Guest guest Posted November 21, 2005 Report Share Posted November 21, 2005 Just watched the second airing of that program on the Little Ice Age. 2 hour long show with loads of information, so I'll just touch on the highlights with some commentary. The Little Ice Age started around 1350 and lasted to about 1850. Prior to 1350 there had been about a 500 year period where the temperatures were about 4 to 7 degrees warmer than they are today. This allowed for much of the expansion humanity saw after the Dark Ages. The change to cold weather was rapid, about a decade or two. The temperatures fell to about 4 to 5 degrees cooler than they are today. The rapid change made growing cereal grain crops, the main crops in Europe, very difficult. The cold brought with it lots of rain, which killed many of the crops and ruined formerly good land. As a result, starvation set in. Many died from starvation but more were weakened and these died of disease. This weakened state contributed to the virulence of the Black Death which struck during this time. The coldest years were between 1645 and 1715. This period coincided with the Monder Minimum. Astronomy was just beginning then and observations of the Sun were being made. During this coldest period, few or no sunspots were recorded. The fewer sunspots, the less energy the sun is putting out. After 1715, the sunspots began coming back and the temperatures also rose. In 1815, Mount Tambora, a volcano in Indonesia that was believed to be extinct exploded. This was on the order of 100 times Mount St. Helens. So much ash and sulphur was put into the atmosphere that in Poland, brown snow fell in the summer while at the same time it was snowing red in Italy. The next year summer didn't come and places saw snow in June and July. How did people react to this? Well, they died a lot of them. The Black Death certainly didn't help matter though. Some people did adapt to the changes. The English and Dutch started this off by switching from mostly grains to adding turnips and clover to their crops. These were sold to herders who fed it to their animals. Much of Europe copied this winning pattern. Explorers from the New World also brought back potatoes. However, few people would eat them and they were even called the Devil's Root, or something like that. However, during the 30 Year's War they became popular because the soldiers would burn standing crops like grain but potatoes either went unnoticed or were too much trouble to destroy because they were underground. They were also less affected climate changes and cold. Most nations began growing them in abundance. The French peasants, however, wouldn't have anything to do with potatoes no matter how much the kings and nobles pleaded with them. They clung to their traditional grains and as a result over a 400 year period they had at least 110 significant famines. One of these famines helped set off the French Revolution. I found this amusing because the mobs were demanding the government feed them when the government had for decades been trying to get them to grow potatoes which would have put an end to the famines. (The Irish potato famine came about because the Irish had been growing 6 types of potato, but had switched to only 1 variety. This variety was easy to grow but was also the lowest quality potato and weakest to disease. Sure enough disease hit and wiped out the whole crop.) For the most part humanity was able to adapt. I think is something comparable to the Little Ice Age happened again, we could survive it, though it would mean hard choices. For the US I would see that as meaning deciding is we closed our borders and supply ourselves first before shipping the remainder overseas, or do we leave the borders in and allow millions to flood in and tax our resources? I fear we would do the latter and that chaos would cause us to fall. Anyway, there is a lot of debate about what caused the Little Ice Age, and the earlier warm period for that matter. The explanation I think most probably is that the output of the Sun changed. The output of the sun dropped by about half a percent over this period. Another theory is that there was a lot of volcanism during this time, but I have my doubts about that one. The third big theory was about ocean currents changing which I also had problems with, though it does have a lot of validity to it. My problem with the Volcano theory is this. They said the eruptions, massive ones about 5 per century, would dump a lot of water vapor, carbon dioxide and sulphur into the atmosphere. The sulphur would get high in the atmosphere and combine with water to form sulphuric acid clouds that would reflect sunlight. My problem with this theory is simple. While sulphur could do as mentioned, it doesn't last long. The clouds would last a year or two at most. Recall what was said about Tambora. The sulphur rained down fairly quickly and the effect of even that great of an eruption didn't last over 2 years. There is also the matter of the water vapor and carbon dioxide. Both of these are believed to be greenhouse gasses. Mount Tambora should have put out as much CO 2 as several recent decades of our industrial society. Several modern and much smaller eruptions have achieved this so surely Tambora would have at least matched that. However, even with all that CO 2 in the air, temperatures remained cold for another 35 years. So, if all these great eruptions had been going on why then, if