, a

multi-storey office block in the Parramatta district of Sydney. The

block halved its water usage by adding sensor controls to urinals that

previously flushed continually; cutting the amount of water used in the

irrigation system for the buildings gardens; reducing the flush in the

324 toilet cisterns; and adding a monitoring system to cooling towers to

prevent overflows. The outlay was Aus$40,500, but the savings are

estimated at $95,000 per year.

Where water is particularly scarce, more advanced techniques come into

their own. When DaimlerChrysler chose to build an assembly plant for

Dodge Ram pick-up trucks in the middle of the Northern Mexico desert, it

asked Siemens to install a water recycling system. This allows the plant

to recycle more than 100,000 gallons of water a day, at a cost lower

than that of buying and treating well-water.

“Grey water” systems allow companies to take water from washroom sinks

or from gutters and use it to flush toilets or water gardens. Porous

pavements installed in car parks can catch water that would otherwise

run off, and feed it into grey water systems.

For many companies trying to save water, their utility will be the first

port of call. Water companies may seem to have a vested interest in

increasing water consumption, but in times of drought this is not the

case. They are usually required by law to provide water to a certain

standard at a certain price. As the resource becomes more scarce,

finding new sources is more expensive, meaning it is in the companies’

financial interest to keep wastage down.

Fortunately for governments and water companies, campaigns to reduce

consumption appear to work. In the south-east of England, water

consumption since spring is down 10 per cent on last year, thanks to a

hosepipe ban and a public information campaign.

But Tompkins, director of Waterwise, warns that companies and

individuals must grow into the habit of valuing water: “It is the small

behavioural changes that people can make, such as always using a full

load in the dishwasher and washing machine, or turning off the tap when

brushing their teeth, that make the most crucial long-term savings.”

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What do we do now the climate wolf is at the door?

By Wolf

Published: July 11 2006 19:11 | Last updated: July 11 2006 19:11

The little boy who cried “wolf” was finally proved right and was gobbled

up as punishment for his earlier pranks. Malthusians have been crying

wolf for a couple of centuries. But in global warming they may well have

seen a real one. It would be wrong to say their warnings are being

ignored. But they are certainly not receiving much practical attention.

The Kyoto protocol now covers a mere 30 per cent of emissions, while its

hard limits cover just 8 per cent. Is global warming a wolf at our door?

The argument that it is starts with the observation that some

atmospheric gases generate a greenhouse – or warming – effect. This is

an excellent thing since they make the earth’s surface temperature about

30ºC warmer than it would otherwise be. But, as concentrations of

greenhouse gases rise, so will the the temperature (albeit only if other

things remain equal). This, goes the argument, is what is happening.

Since the 18th century, there has been a big increase in the output of

man-made (anthropogenic) CO2, largely as a by-product of the burning of

fossil fuels discussed here two weeks ago. Currently, emissions are

running at 7bn tonnes a year, measured as carbon (just over one tonne

per person). Concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere have risen from

about 280 parts per million in the 18th century to 380 parts today. This

is, say the scientists, higher than in the last 420,000 years and

possibly the highest in 20m years (though levels have been higher still

in the more distant past). The 10 warmest years on record have occurred

since 1994, with an average global warming of 0.7ºC since 1900.

CO2 concentration and temperature change

Concentrations of CO2 are headed much higher still. Under plausible

assumptions, human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases (which include

water vapour, methane, nitrous oxide, as well as CO2) will tend to rise

over the next half century. This is not only because of the rising use

of fossil fuels discussed here last week. Bigger populations in

developing countries also mean further deforestation. Moreover, while

anthropogenic emissions make up only about 5 per cent of the natural

exchanges between atmosphere, sea and land, their impact is cumulative,

since about 60 per cent of our emissions stay there.

If trends of the past half century were to continue, concentrations

would reach 550 parts per million by 2050. That level would itself raise

global temperatures by between 2.2ºC and 3.6ºC by 2100. The continents

might warm by between 2.2ºC and 6.2ºC and the Arctic by between 3.6ºC

and 11.4ºC. Such changes could well be associated with extreme events:

reversal of the oceanic currents (notably the Gulf Stream); and the

melting of permafrost and subsequent release of huge quantities of

methane. Feedback effects might push temperatures higher than at any

time in the last 50m years. The world would be a different place, as

humans returned to the atmosphere the carbon extracted by photosynthesis

and fossilised over millions of years.

