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Some of you may have noticed a one-man anti-anti-obesity crusade in

the person of Campos, who has recently come out with a book

called " The Obesity Myth " . Here are some links to articles about him

and his ideas. Below I have appended the text of two longer articles,

one from New Scientist magazine, the other from the New Republic. Many

people reply that Campos is " obviously " wrong. Perhaps. But what is

the convincing scientific evidence that directly refutes his

arguments? (I have found one paper, see below). Has anyone seen a

convincing counterargument, based on scientific evidence, in print? If

so, I would be grateful to know about it.

Corvin

Toronto, Canada

http://www.guardian.co.uk/weekend/story/0,3605,1200549,00.html

http://www.salon.com/mwt/feature/2004/06/29/obesity_myth/index.html

http://www.spiked-online.com/Printable/0000000CA54B.htm

I first came across Campos through the New Republic article appended

below. When I read it, I did a cursory search of the literature, and

immediately found this article (if you do not have online access via a

university, I can send you a pdf of the article):

*************

Fitness and Fatness as Predictors of Mortality from All Causes and from

Cardiovascular Disease in Men and Women in the Lipid Research Clinics Study

Am J Epidemiol 2002;156:832–841

Abstract:

The relative size of the effects of fitness and fatness on longevity

has been studied in only one cohort. The authors examined this issue

using data from 2,506 women and 2,860 men in the Lipid Research

Clinics Study. The mean age was 46.6 years in women and 45.1 years in

men at baseline (1972–1976). Fitness was assessed using a treadmill

test, and fatness was assessed as body mass index calculated from

measured height and weight. Participants were followed for vital

status through 1998. Hazard ratios were calculated using proportional

hazard models that included covariates for age, education, smoking,

alcohol intake, and the dietary Keys score.

Fitness and fatness were both associated with mortality from all

causes and from cardiovascular disease. For mortality from all causes,

the adjusted hazard ratios were 1.32 among the fit-fat, 1.30 among the

unfit-not fat, and 1.57 among the unfit-fat women compared with

fit-not fat women. Among men the same hazard ratios were 1.44, 1.25,

and 1.49. There were no significant interactions between fitness and

fatness in either men or women. The authors conclude that both fitness

and fatness are risk factors for mortality, and that being fit does

not completely reverse the increased risk associated with excess

adiposity.

**************

This article, as far as I can tell one of the largest well-designed

studies explicitly seeking to disambiguate risk correlations with

fatness and fitness, was published before Campos' New Republic

article. Yet he did not mention it -- could it be because it didn't

confirm his beliefs? A year later, ahead of his book release, more

Campos articles appeared. Campos was still not referring to this

study, or any evidence that might disconfirm him. It was at this point

I decided to stop wasting my time reading him. However, he keeps

appearing, and no one seems to be debunking him.

Here is another piece of evidence that Campos ignores. (What the

evidence supports appears to be more tenuous than the story the

journalist is telling. Nonetheless, more leads to pursue in

investigating how, and whether, excess adipose tissue might be

harmful.)

****************

Findings show how obesity kills: Fat cells prone to releasing harmful

hormones: Bulk isn't just dead weight as cells surprisingly active

http://tinyurl.com/ytxd4

*******************

A further aspect of obesity Campos ignores, as pointed out by the

letter to the New Scientist reproduced below, is the correlation with

diabetes.

Campos has many good arguments, and he is right to challenge many of

the assumptions driving the discourse on obesity. Unfortunately, he

also ignores evidence which doesn't support his view.

I'm not convinced by the evidence that he provides that the

correlation between obesity and mortality can mostly be accounted for

by yo-yo dieters. It's plausible to me that yo-yo dieting is bad, for

many reasons. But it's not plausible that it accounts for all

mortality risk associated with excess weight. He disputes the BMI as a

measure, which is fair enough, although I find his rhetoric in the

earlier article disingenous -- " athletes are overweight according to

the BMI " . Well sure, probably because they have a lot of muscle. I

presume there is a cardiovascular cost to having excess muscle as

well, but I don't know if these things have been studied in great

detail. Maybe excess muscle is associated with an equal increase in

mortality risk (and so BMI would be useful as an overall measure). But

Campos doesn't seem interested in going much into the differences, for

example, that there might be different causes of fatness. His

supposedly critical attitude stops at precisely the point where his

own beliefs begin. In seeking differences, he stops at the point where

they discredit the view he wants to discredit, and goes no further.

