2004-05 autism figures

[Guest guest]

Yesterday's Schafer Autism Report has a table showing that among 3-to-5-

year-olds, in every state listed, the numbers are up in 2004-05

compared to 2003-04. Does anybody know where these numbers come from,

what they represent (diagnoses? program enrollments?), any other

interpretive information?

Thanks.

[Guest guest]

Never mind! I found them. (TAAP.info)

[Guest guest]

The figures come from Ray Gallup, who gets them directly from the states. Here's what he has to say about the numbers so far:

Some autism figures for 2004/2005 that have come infrom various states by email to me (after a request).These will be the figures submitted to the US Dept of Educationfor 2004/2005 (end of December 2004) and will be online as of October 2005.In the process of trying to get other state information.

They represent the number of children entering the states' special education system with autism. I do not know off hand how the autism dx is defined. You can reach Ray at: truegrit@...

Lenny

From: EOHarm [mailto:EOHarm ] On Behalf Of lenscheeSent: Tuesday, May 10, 2005 12:17 PMEOHarm Subject: 2004-05 autism figures

Yesterday's Schafer Autism Report has a table showing that among 3-to-5-year-olds, in every state listed, the numbers are up in 2004-05 compared to 2003-04. Does anybody know where these numbers come from, what they represent (diagnoses? program enrollments?), any other interpretive information?Thanks.

[Guest guest]

I would like to know how many children, ages 3-5, live in the

states that Gallup has so far. Hard to guage prevalence without that

information.

Jerry Newport

Secretary, TAFA (Tucson Alliance for Autism)

> _____

>

> From: EOHarm [mailto:EOHarm ] On

Behalf Of

> lenschee

> Sent: Tuesday, May 10, 2005 12:17 PM

> EOHarm

> Subject: 2004-05 autism figures

>

>

> Yesterday's Schafer Autism Report has a table showing that among 3-

to-5-

> year-olds, in every state listed, the numbers are up in 2004-05

> compared to 2003-04. Does anybody know where these numbers come

from,

> what they represent (diagnoses? program enrollments?), any other

> interpretive information?

>

> Thanks.

>

>

>

>

> _____

>

>

[Guest guest]

The problem with the schools counting is that they count by classroom label - ie SLD, TMH, OHI, speech delay or mainstreamed. All these kids are missed in counts in most states, including Florida. Only the kids in actual "autism" classes get counted. Also because some states have no services other than school, parents do not bother to get their child a firm medical dx (or if they do they do not give it to the school) because it does not change what the school is doing for the child already. So I'd say the DOE is the least accurate agency to be counting. Unfortunately it is the only agency that exists in all of the states.

RE: 2004-05 autism figures

The figures come from Ray Gallup, who gets them directly from the states. Here's what he has to say about the numbers so far:

Some autism figures for 2004/2005 that have come infrom various states by email to me (after a request).These will be the figures submitted to the US Dept of Educationfor 2004/2005 (end of December 2004) and will be online as of October 2005.In the process of trying to get other state information.

They represent the number of children entering the states' special education system with autism. I do not know off hand how the autism dx is defined. You can reach Ray at: truegrit@...

Lenny

From: EOHarm [mailto:EOHarm ] On Behalf Of lenscheeSent: Tuesday, May 10, 2005 12:17 PMEOHarm Subject: 2004-05 autism figures

Yesterday's Schafer Autism Report has a table showing that among 3-to-5-year-olds, in every state listed, the numbers are up in 2004-05 compared to 2003-04. Does anybody know where these numbers come from, what they represent (diagnoses? program enrollments?), any other interpretive information?Thanks.

[Guest guest]

Gerald Newport wrote:

>

> I would like to know how many children, ages 3-5, live in the

> states that Gallup has so far. Hard to guage prevalence without that

> information.

The U.S. Office of Special Education publishes estimates of resident

population in that age group. You can see the figures for 2002 and

2003 here:

http://www.ideadata.org/tables27th%5Car_af3.htm

The 2004 figures for resident population and students served don't

seem to be up there yet. I don't know how Gallup got his numbers -- I

thought they came from OSEP's IDEA data.

The census bureau released age-grouped population estimates as of July

2004, which would correspond pretty well to the 2004-05 school year.

However, the age group there is " under 5, " not " 3-5, " so it's not so

helpful, but here it is:

http://www.census.gov/population/www/index.html

Anne

[Guest guest]

Thanks Holly,

for pointing this out. These numbers are not controlled for any variety of factors that could effect the "real" count. For figuring out prevalence rates they are far too fuzzy to be of any real value. What they can show are temporal trends within each state, that is, are the reported numbers going up or down over time with "ballpark" accuracy. The decimal percentages of change listed can suggest a false sense of precision. These reports should be considered mostly anecdotal. I should have noted so when I published it, and usually do.

-Lenny

From: EOHarm [mailto:EOHarm ] On Behalf Of Holly BortfeldSent: Tuesday, May 10, 2005 6:41 PMEOHarm Subject: Re: 2004-05 autism figures

The problem with the schools counting is that they count by classroom label - ie SLD, TMH, OHI, speech delay or mainstreamed. All these kids are missed in counts in most states, including Florida. Only the kids in actual "autism" classes get counted. Also because some states have no services other than school, parents do not bother to get their child a firm medical dx (or if they do they do not give it to the school) because it does not change what the school is doing for the child already. So I'd say the DOE is the least accurate agency to be counting. Unfortunately it is the only agency that exists in all of the states.

