US diabetes rate projected to soar 165%

November 23, 2001

NEW YORK, Oct 25 (Reuters Health) - The number of Americans diagnosed with

diabetes will soar 165% over the next 50 years, but getting more people to

change their diet and exercise habits could help put the brakes on the boom,

US researchers say.

According to Dr. P. Boyle from the Centers for Disease Control and

Prevention (CDC) and colleagues, 29 million Americans will be diagnosed with

diabetes in 2050, compared with about 11 million today.

Adults aged 75 and over, who account for a growing segment of the

population, will comprise the bulk of new cases. Among ethnic groups, black

men will see rates of diabetes climb 363% and black women will see a 217%

increase in rates of the disease. Both white men and women will also see

rates of diabetes more than double during this period, according to the

report.

" Our projection of diabetes burden in the US indicate that the situation may

be more alarming than previously believed, " Boyle and co-authors write in

the November issue of Diabetes Care.

Their study of the growing rates of the chronic disease points a finger at

population growth, poor health habits and changing demographic trends.

Blacks, who have higher rates of diabetes than whites, will represent

roughly 15% of the US population in 50 years compared with about 13% today,

for instance. The number of white Americans is expected to decline to 75% of

the population from more than 82% over the same period, according to data

from the US Census Bureau.

The researchers note that the report may underestimate future rates of

diabetes. For one, many cases go undiagnosed. It is estimated that as many

as one third of those with diabetes are not diagnosed. Additionally, the

study did not include projections for Hispanics, a group with increasing

rates of the disease.

While the projections portend a future in which many Americans will suffer

from diabetes and its related medical complications such as heart disease

and kidney failure, they are not set in stone, Boyle noted.

" The good news is, we also have enormous amounts of recent data that show us

how to help prevent the onset of diabetes and its complications through

lifestyle changes, " he said in a prepared statement. " Our study strongly

supports the need for people who are at risk for diabetes to make these

changes, such as developing better eating habits and maintaining a regular

exercise program.

SOURCE: Diabetes Care 2001;24:1936-1940.

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