For example, is yo-yo dieting a problem because it not only tends to

lead to greater and greater and weight gain, but also tends to

accelerate loss of lean mass and accelerate the slowing of metabolism

in the long run? Might there be differences in weight loss strategies?

He seems to be focused like a laser on discrediting the whole

discourse that excess weight is unhealthy, and no more. He may be

right, but my bad impression of his rhetorical strategies doesn't

persuade me to donate much time to in-depth reading of his newer

writings. I'll wait for history to vindicate him, or not.

The following article is from the Newscientist, and is subscriber

only, so I am reprinting it below. Following it is a critical letter

from the subsequent issue of New Scientist, and following that, some

of my own commentary.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------\

-----------------

Fat under fire

Why our fears about fat are Misplaced

The war on obesity is based not on sound science but on medical

self-interest and cultural hysteria, argues Campos.

New Scientist 11 May 2004

FAT, flab, adipose tissue: call it what you will, it is one of the

great obsessions of our age. In the early 1980s, stories about obesity

were running in the world's major English-language media at the modest

rate of about one per week. BY 2003, reports sociologist Abigail Saguy

from the University of California at Los Angeles, the figure had

expanded to nearly 20 per day. We are in the throes of an

unprecedented " obesity epidemic " , doctors, scientists and health

organisations repeatedly tell us.

Well, people certainly have been getting fatter in many countries. But

here's the conundrum: overall health and life expectancy in these

nations continues to improve. Take the US. Between 1990 and 2002 life

expectancy here rose from 75.2 to 77.4 years, even though the nation's

obesity rate rose, according to the Centers for Disease Control and

Prevention, by 61 per cent. Indeed over that same period, the

incidence of type 2 diabetes, the supposed bete noire of rising

obesity levels, hardly changed, while death rates from heart disease,

hypertension and some cancers actually dropped.

Perhaps the timebomb has yet to go off: public health officials often

claim we are " about " to see the devastating consequences of

obesity. Yet their predecessors were making the same claims 50 years

ago - and indeed according to current definitions nearly half the

American population was overweight as long ago as 1960.

So what else is going on that might explain the conundrum? In the past

few years I have been taking a close look at the claims of those who

warn of the supposedly impending global calamity of the obesity

epidemic. I have sought out the studies and findings behind the public

health pronouncements, and canvassed views from a wide range of

experts on what they really reveal. What I have found may prove hard

for some to swallow: save for exceptions involving truly extreme

cases, the medical literature simply does not support the claim that

higher than average weight is a significant independent health risk.

What it actually demonstrates is, first, that the association between

increased weight and increased health risk is weak, and disappears

altogether when confounding variables are taken into account; and

second, that public health programmes which attempt to make

" overweight " and " obese " people thinner are, for a variety of reasons,

likely to do more harm than good. In short, the current war on fat is

an irrational outburst of cultural hysteria, unsupported by sound

science.

Sceptical? Here are some statistics from what was, in the 1980s, the

world's largest ever epidemiological study. From records of nearly 2

million Norwegians spanning a decade, it found the highest life

expectancy among people with a body mass index (BMI) of 26 to 28 -

people who were solidly overweight, according to definitions now used

by, among others, the World Health Organization and the American

public health establishment. Furthermore, the study found people with

a BMI of 18 to 20 (almost all of whom these same institutions would

classify as " ideally thin " ) had a lower life expectancy than those

with BMIs between 34 and 36: who under current classifications were 60

to 75 pounds (25 to 35 kilograms) overweight, and therefore seriously

obese

As my book " The Obesity Myth " describes in detail, these statistics

are typical of such studies. Large-scale studies consistently find

little or no increase in mortality risk associated with weight, except

at statistical extremes. Indeed, many such studies find the lowest

mortality rates among supposedly overweight people, and a higher

mortality risk among people who are five pounds " underweight " than

among those who are supposedly 75 pounds overweight. And even these

modest associations disappear when variables other than weight are

taken into account. BMI figures correlate with increased mortality

risk only among sedentary individuals: people who maintain quite

modest activity levels show no such correlation.

But aren't fat people who slim down and stay slim healthier in the

long run? Nobody can say, because no long-term study has tested the

notion. And why not? For the simple reason that researchers have been

unable to produce significant long-term weight loss in statistically

meaningful numbers of people. Researchers repeatedly find instead that

for the vast majority of people the long-term result of attempts to

lose weight is " weight cycling " - repeatedly losing weight and then

putting it on again. And that, as numerous studies have found, is no

recipe for long-term health. For example, the famous Framingham study

in the US found a strong correlation between weight cycling and

mortality, and no increased risk among obese people who did not weight

cycle.