RE: 2004-05 autism figures

The figures come from Ray Gallup, who gets them directly from the states. Here's what he has to say about the numbers so far:

Some autism figures for 2004/2005 that have come infrom various states by email to me (after a request).These will be the figures submitted to the US Dept of Educationfor 2004/2005 (end of December 2004) and will be online as of October 2005.In the process of trying to get other state information.

They represent the number of children entering the states' special education system with autism. I do not know off hand how the autism dx is defined. You can reach Ray at: truegrit@...

Lenny

From: EOHarm [mailto:EOHarm ] On Behalf Of lenscheeSent: Tuesday, May 10, 2005 12:17 PMEOHarm Subject: 2004-05 autism figures

Yesterday's Schafer Autism Report has a table showing that among 3-to-5-year-olds, in every state listed, the numbers are up in 2004-05 compared to 2003-04. Does anybody know where these numbers come from, what they represent (diagnoses? program enrollments?), any other interpretive information?Thanks.

[Guest guest]

I meant my question being that stupid, not yours, and evidently I can't spell today either. VanFossen <jensewspa@...> wrote:

Get off me back, Holly I have had a bad week. ; )

Seriously though, at first after reading your post, I thought, maybe it really was that stupid of a question, but the more I thought about it, the more I was still convinced I wanted to elaborate and see if it makes a difference. It could be the mercury from the busted light bulb this week getting to me, but let me give it a shot...

PA has one of the tightest laws in the country regarding reporting and documentation for homeschoolers and I would imagine they have to at least regulate (and be reported to) for children attending private schools. I don't think most Amish homeschool nor attend public schools, but I do think many of them attend Amish schools which would be considered private. It would make it difficult to monitor if they don't get a SSN for their child at birth or as a child, but for those who do, the districts will most certainly check when children are of compulsory school age to make sure they are being educated and that it is being reported.

Now granted, the fact that CSA in PA is 8 years old unless they pass one of the crap laws that keeps being reintroduced to change it to age 6, would make it difficult to check on children who would be receiving services around that 3-6 mark which is typically when children are diagnosed. However, there are many parents (yourself included, I think) who homeschool (actually you would be considered cyberschool, wouldn't you?), but who receive some type of services from the state, whether it be TSS through the Medicaid program, or other therapies from ABA, speech, PT, to OT through the IU13. Surely there is some accountability in those numbers, and I was only bringing up the Amish as I would think they would be counted in the general population count unless they aren't counting everyone, including autistic teens and adults. I am just curious as to how they come up with the numbers, and if you have certain cells of groups like the Amish or Christian Scientists, etc, who don't

vaccinate and (assuming) have a lower or non-existent number of people with autism, would you get higher more accurate numbers by removing them from the numerical equations?

I hope this made some sense.Holly Bortfeld <maximom@...> wrote:

do they go to public schools?

RE: 2004-05 autism figures

The figures come from Ray Gallup, who gets them directly from the states. Here's what he has to say about the numbers so far:

Some autism figures for 2004/2005 that have come infrom various states by email to me (after a request).These will be the figures submitted to the US Dept of Educationfor 2004/2005 (end of December 2004) and will be online as of October 2005.In the process of trying to get other state information.

They represent the number of children entering the states' special education system with autism. I do not know off hand how the autism dx is defined. You can reach Ray at: truegrit@...

Lenny

From: EOHarm [mailto:EOHarm ] On Behalf Of lenscheeSent: Tuesday, May 10, 2005 12:17 PMEOHarm Subject: 2004-05 autism figures

Yesterday's Schafer Autism Report has a table showing that among 3-to-5-year-olds, in every state listed, the numbers are up in 2004-05 compared to 2003-04. Does anybody know where these numbers come from, what they represent (diagnoses? program enrollments?), any other interpretive information?Thanks.

Do you ? Small Business - Try our new resources site!

Stay connected, organized, and protected. Take the tour __________________________________________________

[Guest guest]

yep that made sense but I really don't think anyone has done an adequate count in any state because of the politics of diagnosis. At best, they are guestimates. Doctors are afraid to tell parents the "A" word. Parents don't want their kids labeled and stigmatized. Schools don't force accurate dx for many reasons (other health impaired is just garbage but that was my son's dx in school). States don't count in birth-3 or in developmental services well because not everyone gets services. (in florida more than 17,000 people were on the waiting list before they closed the waiting list. so they don't count the people who were turned away at all) The amish and other closed cultures don't want people poking and counting. It would seem that no one wants a real count for one reason or another. well, almost no one. (that would be us)

Maybe we'd have better luck doing the math of 1:166 born after 1981 in the US. (or does it have to be staggered as more vax are introduced?) what kind of number does that give us? Mark? Anyone?

RE: 2004-05 autism figures

What do the 22,000 Amish who don't have autism do to the numbers in PA?