Ottawa at risk for big earthquake

December 28, 2011

CBC – 9 hours ago

Seismologists and structural engineers say the city of Ottawa is at risk for a

big earthquake.

The Val-des-Bois quake that shook the capital last year reminded people that

Ottawa sits in an earthquake zone. And there is a chance it could one day

produce a destructive quake far worse than February's deadly magnitude-6.3

tremor in Christchurch, New Zealand.

Claude Blais was at the pharmacy in Gracefield, Que., when last year's quake

hit.

" All the lights broke down, and all the shelves emptied themselves. It was just

horrible, " Blais said. " You kind of think it's the end of the world. "

It wasn't like that in Ottawa. That's the difference between being close to the

epicentre of a 5.2 earthquake, and being 65 kilometres away.

Even a small quake can be damaging, but seismologists say the Ottawa region is

capable of something much bigger.

" We can certainly imagine something stronger could happen, " seismologist

of Natural Resources Canada said. " And we think there's a possibility of a

magnitude seven in the Ottawa or St. Lawrence Valley. "

That kind of earthquake close to the capital would be a doomsday scenario. But

something like this year's quake in Christchurch is much more likely.

" What we would worry about is the magnitude 6.2 or 6.3, 30 or 40 kilometres

away, " said. " That would be bad enough in Ottawa without going into the

worst, worst case.

" We would probably see building collapses among older brick buildings in

particular, and a lot of infrastructure would be damaged. "

Frustrating efforts to prepare for such a disaster, the movements of tectonic

plates near Ottawa are a mystery and can't be tracked. The mid-continental

faults that underlie the region give few clues as to when they might shift

again.

That means it could be in the next few minutes, or it could be millennia.

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