Given all this, how do the public health officials who wage the

increasingly intense war on fat support their arguments? The answer

should disturb anyone who believes science is immune to the effects of

economic and ideological bias. For on close inspection, the current

panic over obesity is based on a severe distortion of scientific data.

The distortion tends to take one of three common forms. The first goes

to the heart of the nature of epidemiology, which is, in the words of

Harvard researcher Hermekens, " a crude and inexact science "

.. Epidemiologists, he says, " tend to overstate findings, either

because we want attention or more grant money " . (Ironically it is

Hermekens whose work has been exploited by some of the worst fomenters

of fat panic.)

Large-scale observational studies can never control for more than a

few of the many factors that might explain the associations they

observe between risk factors and disease, so epidemiologists who are

careful not to overstate their findings will point to the dangers of

attributing causal significance to small risk associations. A common

rule of thumb is to view with suspicion any factor that fails to at

least double relative risk, especially when the baseline risk is small.

Yet in the case of obesity, such caution is routinely

abandoned. Health officials and researchers all too often treat small

risks as presumptively causal. One recent study, for example, found a

13 per cent increased risk of post-menopausal breast cancer associated

with being overweight. It added up to just one extra death per 10,000

" overweight " women per year. The authors still treated the finding as

strong evidence of a causal relationship between weight and cancer.

A second way in which health officials - and some researchers -

routinely distort the facts on obesity is through ignoring confounding

variables. There is overwhelming evidence that many causes of

ill-health disproportionately affect the heavier than average person -

sedentary lifestyle, nutrition, weight cycling, poverty, access to and

discrimination in healthcare, social discrimination generally. Yet

many prominent obesity researchers prefer instead to pin the blame

exclusively on body fat.

A particularly egregious example of this is a famous study that

appeared in the Journal of the American Medical Association YAMA) in

1999, which concluded that excess weight was killing 300,000 Americans

per year. This 'fact " has been cited more than 1700 times in the major

English language media over the last two years alone. In their

statement of methods, the authors noted: " Our calculations assume that

all (controlling for age, sex and smoking) excess mortality in obese

people is due to their adiposity " ! While assuming the validity of

one's conclusion certainly simplifies the process of scientific

investigation, research ought to be about more than confirming

hypotheses through circular reasoning.

The final distortion is to adopt flexible standards of proof. When

those prosecuting the war on fat encounter findings that appear to

confirm their views, they often dismiss any attempt to question them

as ignorant, irrational or biased. Yet with findings that contradict

their views, this confident positivism vanishes. The contradictory

findings are explained away by an almost endless assortment of

methodological caveats.

This leaping back and forth between uncritical faith and profound

scepticism is particularly striking when researchers perform

interpretive acrobatics with their own findings. For example, the

authors of a 2003 JAMA study concluded that it provided compelling

evidence of the deadly effects of higher than average weight. The

study actually found negligible mortality increases among whites with

BMIs up to the mid 30s, and no evidence of elevated mortality rates

among black Americans across the " overweight " range (BMI 25 to

30). Indeed, among black women, no extra mortality risk was observed

until a BMI Of 37. But an accompanying editorial, by JoAnn Manson of

the Harvard Medical School, commented that " It would be a great

disservice to blacks if these results were used to promulgate the

concept that excess weight is not harmful to them "

Ultimately, the current panic over increasing body mass has little to

do with science, and everything to do with cultural and political

factors that distort scientific enquiry. Among those factors are greed

(consensus panels put together by organisations such as the WHO that

have declared obesity a major health crisis are often made up wholly

of doctors who run diet clinics), and cultural anxieties about social

overconsumption in general.

Consider this. While the average American is about eight pounds

heavier than in 1990, the average American car now weighs several

hundred pounds more than it did in that year. Which statistic has more

relevance to the world's long-term health?

Campos is a professor of law at the University of Colorado. The

Obesity Myth is published by Gotham Books (www.obesitymyth.com)

Campos is a professor of law at the University of Colorado. The

Obesity Myth is published by Gotham Books (www.obesitymyth.com)

Letter to NS in response:

1 May 2004 - NewScientist 121

Campos makes some interesting and relevant points in his article

about obesity (1 May, p 20). It is quite true that some groups are

more susceptible to the harmful effects of obesity than others. It is

also likely that weight cycling is damaging. Further, there is

certainly an element of religious fervour about some people's approach

to this problem.

