Re: Paris-Area Riots Spread to 20 Towns: guerilla warfare

[Guest guest]

In a message dated 11/5/2005 12:58:41 PM Eastern Standard Time, ururu@... writes:

This mail I liked, : it is informative, it explains and it has a theory that is explained by you. It doesn't generalize in an offensive way and it is well written.

My English is not good enough how to explain that this mail 'feels' good when I read it and your other mail - which I reacted on/to (?) - did not.

Thank you,

Lida

Thanks Lida. I think I know what you mean. What seems to have made folks angry about the other post was meant as an attempt at humor. Obviously it failed.

[Guest guest]

In a message dated 11/5/2005 12:58:41 PM Eastern Standard Time, ururu@... writes:

This mail I liked, : it is informative, it explains and it has a theory that is explained by you. It doesn't generalize in an offensive way and it is well written.

My English is not good enough how to explain that this mail 'feels' good when I read it and your other mail - which I reacted on/to (?) - did not.

Thank you,

Lida

Thanks Lida. I think I know what you mean. What seems to have made folks angry about the other post was meant as an attempt at humor. Obviously it failed.

[Guest guest]

In a message dated 11/5/2005 4:16:34 PM Eastern Standard Time, rainbow@... writes:

: "What seems to have made folks angry about the other post......."

Sad and disappointed maybe, but certainly not 'angry'. I know just what a positive attitude you really have......

We all have bad days and that was one for me. Right now I'm enjoying one of the pleasures of fall in the South. The hot forced-air heating is coming on and that brings with it nosebleeds. These aren't dangerous but it is disgusting and uncomfortable to blow more blood and other stuff when you blow your nose. That and the discomfort and itchiness of superdry inner nose. Should only last a little longer though I think.

[Guest guest]

This mail I liked, : it is informative, it explains and it has a theory that is explained by you. It doesn't generalize in an offensive way and it is well written.

My English is not good enough how to explain that this mail 'feels' good when I read it and your other mail - which I reacted on/to (?) - did not.

Thank you,

Lida

post was:

In a message dated 11/5/2005 4:57:28 AM Eastern Standard Time, inglori@... writes:

I don't know the reason for their anger and have not followed the news. Have they stated a reason themselves?Inger

The riots probably began ater two muslim teens were electrocuted while running from police. Some French police came to a soccer game and at least three muslims teenage boys ran away. They climbed over a marked and barbed wired fence into a power relay station and hid there from the police. At some point, two of them touched a transformer or something and got electrocuted, while the third survived with serious burns. That survivor said they knew they were in a dangerous place and hid there thinking the police would overlook them. The police had not been looking for these three boys, though I have not heard why they were at the game. My guess is they were just there for routine security. It is not uncommon for a few police officers to be a between school games around here and noone gets upset about that. Given how often riots get started at sporting events it is only a sensible move.

There is a bit of a gap that I haven't been able to fill here. At some point after this, there was a disturbance around a mosque. It was significant enough that the police were using tear gas to break it up. One canister is supposed to have entered the mosque and detonated. It was also claimed that this happened during prayers. That as much as anything is what triggered all the rioting.

Now, given what has been seen in other campaigns from the Soviets in Afganistan, Lebannon, the US in Afganistan and Iraq, not to mention Kuwait in 1991, I smell a set up by the guerillas. They know that muslims are sensitive about the mosques, which makes sense, but those guerillas abuse this by making the mosques targets. In the campaigns just mentioned, the guerillas would use mosques to store weapons and ammunition, headquarters units and they would even fight from them. They would do this hoping the enemy would attack the mosque, knowing that the media would only say that a mosque was attacked and would not often report the rest of the story. This would have the result of inflaming the muslims who saw the story. Therefore, it is possible that the inititial rioters or its aggitators were using that mosque in the same way.

These tactics are straight out of Moa Tse-Tung, Ho Chi Minh and Che Queverra. All three called for using important sites and forcing the enemy to attack them as a means of inflaming the population and making the enemy look bad in international media. It hasn't come to it yet, but those three also recommended attacking from within civilian areas in hopes of drawing heavy enemy firepower which would kill civilians and make the enemy look terrible. Ho's troops did this a lot in Vietnam to US troops.