I have no intellectual difficulty with this argument, since it is

grounded in scientific reasoning. Nevertheless, it raises several

further questions. First, how certain are we of the magnitudes of

potential warming? Second, how far is the warming itself a “bad thing”?

Third, is there any chance that we will, in practice, find a workable

way of dealing with it? Finally, what can and should we do about it,

while taking into account both the benefits and the costs of any actions?

Global CO2 emissions

The answer to the first of these questions is that there remain

substantial uncertainties in long-run climate forecasts, as can be seen

from the ranges I have given. I sympathise with the climatologist here:

forecasting the behaviour of complex systems is hard, as economists

know. But the forecast direction of change at least seems plausible, to

this scientific illiterate.

The answer to the second question is trickier, at least to the lay

person. It is, after all, not obvious why a warmer world would be such a

bad thing. Most people and, for that matter, most of the world’s fauna

and flora inhabit the warmer parts of the globe, for good reason. It is,

by and large, easier to live there. There would certainly be

beneficiaries of global warming, perhaps very many of them. But sudden

changes impose huge costs of adjustment that would include the

disappearance of habitats. Life would survive this, as it did the mass

extinctions of the past, and so, almost certainly, would that most

adaptable of species, humanity. But the adjustment would surely prove

disruptive, with an overwhelming probability that the poor would suffer

most, as Sir Stern of the UK Treasury argues in his preliminary

analysis of the economic issues.*

Now we come to the hard questions – what will, can and should be done?

The answer to the first is already quite clear: next to nothing.

Emissions continue to rise, Kyoto or no Kyoto: since 1990, aggregate

human emissions from fossil fuel consumption (and cement production)

have risen at 1.1 per cent a year. Emissions per head may have

stabilised, but world population is growing: it is forecast to reach 9bn

by mid-century, up from 6.5bn today. Above all, emissions are above the

level needed to stabilise concentrations of greenhouse gases (measured

in CO2 equivalents) even at 550 parts per million.

CO2 concentration and global CO2 emissions per head

For that to happen, emissions in 2050 would need to be no greater than

they were in 1990 (which was 12 per cent below 2002 levels) and as much

as 50 to 60 per cent below levels forecast for 2050, on a business as

usual, “fossil-fuel-first” scenario. It is important to note, moreover,

that small reductions in emissions slow the speed at which the

concentrations “travel”, but not the destination they reach: as Steve

Koonin, BP’s chief scientist, notes, even cutting CO2 emissions by 20

per cent below current trends only postpones the date at which we reach

550 parts per million by 15 years. The cuts have to be bigger than this

because what we put up stays up for 200 to 300 years.**

A betting person who accepts the growing scientific consensus would

wager that global warming is going, like the wolf, to gobble us up. But

what could and should we do, instead? Are there technological fixes? Is

there a policy regime that might be adopted and (unlike Kyoto) make a

difference? Do the benefits of action outweigh the likely costs, or

should we merely try to adapt? These are the questions to which I will

turn in the final column in this series, next week.

martin.wolf@...

*What is the Economics of Climate Change?, January 2006,

www.hm-treasury.gov.uk

**Carbon on the rise, Frontiers April 2006, www.bp.com

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Let’s talk about the weather - again

By Engel

Published: July 28 2006 19:29 | Last updated: July 28 2006 19:29

This column comes to you from Manchester, the English city whose

propensity for cold drizzle has long been part of folklore (with reason,

in my experience). Travelling up from the south on Friday, I did not

even bother to bring a sweater, never mind an umbrella. There is a

change in the weather, and it is psychological as well as meteorological.

The weather has always gone weird now and again, wherever we are. In

every place, extremes turn into conversational touchstones that last as

long as living memory. The British have the winter of 1963, the summer

of 1976 and the storm of 1987; Chicago had the killer heatwave of 1995;

the French shudder thinking about the heat of 2003.

But normally these great exceptions are local, caused by strange

goings-on in the jet stream. A drought in Manchester may mean that the

Côte d’Azur is getting Mancunian rain. This summer is different. Day

after day, the newspapers tell the same story across the northern

hemisphere: from Abu Dhabi, Ajaccio and Algiers to Vienna, Washington

and Zurich – temperatures above 30, 35 or even 40°C.