However, Campos is a lawyer and lawyers want to win their cases, even

if that means ignoring inconvenient facts. Most importantly, he does

not mention in his article - though he may in his book - the question

of diabetes. There is no doubt at all that the prevalence of diabetes

is increasing rapidly in both developed and developing countries. In

90 per cent of cases this is so-called type 2 diabetes, which is

strongly linked to obesity, especially where excess fat is laid down

in the abdomen.

This is very likely to shorten life expectancy, especially by

promoting coronary artery disease and other problems with

arteries. Although this type of diabetes has very largely been seen in

the middle-aged and elderly there are now reports of cases in obese

adolescents in the US, about 30 years prematurely.

The idea that the obese teenager does not have a health problem is

wishful thinking.

*************************************

(From the New Republic)

WHAT THE DIET INDUSTRY WON'T TELL YOU.

Weighting Game

by Campos

Post date: 01.02.03

Issue date: 01.13.03

Perhaps America's most common New Year's resolution is to lose weight.

This week, as we push ourselves away from the increasingly guilty

pleasures of the holiday table, we will be bombarded with ads

imploring us to slim down with the help of health club memberships,

exercise equipment, or the latest miracle diet. Yet, however common it

may be, the resolution to lose weight appears to be a particularly

ineffective one: The latest figures indicate that 65 percent of the

adult population--more than 135 million Americans--is either

" overweight " or " obese. " And government officials are increasingly

eager to declare America's burgeoning waistline the nation's

number-one public health problem. The Surgeon General's recent Call to

Action to Prevent and Decrease Overweight and Obesity labels being fat

an " epidemic " that kills upward of 300,000 Americans per year.

Such declarations lend our obsession with being thin a respectable

medical justification. But are they accurate? A careful survey of

medical literature reveals that the conventional wisdom about the

health risks of fat is a grotesque distortion of a far more

complicated story. Indeed, subject to exceptions for the most extreme

cases, it's not at all clear that being overweight is an independent

health risk of any kind, let alone something that kills hundreds of

thousands of Americans every year. While having a sedentary lifestyle

or a lousy diet--both factors, of course, that can contribute to being

overweight--do pose health risks, there's virtually no evidence that

being fat, in and of itself, is at all bad for you. In other words,

while lifestyle is a good predictor of health, weight isn't: A

moderately active fat person is likely to be far healthier than

someone who is svelte but sedentary. What's worse, Americans' (largely

unsuccessful) efforts to make themselves thin through dieting and

supplements are themselves a major cause of the ill health associated

with being overweight--meaning that America's war on fat is actually

helping cause the very disease it is supposed to cure.

The most common way researchers determine whether someone is

overweight is by using the " body mass index " (BMI), a simple and

rather arbitrary mathematical formula that puts people of varying

heights and weights on a single integrated scale. According to the

government, you're " overweight " (that is, your weight becomes a

significant health risk) if you have a BMI figure of 25 and " obese "

(your weight becomes a major health risk) if your BMI is 30 or higher.

A five-foot-four-inch woman is thus labeled " overweight " and " obese "

at weights of 146 pounds and 175 pounds, respectively; a

five-foot-ten-inch man crosses those thresholds at weights of 174

pounds and 210 pounds. Such claims have been given enormous publicity

by, among other government officials, former Surgeons General C.

Everett Koop--whose Shape Up America foundation has been a leading

source for the claim that fat kills 300,000 Americans per year--and

Satcher, who in 1998 declared that America's young people are

" seriously at risk of starting out obese and dooming themselves to the

difficult task of overcoming a tough illness. " And the federal

government is beginning to put its money where its mouth is: Last

April, the Internal Revenue Service announced that diet-related costs

could henceforth be deducted as medical expenses, as long as such

expenses were incurred in the course of treating the " disease " of

being fat--a ruling that will create a multibillion dollar per year

public subsidy for the weight-loss industry.

Yet, despite the intense campaign to place fat in the same category of

public health hazards as smoking and drug abuse, there is in fact no

medical basis for the government's BMI recommendations or the public

health policies based on them. The most obvious flaw lies with the BMI

itself, which is simply based on height and weight. The arbitrariness

of these charts becomes clear as soon as one starts applying them to

actual human beings. As The Wall Street Journal pointed out last July,

taking the BMI charts seriously requires concluding that Brad Pitt,

Clooney, and Jordan are all " overweight, " and that

Sylvester Stallone and baseball star Sammy Sosa are " obese. " According

to my calculations, fully three-quarters of National Football League

running backs--speedy, chiseled athletes, all of whom, it's safe to

say, could beat the world's fastest obesity researcher by a wide

margin in a 100-yard dash--are " obese. "

To be sure, even if the BMI categories can be spectacularly wrong in

cases such as those involving professional athletes, they're often a

pretty good indicator of how " fat " most people are in everyday life.