As for them being born in France, some are but many aren't. The stories say the riots are lead by first and second generation people. They also say that even though these people have come to Europe, they only want money either from jobs or from the generous weflare benefits. However, they do not want to give up their cultural identity and actually become French (or English, Dutch, German or Swedish). Because of this, they are limiting themselves. If they don't learn the language, they have a hard time getting jobs. That leaves the welfare system, which pays them but leaves them with time on their hands for other things, like crime. Some of them took that route because crime was very high in these places. We have the same situation in the US where the welfare housing has high crime, but it is shaping up because of reforms.

Lastly, I think what we are seeing here is a guerilla campaign organized by Al Quida or its immitators. This is not just speculation but is something that has been suspected and feared by European intelligence agencies for decades. These agencies detected what was going on but the politicians didn't want to rock the boat and crack down on it while it was in its infancy. Now it has matured and there is a problem.

Those three fellows I mentioned above, they also agreed on another thing. It only takes around 10% of a population to support the guerillas for them to wage a campaign. Polls showed that 10% of the people in those areas strongly supported Al Quida and its goals. The rest of the population is sufficiently cowed to allow them to operate and carry on these riots.

However, I don't think they have much chance of long term success. The majority of the country is appalled by this, as are probably the majority of muslims in those communities. They lack any outside source of supply or other support, meaning they have to work with what they have. Since many of them are dependant on the French state for everything, if the state cut benefits, power and water to the rioting locations, it would have no choice but to end. They also lack international political support from anywhere that matters. Iran may approve but is also in no position to assist the rioters. Most of the rest of the world is appalled, so they will not be getting polticial support from the outside.

The only hope that they have is that the politicians will weaken and give in to them. Guerilla warfare is not conventional warfare. It is aimed not so much at the troops, or in this case the police, but the politicians. The aim of the guerilla is to embarass the politicians and make it look like they are ineffectual, which will cause them to scramble to protect their phoney-baloney jobs by giving in just to make it stop, the it in this case being the citizenry's calls for the politicians to step down. Almost since this started there were calls from the politicians to back off and let them be. That would be a victory for those behind the riots and is what they want to happen. However, if the French back down now, it will be next to impossible to police those areas let alone reform them. The situation will only be made worse.

The only thing they can do is stay the course, play hardball without endangering civilians directly and hope the politicians can outlast the rioters.

[Guest guest]

: "What seems to have made folks angry about the other post......."Sad and disappointed maybe, but certainly not 'angry'. I know just what a positive attitude you really have......   Rainbow

[Guest guest]

: "What seems to have made folks angry about the other post......."Sad and disappointed maybe, but certainly not 'angry'. I know just what a positive attitude you really have......   Rainbow

[Guest guest]

I liked it too. Very well written.

Let me just point out that the ever popular tactic of baiting the enemy to attack, in order to make them seem like the bad guy, is used by ALL sides, including Western countries.

It is for this very reason that I refuse to have an emotional knee-jerk reaction and jump to conclusions before I know the real background story of ANY event, no matter how obvious it may seem who is the guilty party. I just hate to play into the hands of vested interests and hand them my brain on a plate, of I can help it.

Inger

Re: Paris-Area Riots Spread to 20 Towns: guerilla warfare

This mail I liked, : it is informative, it explains and it has a theory that is explained by you. It doesn't generalize in an offensive way and it is well written.

My English is not good enough how to explain that this mail 'feels' good when I read it and your other mail - which I reacted on/to (?) - did not.

Thank you,

Lida

post was:

In a message dated 11/5/2005 4:57:28 AM Eastern Standard Time, inglori@... writes:

I don't know the reason for their anger and have not followed the news. Have they stated a reason themselves?Inger

The riots probably began ater two muslim teens were electrocuted while running from police. Some French police came to a soccer game and at least three muslims teenage boys ran away. They climbed over a marked and barbed wired fence into a power relay station and hid there from the police. At some point, two of them touched a transformer or something and got electrocuted, while the third survived with serious burns. That survivor said they knew they were in a dangerous place and hid there thinking the police would overlook them. The police had not been looking for these three boys, though I have not heard why they were at the game. My guess is they were just there for routine security. It is not uncommon for a few police officers to be a between school games around here and noone gets upset about that. Given how often riots get started at sporting events it is only a sensible move.