CO 2 is such a powerful greenhouse gas hadn't the Little Ice Age been dispelled instead of persisting? The warm water current has a hole in it because they said that it could have affected the climate then but it wouldn't now even if it shut down completely. So which is it? They did admit at least that they aren't sure which way we are headed in the future. Some say global warming will reach a point and then trigger another Little Ice Age. Others say we'll see rising sea levels and stronger storms. I'm not sure what either of that will happen. At the beginning of the program they stated that in the Medieval Warm Period that is was warm enough in most of England to grow grapes for wine. Today England is 300 miles north of the wine growing limit. They also said that Greenland at the time was lush and fertile and that the Vikings would take their animals into the mountains for summer foraging. If the earth was that much warmer yet sea levels were about the same as today, it stands to reason that flooding won't be a big issue if temperatures go that high again and all that ice melts back into the sea just like it did then. I also think that any warming would be most likely caused by solar output and there is nothing we can do about that. We can still work on cleaning up our act of course, but if a solar output change of only half a percent can have such drastic affects on the climate, and I have read that it has been increasing in output following the standard 11 and 22 year cycles at least, then we could take out all the CO 2 of the last 300 years and it wouldn't make a bit of difference. Better that we make incremental steps in cleaning up our CO 2 but put more money into other energy and food supplies. PS One last thing I found interesting. During the Little Ice Age, the Glaciers of the Alps advanced at alarming rates and to extents that had not been seen in thousands of years. They moved so fast and far that they scoured valleys and destroyed ancient villages. Priests were called in because the locals thought it was the work of the Devil. The priests blessed and performed exorcisms on some of the glaciers. Local records show that most of those glaciers did retreat for a while. Eventually though they did come back. 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Guest guest Posted November 21, 2005 Report Share Posted November 21, 2005 Didn't get to see it (watched The Interpreter-- pretty good movie BTW, but I'm not the movie critic type), my husband does not like History too much! but I'm sure I'll catch it another time! > > Just watched the second airing of that program on the Little Ice Age. 2 hour > long show with loads of information, so I'll just touch on the highlights > with some commentary. > > The Little Ice Age started around 1350 and lasted to about 1850. > > Prior to 1350 there had been about a 500 year period where the temperatures > were about 4 to 7 degrees warmer than they are today. This allowed for much of > the expansion humanity saw after the Dark Ages. > > The change to cold weather was rapid, about a decade or two. The > temperatures fell to about 4 to 5 degrees cooler than they are today. > > The rapid change made growing cereal grain crops, the main crops in Europe, > very difficult. The cold brought with it lots of rain, which killed many of > the crops and ruined formerly good land. As a result, starvation set in. Many > died from starvation but more were weakened and these died of disease. This > weakened state contributed to the virulence of the Black Death which struck > during this time. > > The coldest years were between 1645 and 1715. This period coincided with the > Monder Minimum. Astronomy was just beginning then and observations of the > Sun were being made. During this coldest period, few or no sunspots were > recorded. The fewer sunspots, the less energy the sun is putting out. After 1715, > the sunspots began coming back and the temperatures also rose. > > In 1815, Mount Tambora, a volcano in Indonesia that was believed to be > extinct exploded. This was on the order of 100 times Mount St. Helens. So much ash > and sulphur was put into the atmosphere that in Poland, brown snow fell in > the summer while at the same time it was snowing red in Italy. The next year > summer didn't come and places saw snow in June and July. > > How did people react to this? Well, they died a lot of them. The Black Death > certainly didn't help matter though. > > Some people did adapt to the changes. The English and Dutch started this off > by switching from mostly grains to adding turnips and clover to their crops. > These were sold to herders who fed it to their animals. Much of Europe copied > this winning pattern. Explorers from the New World also brought back > potatoes. However, few people would eat them and they were even called the Devil's > Root, or something like that. However, during the 30 Year's War they became > popular because the soldiers would burn standing crops like grain but potatoes > either went unnoticed or were too much trouble to destroy because they were > underground. They were also less affected climate changes and cold. Most > nations began growing them in abundance. The French peasants, however, wouldn't > have anything to do with potatoes no matter how much the kings and nobles > pleaded with them. They clung to their traditional grains and as a result over a > 400 year period they had at least 110 significant