The real question is whether being fat--as determined by the BMI or by

any other measure--is actually a health risk. To answer this question,

it's necessary to examine the epidemiological evidence. Since the

measurable factors that affect whether someone contracts any

particular disease or condition can easily number in the hundreds or

thousands, it's often difficult to distinguish meaningful data from

random statistical noise. And, even where there are clear

correlations, establishing cause and effect can be a complicated

matter. If researchers observe that fat people are more prone to

contract, say, heart disease than thin people, this fact by itself

doesn't tell them whether being fat contributes to acquiring heart

disease. It could easily be the case that some other factor or set of

factors--i.e., being sedentary or eating junk food or dieting

aggressively--contributes both to being fat and to contracting heart

disease.

Unfortunately, in the world of obesity research these sorts of

theoretical and practical complications are often dealt with by simply

ignoring them. The most cited studies purporting to demonstrate that

fat is a major health risk almost invariably make little or no attempt

to control for what medical researchers refer to as " confounding

variables. " For example, the research providing the basis for the

claim that fat contributes to the deaths of 300,000 Americans per

year--a 1999 study published in the Journal of the American Medical

Association (JAMA)--did not attempt to control for any confounding

variables other than age, gender, and smoking.

And, even among studies--such as the JAMA one--that ignore variables

such as diet or activity levels, there is tremendous disagreement: For

every study that indicates some sort of increased health risk for

people with BMI figures between 25 and 30 (a category that currently

includes more than one out of every three adult Americans), another

study indicates such people enjoy lower overall health risks than

those whom the government and the medical establishment have labeled

" ideal-weight " individuals (i.e., people with BMI figures between 18.5

and 24.9). Perhaps the most comprehensive survey of the literature

regarding the health risks of different weight levels is a 1996 study

by scientists at the National Center for Health Statistics and Cornell

University. This survey analyzed data from dozens of previous studies

involving more than 600,000 subjects. It concluded that, for

nonsmoking men, the lowest mortality rate was found among those with

BMI figures between 23 and 29, meaning that a large majority of the

healthiest men in the survey would be considered " overweight " by

current government standards. For nonsmoking women, the results were

even more striking: The authors concluded that, for such women, the

BMI range correlating with the lowest mortality rate is extremely

broad, from about 18 to 32, meaning that a woman of average height can

weigh anywhere within an 80-pound range without seeing any

statistically meaningful change in her risk of premature death.

What accounts for the conflict between studies that claim being

" overweight " is a significant health risk and those that suggest such

weight levels might actually be optimal? The biggest factor is that

researchers fail to point out that, in practical terms, the

differences in risk they are measuring are usually so small as to be

trivial. For example, suppose that Group A consists of 2,500 subjects

and that over the course of a decade five of these people die from

heart attacks. Now suppose that Group B consists of 4,000 subjects and

that five members of this group also die from heart attacks over the

same ten-year span. One way of characterizing these figures is to say

that people in Group A are subject to a (implicitly terrifying) 60

percent greater risk of a fatal heart attack than those in Group B.

But the practical reality is that the relevant risk for members of

both groups is miniscule. Indeed, upon closer examination, almost all

studies that claim " overweight " people run significantly increased

health risks involve this sort of interpretation (or, less generously,

distortion) of their data.

This phenomenon is in part a product of the fact that studies that

purport to find significant elevations of mortality risk associated

with different weight levels usually focus on mortality rates among

relatively young adults. Since these studies typically involve very

small numbers of deaths among very large numbers of subjects, it isn't

surprising to see what appear to be large oscillations in relative

risk across different studies. Indeed, one often observes large,

apparently random oscillations in risk even within studies. Lost in

the uproar over the JAMA study's 300,000 deaths figure is the peculiar

fact that the report actually found that supposedly " ideal-weight "

individuals with a BMI of 20 had essentially the same mortality risk

as " obese " persons with BMI figures of 30 and that both groups had a

slightly higher mortality risk than " overweight " people with BMI

figures of 25.

