LA Times: New Autism Cases in CA Continue 3 year decline

[Guest guest]

New Autism Cases Level Off in State, Data Show;

Some say the slowdown may be linked to the removal of mercury from infants'

vaccines.

Los Angeles Times

Jul 13, 2005

by H. Maugh II

The number of newly diagnosed cases of autism in California, which had been

skyrocketing for more than a decade, has leveled off and may even be declining,

according to new data compiled by the state Department of Developmental

Services.

Although the total number of autistic children receiving special education

services from the state continues to grow -- bringing the current total to

28,046 -- the rate of increase peaked in 2002 and has dropped slightly since

then.

The findings are important because California has the best reporting system for

autism in the United States and is generally considered a bellwether for the

rest of the country.

Experts do not have a good explanation for the slowdown in new cases.

" Perhaps whatever caused [the number of cases] to go up -- environmental insult,

or whatever -- is no longer present, " said Dr. Hendren, executive

director of the UC MIND Institute, which researches neurodevelopmental

disorders. " It's all speculation. I wish we had good studies. "

Parent activist Rick Rollens of Sacramento, who played a key role in the

creation of the MIND Institute, said that the trend roughly corresponds to the

removal of mercury preservatives from pediatric vaccines. Many activist groups

say that the use of mercury in the vaccines caused the sudden increase in autism

cases. Federal scientists, however, have continually said that the evidence does

not support such a link.

The state data do not include children under the age of 3. According to the

department, about 90% of all autistic children are entered into the system

before the age of 6.

That means, Rollens said, that children born since 1999, about the time that

mercury was phasing out of vaccines, are just now entering the system. The

slowdown could thus reflect the change in vaccination practices.

" We can argue till the cows come home about what caused the increase, " Rollens

said, but the bottom line is that the increase is slowing.

California guarantees access to special education for all children diagnosed

with autism and other developmental problems. Thus, the state's data are

considered particularly reliable.

According to the state data, 2002 was a record year for new autism diagnoses,

with 3,259 cases. In 2003, the number of new cases slipped to 3,125. In 2004,

the number was 3,074.

For the first half of 2005, there were 1,470 new cases, compared to 1,518 in the

same period in 2004.

" The interesting thing is that, before 2002, every quarterly report had shown an

increase over the previous year, " Rollens said. " Now, that is no longer the

case. "

[Guest guest]

,

This story is dated July 13th. It has been three months since. Perhaps there are

new numbers?

[ ] LA Times: New Autism Cases in CA Continue 3 year

decline

New Autism Cases Level Off in State, Data Show;

Some say the slowdown may be linked to the removal of mercury from infants'

vaccines.

Los Angeles Times

Jul 13, 2005

by H. Maugh II

The number of newly diagnosed cases of autism in California, which had been

skyrocketing for more than a decade, has leveled off and may even be declining,

according to new data compiled by the state Department of Developmental

Services.

Although the total number of autistic children receiving special education

services from the state continues to grow -- bringing the current total to

28,046 -- the rate of increase peaked in 2002 and has dropped slightly since

then.

The findings are important because California has the best reporting system

for autism in the United States and is generally considered a bellwether for the

rest of the country.

Experts do not have a good explanation for the slowdown in new cases.

" Perhaps whatever caused [the number of cases] to go up -- environmental

insult, or whatever -- is no longer present, " said Dr. Hendren, executive

director of the UC MIND Institute, which researches neurodevelopmental

disorders. " It's all speculation. I wish we had good studies. "

Parent activist Rick Rollens of Sacramento, who played a key role in the

creation of the MIND Institute, said that the trend roughly corresponds to the

removal of mercury preservatives from pediatric vaccines. Many activist groups

say that the use of mercury in the vaccines caused the sudden increase in autism

cases. Federal scientists, however, have continually said that the evidence does

not support such a link.

The state data do not include children under the age of 3. According to the

department, about 90% of all autistic children are entered into the system

before the age of 6.

That means, Rollens said, that children born since 1999, about the time that

mercury was phasing out of vaccines, are just now entering the system. The

slowdown could thus reflect the change in vaccination practices.

" We can argue till the cows come home about what caused the increase, " Rollens

said, but the bottom line is that the increase is slowing.

California guarantees access to special education for all children diagnosed

with autism and other developmental problems. Thus, the state's data are

considered particularly reliable.

According to the state data, 2002 was a record year for new autism diagnoses,

with 3,259 cases. In 2003, the number of new cases slipped to 3,125. In 2004,

the number was 3,074.

For the first half of 2005, there were 1,470 new cases, compared to 1,518 in

the same period in 2004.

" The interesting thing is that, before 2002, every quarterly report had shown

an increase over the previous year, " Rollens said. " Now, that is no longer the

case. "

[Guest guest]

I am missing some information here.

First of all - what is the population development in the same years.

The decline in the number of new cases is quite subtle and should be

viewed against the number of kids in that birth year.

And (playing the devil's advocate here) - if the huge increase in

autism cases was due to increased recognition/better diagnostic

criteria etc, you would also expect the new diagnoses to level off at

some point when those " new criteria " are used by all doctors and

services.

Don't skin me alive, I am just saying that the above are possible ways

of interpreting the numbers from California.

Is there a link to the original data? That must contain the population

numbers...

>

> New Autism Cases Level Off in State, Data Show;

> Some say the slowdown may be linked to the removal of mercury from

infants' vaccines.

>

> Los Angeles Times

> Jul 13, 2005

>

> by H. Maugh II

>

> The number of newly diagnosed cases of autism in California, which

had been skyrocketing for more than a decade, has leveled off and may

even be declining, according to new data compiled by the state

Department of Developmental Services.

>

> Although the total number of autistic children receiving special

education services from the state continues to grow -- bringing the

current total to 28,046 -- the rate of increase peaked in 2002 and has

dropped slightly since then.

>

> The findings are important because California has the best reporting

system for autism in the United States and is generally considered a

bellwether for the rest of the country.

>

> Experts do not have a good explanation for the slowdown in new cases.

>

> " Perhaps whatever caused [the number of cases] to go up --

environmental insult, or whatever -- is no longer present, " said Dr.

Hendren, executive director of the UC MIND Institute,

which researches neurodevelopmental disorders. " It's all speculation.

I wish we had good studies. "

>

> Parent activist Rick Rollens of Sacramento, who played a key role in

the creation of the MIND Institute, said that the trend roughly

corresponds to the removal of mercury preservatives from pediatric

vaccines. Many activist groups say that the use of mercury in the

vaccines caused the sudden increase in autism cases. Federal

scientists, however, have continually said that the evidence does not

support such a link.

>

> The state data do not include children under the age of 3. According

to the department, about 90% of all autistic children are entered into

the system before the age of 6.

>

> That means, Rollens said, that children born since 1999, about the

time that mercury was phasing out of vaccines, are just now entering

the system. The slowdown could thus reflect the change in vaccination

practices.

>

> " We can argue till the cows come home about what caused the

increase, " Rollens said, but the bottom line is that the increase is

slowing.

>

> California guarantees access to special education for all children

diagnosed with autism and other developmental problems. Thus, the

state's data are considered particularly reliable.

>

> According to the state data, 2002 was a record year for new autism

diagnoses, with 3,259 cases. In 2003, the number of new cases slipped

to 3,125. In 2004, the number was 3,074.

>

> For the first half of 2005, there were 1,470 new cases, compared to

1,518 in the same period in 2004.

>

> " The interesting thing is that, before 2002, every quarterly report

had shown an increase over the previous year, " Rollens said. " Now,

that is no longer the case. "

>