Coastal California, usually balmy, has been nudging 45°C (113°F), a

phenomenon described by Bill Patzert, a Nasa scientist in Pasadena, as

“extreme makeover warming”, saying that the state’s overdevelopment is

partly to blame. Moaning Californians are unlikely to have noticed the

similar temperatures in Iraq, where they are accompanied by the absence

of fripperies such as electricity and water.

For a global phenomenon, although colder, we might have to go back to

1816, “the year without a summer”, when the world was shrouded in ash

from the eruption of Mount Tamboro, causing global crop failure and food

riots in Paris. This hot season may not have a name; it may hardly be

remembered; it may be the first of many.

How are we coping? We will talk about the politicians another day. The

rest of us are beset by paradox. Air-conditioning companies cannot keep

up with demand, even though we know that the installation of air

conditioning in itself hastens climate change. Prices of coastal

properties – even minuscule beach huts – are climbing towards the

troposphere, in spite of the predictions of inundation from rising sea

levels. In places such as Manchester, where summer used to be “three

fine days and a thunderstorm”, we relish the endless sunshine, even

while fearing what it might mean.

In that mood we approach August, the traditional time for Europeans and

North Americans to bask, bake and relax while, perhaps, in the back of

our minds, formulating ways of resolving our own problems in the cooler

months ahead.

But now it is the summer sunshine that is itself the problem. Perhaps

the heat might force everyone – leaders and led – to return to work with

a new realisation and determination that fatalism and complacency are no

longer sensible options.

The writer is an FT commentator on politics and sport

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Countries urged to overhaul water supply management

By Fiona Harvey in London

Published: August 23 2006 18:40 | Last updated: August 23 2006 18:40

Radical reform of the way water supplies are managed is the only way to

solve the world’s water crisis, governments have been told.

The amount of water needed to grow food could be halved, scientists have

told an international conference on water in Stockholm, which on Monday

heard that one in three of the planet’s inhabitants were short of water.

Although there was sufficient water for human needs, including

agriculture and sanitation, poor management and distribution of water

supplies had led to scarcities in large parts of the world.

Rijsberman, director general of the International Water Management

Institute, said: “The last 50 years of water management practices are no

model for the future when it comes to dealing with water scarcity.”

Most of the world’s fresh water is used for growing food but many of the

practices employed are wasteful.

Irrigation through open channels in hot countries results in a large

amount of water evaporating before it reaches crops. Some crops that

require a lot of water are being grown in areas that are unsuitable,

requiring farmers to think about changing the crops they grow.

But crops that are watered primarily by rain also waste water, as

rainwater is allowed to run off land into streams and rivers, carrying

valuable topsoil with it. Farmers can decrease the amount of run-off

from their land using simple techniques such as ditches or dams.

More of the world’s water that is under-used could also be used more

efficiently, experts said. Brackish water, though not good for drinking,

can easily be used for crops, as can fully or partially treated waste

water and sewage.

“If safe reuse of wastewater can be achieved, we can make an asset out

of wastewater for farmers [close to urban areas],” Mr Rijsberman said.

“In so doing, we can also help to make sanitation affordable to those

now most affected by the health risks of poor quality water.”

Fully treated sewage can also be used for drinking water. But although

widespread, this practice can be controversial, as a recent spat among

the residents in Toowoomba in Australia over whether to recycle sewage

showed.

Increasing urbanisation around the world is also putting stress on water

supplies, as people pile into cities that lack adequate water and sewage

infrastructure. The International Water Management Institute said that

governments should take more action to redirect water from agriculture

to urban areas.

Desalination, often touted as a solution, was not the answer, as it cost

too much money and energy. Water shortages are often thought of as

mainly affecting developing nations, but a study by the environmental

group WWF found that climate change, loss of wetlands that store water,

poorly thought out water infrastructure and resource mismanagement were

also resulting in water shortages in rich countries.

WWF found that countries on Europe’s Atlantic coast were suffering

recurring droughts, while water- intensive tourism and irrigated

agriculture were endangering water resources in the Mediterranean.

In spite of high rainfall in Japan, contamination of water supplies has

become a problem in many areas. The report contrasted Sydney and Houston

as cities that consumed more water than was replenished from nature,

with New York’s long tradition of conserving water in catchment areas

and extensive green areas.

As Pittock, director of WWF’s global freshwater programme, put it:

“Economic riches don’t translate into plentiful water. Scarcity and

pollution are becoming more common and responsibility for finding

solutions rests with both rich and poor nations.”

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