In short, the Cornell survey of the existing literature merely

confirmed what anyone who actually examines the data will discover: In

a decided majority of studies, groups of people labeled " overweight "

by current standards are found to have equal or lower mortality rates

than groups of supposedly ideal-weight individuals. University of

Virginia professor Glenn Gaesser has estimated that three-quarters of

all medical studies on the effects of weight on health between 1945

and 1995 concluded either that " excess " weight had no effect on health

or that it was actually beneficial. And again, this remains the case

even before one begins to take into account complicating factors such

as sedentary lifestyle, poor nutrition, dieting and diet drugs, etc.

" As of 2002, " Gaesser points out in his book Big Fat Lies, " there has

not been a single study that has truly evaluated the effects of weight

alone on health, which means that 'thinner is healthier' is not a fact

but an unsubstantiated hypothesis for which there is a wealth of

evidence that suggests the reverse. "

As we have seen, most of the people the government and the health

establishment claim are too fat--those categorized as " overweight " or

" mildly obese " -do not in fact suffer from worse health than supposedly

" ideal-weight " individuals. It is true that some groups of fat

people--generally those with BMI figures well above 30--are less

healthy than average, although not nearly to the extent the anti-fat

warriors would have you believe. (Large-scale mortality studies

indicate that women who are 50 or even 75 pounds " overweight " will on

average still have longer life expectancies than those who are 10 to

15 pounds " underweight, " a.k.a. fashionably thin.) Yet there is

considerable evidence that even substantially obese people are not

less healthy because they're fat. Rather, other factors are causing

them to be both fat and unhealthy. Chief among these factors are

sedentary lifestyle and diet-driven weight fluctuation.

The most comprehensive work regarding the dangers of sedentary

lifestyle has been done at the Institute in Dallas. The

institute's director of research, Blair, is probably the

world's leading expert on the relationship between activity levels and

overall health. For the past 20 years, the Institute has

maintained a database that has tracked the health, weight, and basic

fitness levels of tens of thousands of individuals. What Blair and his

colleagues have discovered turns the conventional wisdom about the

relationship between fat and fitness on its head. Quite simply, when

researchers factor in the activity levels of the people being studied,

body mass appears to have no relevance to health whatsoever--even

among people who are substantially " obese. " It turns out that " obese "

people who engage in moderate levels of physical activity have

radically lower rates of premature death than sedentary people who

maintain supposedly " ideal-weight " levels.

For example, a 1999 Institute study found the highest death

rate to be among sedentary men with waist measurements under 34 inches

and the lowest death rate to be among physically fit men with waist

measurements of 40 inches or more. And these results do not change

when the researchers control for body-fat percentage, thus dispensing

with the claim that such percentages, rather than body mass itself,

are the crucial variables when measuring the health effects of weight.

Fat people might be less healthy if they're fat because of a sedentary

lifestyle. But, if they're fat and active, they have nothing to worry

about.

Still, even if it's clear that it's better to be fat and active than

fat and sedentary--or even thin and sedentary--isn't it the case that

being thin and active is the best combination of all? Not according to

Blair's research: His numerous studies of the question have found no

difference in mortality rates between fit people who are fat and those

who are thin.

Of course, in a culture as anti-fat as ours, the whole notion of

people who are both fat and fit seems contradictory. Yet the research

done by Blair and others indicates that our belief that fatness and

fitness are in fundamental tension is based on myths, not science.

" Fitness " in Blair's work isn't defined by weight or body-fat

percentage but rather by cardiovascular and aerobic endurance, as

measured by treadmill stress tests. And he has found that people don't

need to be marathon runners to garner the immense health benefits that

follow from maintaining good fitness levels. Blair's research shows

that to move into the fitness category that offers most of the health

benefits of being active, people need merely to engage in some

combination of daily activities equivalent to going for a brisk

half-hour walk. To move into the top fitness category requires a bit

more--the daily equivalent of jogging for perhaps 25 minutes or

walking briskly for close to an hour. (Our true public health scandal

has nothing to do with fat and everything to do with the fact that 80

percent of the population is so inactive that it doesn't even achieve

the former modest fitness standard.)

Other researchers have reached similar conclusions. For instance, the

Harvard Alumni Study, which has tracked the health of Harvard

graduates for many decades, has found the lowest mortality rates among

those graduates who have gained the most weight since college while

also expending at least 2,000 calories per week in physical

activities. Such work suggests strongly that when obesity researchers

have described the supposed health risks of fat, what they have

actually been doing is using fat as a proxy--and a poor one at

that--for a factor that actually does have a significant effect on

health and mortality: cardiovascular and metabolic fitness. As Blair

himself has put it, Americans have a " misdirected obsession with

weight and weight loss. The focus is all wrong. It's fitness that is

the key. "

If fat is ultimately irrelevant to health, our fear of fat,

unfortunately, is not. Americans' obsession with thinness feeds an

institution that actually is a danger to Americans' health: the diet

industry.

