RE: luck

[Guest guest]

Hi,

I'd love to have a brain that really understands math at a deeper

level. (not a bigger math brain) I don't think I want to try hard

enough to learn it, either. Still, what I have learned of statistics

and probability is so great, so fascinating.

As far as a question like:

What are the odds of you pulling 4 cards and 3 of them being spades

and one of them being a " 2 " ? I found that my brain could grasp the

concept quite quickly. But the whole " z test " , " p test " and ANOVA,

stuff...I got it at the time...but it's gone now and there are harder

types of statistics that I'm sure are beyond me.

It is funny how people think that they can have a roll of good luck,

like it sticks together somehow.

And I agree with your analysis of how " luck " is in they eye of the

beholder.

I haven't believed in " good luck " as in something that one has or

doesn't, or as in something that can be influenced by a charm...since

I was about 20 years old. I think. I had a rabbits foot, or several,

when I was a kid. But, they never seemed to do me any good. :-)

I don't know a better word for my reaction to my being tall, for

instance. All the other English words that can be substituted mean

about the same thing.

eg " I feel fortuitous that I am tall. "

I can't say that I feel it is a blessing...to me a blessing is a gift,

more or less deliberate...like a reward or just a gift, not exactly

random, but based on the fact that the person wants to give you a gift.

At any rate, there was a time when I wanted there to be a way...any

way...that could make me 2 inches shorter. I used to try to figure

out how it could be done...hmmm...cutting into leg bones...removing

sections...

I didn't want to be 5 feet tall, but 5'6 or 5'8 " seemed like heaven

compared to 5' 10 " .

There was a time when I didn't realize how much easier my life is in

many situations because I am white-ish. :-) I just took it for granted.

Passing for Caucasian isn't a blessing, and it isn't the result of

good luck, or bad luck. It just is...but it confers some advantages

in the situations that I usually find myself.

If I were to land in the middle of a situation where there was rage

against white people...for any reason... I'd probably wish I wasn't so

pale.

I have wasted serious amounts of energy on being jealous of people

that I shouldn't have been jealous of, and I have felt, occasionally

that people are jealous of my intellect. I don't hang out with people

who are likely be that way, though.

I always thought that my ASD child's unusual set of problems was the

result of a roll of the genetic dice.

(people -not in my religion- have told me that God gives handicapped

children to special people .......I so do not think so.)

My other child seems to have gotten an unusually " good " roll of the

dice as far as looks and height and physical health, though it appears

that that one will deal with depression. Xe is in a much better

position than xyr father or me, to take care of xyrself in a manner

that confers more safety. But I didn't get a " healthy kid " to make

up for the " unhealthy " one.

My ex lives on the edge of society, which can be fun, no doubt, but he

doesn't have health insurance and doesn't have much of a support

system. He's been smoking all his life, and that's just dumb. (my

moralistic judgement) He's about due for some horrible disease.

More than anyone wanted to know...I'm sure.

:-)

Camille

>

> > As someone who would love to have a math and logic brain big enough

> > to truly understand statistics...

>

> The size of the brain is irrelevant.

>

> I have been thinking of the concept of " luck " of late. Luck (as in

good

> luck) can be defined as a confluence of events that results in a random

> (from the perspective of one person) outcome that is favorable, in that

> person's opinion. There is no entity or force called luck; luck is

> merely our reaction to the way that events have transpired. An

> unexpected delay on the way to the airport, causing a missed flight, is

> generally regarded as bad luck... but if the missed flight crashes,

then

> the very same delay is suddenly good luck. The perception of

" luck " is

> a reaction to an outcome that was largely out of our control. Only

> that, and nothing more. (Quoth... ah, never mind).

>

> When I play a game of chance and get an outcome that I like, I say that

> it was luck... to me, that means that I had no control over the

outcome,

> but I like it. I tend to say that it is luck when people tell me " good

> job " in an instance where I had no control over the outcome.