There is a bit of a gap that I haven't been able to fill here. At some point after this, there was a disturbance around a mosque. It was significant enough that the police were using tear gas to break it up. One canister is supposed to have entered the mosque and detonated. It was also claimed that this happened during prayers. That as much as anything is what triggered all the rioting.

Now, given what has been seen in other campaigns from the Soviets in Afganistan, Lebannon, the US in Afganistan and Iraq, not to mention Kuwait in 1991, I smell a set up by the guerillas. They know that muslims are sensitive about the mosques, which makes sense, but those guerillas abuse this by making the mosques targets. In the campaigns just mentioned, the guerillas would use mosques to store weapons and ammunition, headquarters units and they would even fight from them. They would do this hoping the enemy would attack the mosque, knowing that the media would only say that a mosque was attacked and would not often report the rest of the story. This would have the result of inflaming the muslims who saw the story. Therefore, it is possible that the inititial rioters or its aggitators were using that mosque in the same way.

These tactics are straight out of Moa Tse-Tung, Ho Chi Minh and Che Queverra. All three called for using important sites and forcing the enemy to attack them as a means of inflaming the population and making the enemy look bad in international media. It hasn't come to it yet, but those three also recommended attacking from within civilian areas in hopes of drawing heavy enemy firepower which would kill civilians and make the enemy look terrible. Ho's troops did this a lot in Vietnam to US troops.

As for them being born in France, some are but many aren't. The stories say the riots are lead by first and second generation people. They also say that even though these people have come to Europe, they only want money either from jobs or from the generous weflare benefits. However, they do not want to give up their cultural identity and actually become French (or English, Dutch, German or Swedish). Because of this, they are limiting themselves. If they don't learn the language, they have a hard time getting jobs. That leaves the welfare system, which pays them but leaves them with time on their hands for other things, like crime. Some of them took that route because crime was very high in these places. We have the same situation in the US where the welfare housing has high crime, but it is shaping up because of reforms.

Lastly, I think what we are seeing here is a guerilla campaign organized by Al Quida or its immitators. This is not just speculation but is something that has been suspected and feared by European intelligence agencies for decades. These agencies detected what was going on but the politicians didn't want to rock the boat and crack down on it while it was in its infancy. Now it has matured and there is a problem.

Those three fellows I mentioned above, they also agreed on another thing. It only takes around 10% of a population to support the guerillas for them to wage a campaign. Polls showed that 10% of the people in those areas strongly supported Al Quida and its goals. The rest of the population is sufficiently cowed to allow them to operate and carry on these riots.

However, I don't think they have much chance of long term success. The majority of the country is appalled by this, as are probably the majority of muslims in those communities. They lack any outside source of supply or other support, meaning they have to work with what they have. Since many of them are dependant on the French state for everything, if the state cut benefits, power and water to the rioting locations, it would have no choice but to end. They also lack international political support from anywhere that matters. Iran may approve but is also in no position to assist the rioters. Most of the rest of the world is appalled, so they will not be getting polticial support from the outside.

The only hope that they have is that the politicians will weaken and give in to them. Guerilla warfare is not conventional warfare. It is aimed not so much at the troops, or in this case the police, but the politicians. The aim of the guerilla is to embarass the politicians and make it look like they are ineffectual, which will cause them to scramble to protect their phoney-baloney jobs by giving in just to make it stop, the it in this case being the citizenry's calls for the politicians to step down. Almost since this started there were calls from the politicians to back off and let them be. That would be a victory for those behind the riots and is what they want to happen. However, if the French back down now, it will be next to impossible to police those areas let alone reform them. The situation will only be made worse.

The only thing they can do is stay the course, play hardball without endangering civilians directly and hope the politicians can outlast the rioters.