Tens of millions of Americans are trying more or less constantly to

lose 20 or 30 pounds. (Recent estimates are that, on any particular

day, close to half the adult population is on some sort of diet.) Most

say they are doing so for their health, often on the advice of their

doctors. Yet numerous studies--two dozen in the last 20 years

alone--have shown that weight loss of this magnitude (and indeed even

of as little as ten pounds) leads to an increased risk of premature

death, sometimes by an order of several hundred percent. By contrast,

over this same time frame, only a handful of studies have indicated

that weight loss leads to lower mortality rates--and one of these

found an eleven-hour increase in life expectancy per pound lost (i.e.,

less than an extra month of life in return for a 50-pound weight

loss). This pattern holds true even when studies take into account

" occult wasting, " the weight loss that sometimes accompanies a serious

but unrelated illness. For example, a major American Cancer Society

study published in 1995 concluded in no uncertain terms that healthy

" overweight " and " obese " women were better off if they didn't lose

weight. In this study, healthy women who intentionally lost weight

over a period of a year or longer suffered an all-cause increased risk

of premature mortality that was up to 70 percent higher than that of

healthy women who didn't intentionally lose weight. Meanwhile,

unintentional weight gain had no effect on mortality rates. (A 1999

report based on the same data pool found similar results for men.) The

only other large study that has examined the health effects of

intentional weight loss, the Iowa Women's Health Study, also failed to

find an association between weight loss and significantly lower

mortality rates. In fact, in this 42,000-person study, " overweight "

women had an all-cause mortality rate 5 to 10 percent lower than that

of " ideal-weight " women.

One explanation for the ill effects of intentional weight loss is diet

drugs (others include the binge eating to which chronic dieters are

especially prone). The havoc wrought by drugs such as Redux and

fen-phen is well-known and has resulted in billions of dollars' worth

of legal liability for their manufacturers. What has been less

publicized is that other diet drugs are being discovered to have

similarly devastating effects: For example, a recent Yale University

study indicates that women between the ages of 18 and 49 who use

appetite suppressants containing phenylpropanolamine increase their

risk of hemorrhagic stroke by 1,558 percent. (This over-the-counter

drug was used by approximately nine million Americans at any given

time during the late '90s. The Food and Drug Administration, which is

in the process of formally banning the drug, has requested that in the

interim manufacturers remove it from the market voluntarily.)

The grim irony lurking behind these statistics is that, as numerous

studies have demonstrated, people who lose weight via dieting and diet

drugs often end up weighing a good deal more than people of similar

initial weight who never diet. The explanation for this perverse

result can be found in the well-documented " set-point "

phenomenon--that is, the body's tendency to fight the threat of

starvation by slowing its metabolism in response to a caloric

reduction. For example, obesity researcher Ernsberger has done

several studies in which rats are placed on very low-calorie diets.

Invariably, when the rats are returned to their previous level of

caloric intake, they get fat by eating exactly the same number of

calories that had merely maintained their weight before they were put

on diets. The same is true of human beings. " Put people on crash

diets, and they'll gain back more weight than they lost, " Ernsberger

has said.

The literature on the health effects of dieting and diet drugs

suggests that, as Gaesser pointed out, what most studies that find a

correlation between higher mortality and higher body mass really

demonstrate is a correlation between higher mortality and higher rates

of dieting and diet-drug use. Under these circumstances, advising fat

people to diet for the sake of their health is tantamount to

prescribing a drug that causes the disease it's supposed to cure.

What is it about fat that renders so many otherwise sensible Americans

more than a little bit crazy? The war on fat is based on many things:

the deeply neurotic relationship so many Americans have developed

toward food and their bodies, the identification of thinness with

social privilege and of fat with lower-class status, the financial

interests of the diet industry, and many other factors as well.

Ultimately, the fundamental forces driving our national obsession with

fat fall into two broad and interrelated categories: economic interest

and psychological motivation.

