A secret nuclear test could be Iran’s trump card in Strait of Hormuz showdown: G

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A secret nuclear test could be Iran's trump card in Strait of Hormuz showdown:

Goodspeed analysis

Goodspeed Jan 6, 2012 – 10:56 AM ET | Last Updated: Jan 6, 2012 1:38 PM

ET

A secret nuclear test could be Iran's trump card in Strait of Hormuz showdown:

Goodspeed analysis

Goodspeed Jan 6, 2012 – 10:56 AM ET | Last Updated: Jan 6, 2012 1:38 PM

ET

REUTERS/Jamejamonline/Ebrahim Norouzi

Iran may have a lot of ships, but not much of a Navy

Iran's ultimate trump card in its current showdown with the international

community isn't merely to close the Strait of Hormuz and choke off the world's

oil supply – it is to secretly test a nuclear device.

By dramatically ending the guessing game over their nuclear intentions, Iran's

leaders could bolster their political position at home — just in time for

parliamentary elections in March — while transforming the regional military

balance.

Any kind of nuclear test, similar to North Korea's ambiguous 2006 one megaton

explosion, could give the Iranians exactly what they want – an uncertain

standoff that will pre-empt any conventional attacks by its enemies.

Iran's bluster about closing the Strait of Hormuz is really more diversion than

danger. Any move to choke off oil shipments would leave Iran utterly isolated on

the world stage and could trigger a conventional conflict that Iran can't

possibly win. An Iranian attack on an oil tanker or a U.S. Navy ship would be an

open invitation to a massive counterattack that would lay waste to Iran's air

defence systems in a matter of days, if not hours.

That in turn would leave Iran's nuclear program vulnerable to repeated attacks

by U.S. or Israeli aircraft. Simply laying mines in the Strait could trigger a

similar response, being regarded by the rest of the world as an act of war that

justifies a massive military response.

In any conventional conflict, Iran is at a distinct disadvantage. Despite last

week's carefully choreographed display of anti-ship missiles and attack boats

during 10 days of naval war games, Iran lacks a modern navy or air force. Tehran

never really rebuilt its conventional armed forces after the 1979 Iranian

Revolution deposed the Shah. It relies extensively on equipment the Shah bought

more than 30 years ago.

During the Iran-Iraq War, when Tehran had to resort to using children as human

mine sweepers, it tried unsuccessfully to close the Strait of Hormuz to oil

tanker traffic and damaged a U.S. guided missile frigate, the USS B.

with a mine. The U.S. response was to launch Operation Praying Mantis,

the largest U.S. naval engagement since World War Two, in which U.S. forces

simultaneously attacked Iran's oil export platforms, destroyed an Iranian

frigate, a gunboat and three speed boats.

The attack was so devastating it pushed Iran to end its eight-year war with

Iraq.

Iran doesn't want to see history repeat itself. In fact that is one of the main

reasons it is seeking nuclear weapons. Iran's ayatollahs firmly believe a

nuclear deterrent can make up for the weakness of their conventional forces and

will force the rest of the world to treat them with a little more caution.

So, like North Korea before it, Iran may be rushing right now to prepare even

the smallest of nuclear test explosions, in an effort to shift the international

debate on what to do with Iran to an entirely different plane. Just two weeks

ago U.S. Defence Secretary Leon Panetta predicted Iran could have nuclear

weapons in " probably about a year . . . perhaps a little less " . About the same

time, Washington's Nonproliferation Policy Education Centre published a report

that predicted: " If Iran were to now make an all-out effort to acquire nuclear

weapons, it could probably do so in two to six months. "

That timeline could be sped up considerably, if Iran has an as-yet undetected

clandestine nuclear enrichment facility, the study said.

Don't be surprised to wake up some morning soon to hear Iran has gone ahead with

a nuclear test and is suddenly ready to reopen diplomatic talks with its

critics.

National Post