In Times Square Blast, Echoes of Earlier Bombings

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http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/07/nyregion/07bicycle.html?hp

In Times Square Blast, Echoes of Earlier Bombings

By AL BAKER

Published: March 7, 2008

The British Consulate in 2005. The Mexican Consulate last year. And

on Thursday, the Times Square military recruiting station.

Three bombings with similar devices at three high-profile locations

in Manhattan, each occurring at nearly the same time of day, in the

predawn hours; each inflicting little damage; none injuring people.

And in each case, someone — most likely a man — seen pedaling away on

a bicycle with a hooded jacket or sweatshirt hiding his face.

These are the similarities that police detectives and federal agents

are exploring as they investigate whether these blasts, so seemingly

similar, were the work of the same person or group, and what the

motive was.

Law enforcement officials stopped short on Thursday of definitively

linking the explosions — or of trying to divine the significance of

the latest, most visible target: the island at the center of the

pinball-game brightness of Times Square.

" The fact of the matter is that all three incidents happened within a

30-minute span, a 25-minute span, " Police Commissioner W.

said at a news conference at 1 Police Plaza, where he played a

video surveillance tape that showed the blast occurring at 3:40:43,

although he said police believed it was closer to 3:43. The May 5,

2005 bombing at the British Consulate occurred at 3:55 a.m.; the

bombing last year at the Mexican Consulate was at 3:40 a.m. on Oct.

26.

The device used on Thursday was " roughly similar " to those in the two

earlier bombings, Mr. said. No one has directly claimed

responsibility for the explosions, another similarity.

Late Thursday, investigators analyzed letters received by members of

Congress with pictures taken before the blast of someone in front of

the recruiting station with the words " We did it. Happy New Year. " As

the night wore on, investigators increasingly believed the letters

had no connection to the bombing, but were probably a strange

coincidence, one official said.

The bombings in 2005 and last year involved two devices each, each

packed with black gunpowder. One was modeled after the " lemon " type

of grenade used in the Vietnam War, the other was scored like the

rough " pineapple " grenade used during World War II. This time, the

explosives were packed in a metal ammunition box, the kind that can

be bought at a military surplus store. The authorities have yet to

determine whether the explosive was black gunpowder.

" I read an intelligence briefing this morning that there is a pattern

of similarity in the modus operandi, specifically the delivery of the

improvised explosive devices to the target, " said B. Barry, who

retired in 2002 as a detective in the New York Police Department's

Bomb Squad and is now an official with the International Association

of Bomb Technicians and Investigators.

" The question now is: Are the forensics similar in nature? Are they

able to link the three together in any way? " he said. " And, will they

declare it a serial bomber if they link the three I.E.D. components

forensically? "

The Times Square blast drew the attention of the national news media,

the involvement of the Federal Bureau of Investigation and comments

from presidential candidates. Experts tried to glean motives from the

similarities.

" What you have here is a very frustrated individual, someone who is

trying to send a message, but it is a very confused message, " said

Ray Pierce, a retired New York City detective who now works as a

criminal profiler.

The use of a bicycle, the early-morning hours of the attacks and the

improvised nature of the devices, as well as the low-grade or low-

velocity explosive, suggest the perpetrator might be a young person

who is more focused on sending a message than hurting anyone, Mr.

Pierce added.

He said that if the letters that surfaced in Washington were found to

be from the individual or group behind the explosion on

Thursday, " it's positive, " because it is a less violent way of

communicating than setting off bombs.

" The more dialogue, the higher the probability this could be resolved

without further violence, " he said. In light of the letters, Mr.

Pierce said, officials should encourage the person to open a dialogue

by anonymously writing or calling.

The bombing at the British Consulate, at 845 Third Avenue between

51st and 52nd Streets, occurred on an election day in Britain. The

one outside the Mexican Consulate, at 27 East 39th Street near

Madison Avenue, came on the first anniversary of the fatal shooting

of Bradley Roland Will, 36, a journalist from New York who often

traveled to Latin America to chronicle little-known disputes.

And the explosion on Thursday occurred on the 38th anniversary of the

day when three members of the revolutionary group Weather Underground

accidentally blew themselves up in their town house in Greenwich

Village while making bombs. The significance of these dates, if any,

is unknown.

People move in ways they are comfortable with, even when carrying out

violence, analysts said. Police officers, for example, often use guns

to commit suicide, because that is familiar.

" He feels comfortable on the bicycle, " Mr. Pierce said of the bomber,

suggesting the person could be a bike messenger.

Several analysts said that the forensics of an explosive device can

tell investigators much about what they are dealing with. Bombers

tend to have signatures.

Mr. Barry described the components of a bomb that investigators " will

be looking for. " He said they are: a power source, such as an AA

battery or a fuse; an initiator, like the fuse itself or a cellphone

or a timing device; an explosive; and a switch.

Another prime piece of forensic evidence would be the ammunition box

fashioned into the bomb and any remnants of it.

In this case it was a metal box used for banded machine gun bullets,

the authorities said. Mr. Barry said such a device would easily fall

apart.

" They will pick up every scrap they can find, " Mr. Barry said. " They

might be able to get powder, they might be able to get a fingerprint

and they might be able to get DNA, from sweat, for instance, and they

might be able to make a match with any of those other two devices. "

Mark J. Mershon, the assistant F.B.I. director who heads the bureau's

New York office, said the physical evidence would be taken to the

agency's laboratory in Quantico, Va., for analysis, where evidence

from the bombings in 2005 and 2007 were also sent.