Obesity research in the United States is almost wholly funded by the

weight-loss industry. For all the government's apparent interest in

the fat " epidemic, " in recent years less than 1 percent of the federal

health research budget has gone toward obesity-related research. (For

example, in 1995, the National Institutes of Health spent $87 million

on obesity research out of a total budget of $11.3 billion.) And,

while it's virtually impossible to determine just how much the dieting

industry spends on such research, it is safe to say that it is many,

many times more. Indeed, many of the nation's most prominent obesity

researchers have direct financial stakes in companies that produce

weight-loss products. (When they are quoted in the media, such

researchers routinely fail to disclose their financial interests in

the matters on which they are commenting, in part because journalists

fail to ask them about potential conflicts.) And the contamination of

supposedly disinterested research goes well beyond the effects of such

direct financial interests. As Fraser points out in her book

Losing It: False Hopes and Fat Profits in the Diet Industry, " Diet and

pharmaceutical companies influence every step along the way of the

scientific process. They pay for the ads that keep obesity journals

publishing. They underwrite medical conferences, flying physicians

around the country expense-free and paying them large lecture fees to

attend. "

This situation creates a kind of structural distortion, analogous to

that which takes place in the stock market when analysts employed by

brokerage houses make recommendations to clients intended to inflate

the price of stock issued by companies that in return send their

business to the brokerages' investment-banking divisions. In such

circumstances, it's easy for all the players to convince themselves of

the purity of their motives. " It isn't diabolical, " eating-disorders

specialist Garner told Fraser. " Some people are very committed

to the belief that weight loss is a national health problem. It's just

that, if their livelihood is based in large part on the diet industry,

they can't be impartial. " Fraser writes that when she asked one

obesity researcher, who has criticized dieting as ineffective and

psychologically damaging, to comment on the policies of one commercial

weight-loss program, he replied, " What can I say? I'm a consultant for

them. "

What makes this structural distortion particularly insidious is that,

just as Americans wanted desperately to believe that the IPO bubble of

the '90s would never burst--and were therefore eager to accept

whatever the experts at Merrill Lynch and on The Wall Street Journal's

editorial page had to say about the " New Economy " --they also long to

believe that medical experts can solve the problem of their expanding

waistlines. The reason for this can be summed up in six words:

Americans think being fat is disgusting. That psychological truth

creates an enormous incentive to give our disgust a respectable

motivation. In other words, being fat must be terrible for one's

health, because if it isn't that means our increasing hatred of fat

represents a social, psychological, and moral problem rather than a

medical one.

The convergence of economic interest and psychological motivation

helps ensure that, for example, when former Surgeon General Koop

raised more than $2 million from diet-industry heavyweights Weight

Watchers and Craig for his Shape Up America foundation, he

remained largely immune to the charge that he was exploiting a

national neurosis for financial gain. After all, " everyone knows " that

fat is a major health risk, so why should we find it disturbing to

discover such close links between prominent former public health

officials and the dietary-pharmaceutical complex?

None of this is to suggest that the war against fat is the product of

some sort of conscious conspiracy on the part of those whose interests

are served by it. The relationship between economic motives, cultural

trends, social psychology, and the many other factors that fuel the

war on fat is surely far more complex than that. But it does suggest

that the conventional wisdom about fat in the United States is based

on factors that have very little to do with a disinterested evaluation

of the medical and scientific evidence, and therefore this

conventional wisdom needs to be taken for what it is: a pervasive

social myth rather than a rational judgment about risk.

So what should we do about fat in the United States? The short answer

is: nothing. The longer answer is that we should refocus our attention

from people's waistlines to their levels of activity. Americans have

become far too sedentary. It sometimes seems that much of American

life is organized around the principle that people should be able to

go through an average day without ever actually using their legs. We

do eat too much junk that isn't good for us because it's quick and

cheap and easier than taking the time and money to prepare food that

is both nutritious and satisfies our cravings.

A rational public health policy would emphasize that the keys to good

health (at least those that anyone can do anything about--genetic

factors remain far more important than anything else) are, in roughly

descending order of importance: not to smoke, not to be an alcoholic

or drug addict, not to be sedentary, and not to eat a diet packed with

junk food. It's true that a more active populace that ate a healthier

diet would be somewhat thinner, as would a nation that wasn't dieting

obsessively. Even so, there is no reason why there shouldn't be

millions of healthy, happy fat people in the United States, as there

no doubt would be in a culture that maintained a rational attitude

toward the fact that people will always come in all shapes and sizes,

whether they live healthy lives or not. In the end, nothing could be

easier than to win the war on fat: All we need to do is stop fighting

it.

PAUL CAMPOS is a professor of law at the University of

Colorado-Boulder and author of the forthcoming book The Last American

Diet.

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