> Congratulating me for rolling a yahtzee (five dice with the same number

> showing on each) is silly, unless you are congratulating my telekinetic

> ability to control the movement of the dice (which does not exist).

>

> Some people believe that " luck " is an entity or a force that exists

> outside of a confluence of nonrelated external events. They think that

> they can have luck, or lose it (as in have bad luck). I see a TV

> commercial where an old guy says that he " plays the penny slots until I

> get hot, hot, hot. " It's just a commercial, of course, but the idea

> expressed seems to indicate a belief in luck that ebbs and flows like

> the tide... where someone can play penny slots (where one's gambling

> losses will be trivial if he is unlucky) until " luck " reaches a high

> point... and then he can switch to higher-paying slots. Ridiculous.

>

> I see this also in an online game that I play. I see people (other

> players) playing faux slot machines, and when they have to leave for

> whatever reason, they regularly ask that their machine be blocked, so

> that no one else can use that machine. Apparently, they are afraid

that

> someone will come along and win " their " jackpot. They are completely

> unaffected by the reciprocal truism that them winning someone else's

> jackpot, if they use a different machine, is just as likely. The odds

> of a given payout are the same at the time you pull the handle whether

> you have pulled that same handle 100 times or none. If your odds of

> winning a prize are 1 in 100, and you play 99 times without a win, your

> odds of winning are not 100% on the 100th try. They are 1 in 100, the

> same that they were when you first played.

>

> This silly belief in luck, as an entity that exists and controls

> outcome, boggles my mind. Even my mother seems to believe that I am

> " better " at rolling certain combinations of dice than she is.

>

>

>

[Guest guest]

You have put a very interesting problem, philosophical and

also practical - in what would affect Aspies:

> Some people believe that " luck " is an entity or a force that exists

> outside of a confluence of nonrelated external events.

" Backgammon is a game of skill and luck;

if you win it's skill, if you lose it's luck "

The psych jargon term for this is " internal/external locus

of control " and various coaching programs try to instill

Internal LOC as essential for Success (whatever that is).

I found a main problem for Spectrum people is the

right attribution of Responsability: to stand behind the

consequences of one's activity with dignity, without avoiding

(or being *perceived* as avoiding) AND gain correct

recognition of the real results.

Unfortunately in vague human problems it's not as clear

a distinction between Skill and Luck, and statistics won't

help much. Slick/ " clever " people know to blur bad events

with Luck whether they influenced them deliberately or

accidentally. They have the skill to " exploit responsibility " .

Then they have the skill of coming out well of bad situations

- think of the character " J.R.Ewing " ...

I wish I knew how to do this without moral compromises.

Thank you for thinking on this,

Mircea Pauca, Bucuresti, Romania

[Guest guest]

I always say, " If it wasn't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all. "

It seems that no matter how hard I plan, no matter how much I try to

anticipate problems that might crop up, that old " 's Law " nails me

every time.

Louis

In my house " normal " is only a setting on the dryer.

From: Mircea Pauca

You have put a very interesting problem, philosophical and

also practical - in what would affect Aspies:

> Some people believe that " luck " is an entity or a force that exists

> outside of a confluence of nonrelated external events.

" Backgammon is a game of skill and luck;

if you win it's skill, if you lose it's luck "

The psych jargon term for this is " internal/external locus

of control " and various coaching programs try to instill

Internal LOC as essential for Success (whatever that is).

I found a main problem for Spectrum people is the

right attribution of Responsability: to stand behind the

consequences of one's activity with dignity, without avoiding

(or being *perceived* as avoiding) AND gain correct

recognition of the real results.

Unfortunately in vague human problems it's not as clear

a distinction between Skill and Luck, and statistics won't

help much. Slick/ " clever " people know to blur bad events

with Luck whether they influenced them deliberately or

accidentally. They have the skill to " exploit responsibility " .

Then they have the skill of coming out well of bad situations

- think of the character " J.R.Ewing " ...

I wish I knew how to do this without moral compromises.

Thank you for thinking on this,

Mircea Pauca, Bucuresti, Romania

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