famines. One of these > famines helped set off the French Revolution. I found this amusing because the mobs > were demanding the government feed them when the government had for decades > been trying to get them to grow potatoes which would have put an end to the > famines. (The Irish potato famine came about because the Irish had been > growing 6 types of potato, but had switched to only 1 variety. This variety was > easy to grow but was also the lowest quality potato and weakest to disease. Sure > enough disease hit and wiped out the whole crop.) > > For the most part humanity was able to adapt. I think is something > comparable to the Little Ice Age happened again, we could survive it, though it would > mean hard choices. For the US I would see that as meaning deciding is we > closed our borders and supply ourselves first before shipping the remainder > overseas, or do we leave the borders in and allow millions to flood in and tax our > resources? I fear we would do the latter and that chaos would cause us to > fall. > > Anyway, there is a lot of debate about what caused the Little Ice Age, and > the earlier warm period for that matter. The explanation I think most probably > is that the output of the Sun changed. The output of the sun dropped by about > half a percent over this period. Another theory is that there was a lot of > volcanism during this time, but I have my doubts about that one. The third big > theory was about ocean currents changing which I also had problems with, > though it does have a lot of validity to it. > > My problem with the Volcano theory is this. They said the eruptions, massive > ones about 5 per century, would dump a lot of water vapor, carbon dioxide > and sulphur into the atmosphere. The sulphur would get high in the atmosphere > and combine with water to form sulphuric acid clouds that would reflect > sunlight. My problem with this theory is simple. While sulphur could do as > mentioned, it doesn't last long. The clouds would last a year or two at most. Recall > what was said about Tambora. The sulphur rained down fairly quickly and the > effect of even that great of an eruption didn't last over 2 years. There is > also the matter of the water vapor and carbon dioxide. Both of these are > believed to be greenhouse gasses. Mount Tambora should have put out as much CO 2 as > several recent decades of our industrial society. Several modern and much > smaller eruptions have achieved this so surely Tambora would have at least > matched that. However, even with all that CO 2 in the air, temperatures remained > cold for another 35 years. So, if all these great eruptions had been going on > why then, if CO 2 is such a powerful greenhouse gas hadn't the Little Ice Age > been dispelled instead of persisting? > > The warm water current has a hole in it because they said that it could have > affected the climate then but it wouldn't now even if it shut down > completely. So which is it? > > They did admit at least that they aren't sure which way we are headed in the > future. Some say global warming will reach a point and then trigger another > Little Ice Age. Others say we'll see rising sea levels and stronger storms. > I'm not sure what either of that will happen. At the beginning of the program > they stated that in the Medieval Warm Period that is was warm enough in most > of England to grow grapes for wine. Today England is 300 miles north of the > wine growing limit. They also said that Greenland at the time was lush and > fertile and that the Vikings would take their animals into the mountains for > summer foraging. If the earth was that much warmer yet sea levels were about the > same as today, it stands to reason that flooding won't be a big issue if > temperatures go that high again and all that ice melts back into the sea just > like it did then. > > I also think that any warming would be most likely caused by solar output > and there is nothing we can do about that. We can still work on cleaning up our > act of course, but if a solar output change of only half a percent can have > such drastic affects on the climate, and I have read that it has been > increasing in output following the standard 11 and 22 year cycles at least, then we > could take out all the CO 2 of the last 300 years and it wouldn't make a bit > of difference. Better that we make incremental steps in cleaning up our CO 2 > but put more money into other energy and food supplies. > > > > PS One last thing I found interesting. During the Little Ice Age, the > Glaciers of the Alps advanced at alarming rates and to extents that had not been > seen in thousands of years. They moved so fast and far that they scoured valleys > and destroyed ancient villages. Priests were called in because the locals > thought it was the work of the Devil. The priests blessed and performed > exorcisms on some of the glaciers. Local records show that most of those glaciers > did retreat for a while. Eventually though they did come back. > Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest guest Posted November 24, 2005 Report Share Posted November 24, 2005 > Prior to 1350 there had been about a 500 year period where the temperatures > were about 4 to 7 degrees warmer than they are today. Aha! This proves that Bush has a time machine! He went back and caused global warming until 1350! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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