Re: Work Risks In Iraq

[Guest guest]

In a message dated 1/24/2004 8:40:48 AM Central Standard Time,

frasercummings@... writes:

Guys, Regards the issue of Work Risks in Iraq, Firstly, we all need to keep a

very open mind. I personally, have had a lot of experience in the Middle

East, so I feel that am qualified enough to put in my tuppence ......

I don't know about a " tuppence " but this was a well spoken and supported

commentary. Good work Fraser.

And to add my " two cents worth. " France, Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan (Soviet

involvement) and to an extent Angola, were all " engagements by proxy " Prior

to D-day The Free French fought the Nazi's by proxy for, and supported by

Allied forces. In Vietnam, the Viet Mhin fought by proxy for, and were supported

by the Chinese or Soviets, Same is true with the Mujahedin fighting the Soviets

with American support in the 1980's(but that one started in 1839 with the

Brits and the Russians).

You simply cannot compare the situation today in Iraq to Vietnam. Iraq today

would be more like the Brits in India, In Saudi, or in Kuwait at the turn of

the century. The exception is that this is not an example of colonial

expansionism but one of Regime elimination. There simply is no

antagonistic/projectable/nationalistic " proxy " support involved in Iraq. My

question, best directed

to Fraser, is with the historical dissent between Sunni and Shi'a, Will either

segment allow the other to govern them?

[Guest guest]

Guys, Regards the issue of Work Risks in Iraq, Firstly, we all need to keep a

very open mind. I personally, have had a lot of experience in the Middle East,

so I feel that am qualified enough to put in my tuppence worth to the list. I

hope I don’t bore you all and I don’t offend to many off, you, I always endeavor

to be analytical and objective. But at the end of the day, it’s just a

viewpoint.

Firstly, as we all know, the first causality of any war is the truth. Secondly,

One can’t compare one war in the 60s and early 70s, which was based on a fear of

communism, to the current situation in the Middle East. The current theatre of

operation in Iraq is a totally different Kettle of fish and far more complicated

than Political Ideology, i.e. Capitalism vs. Communism.

One of the main issues with the current situation is that it’s a religious based

issue, with some Political issues on the sideline. Previous wars in the last

20th Century was in most cases based on Politics or Powers of Aggression.

Iraq has been for many years a Democratic country even when Saddam Hussein was

in Power; the countries Political stance was and is based on Democracy. The

type of Politics and the only political power that was in power in Iraq was the

Bath Party. Who are still in Power in Syria. But that is another debate for

another day.

By its constitution, Iraq has a democratic structure, where there are parliament

elections. In relation to all the other countries surrounding Iraq, even during

Saddam’s reign, Iraq was a moderate Islamic country, which in principle, was

based on Democracy. But only in principle.

But firstly, one must look at the whole picture to gain just a small insight

into the current situation that has developed in Iraq. I will introduce to the

List, some facts, and figures to give the list an idea how the country is made

up; the writing in Italics is from a previous source and is not from my own

hand.

Shi'i Islam

14,000,000

56%

Sunni Islam

9,200,000

37%

Nestorians

750,000

3%

Chaldean Catholics

420,000

1.7%

Syrian Catholics

100,000

0.4%

Armenian Orthodox

20,000

0.08%

Other Christians

10,000

0.04%

Yazidis

500,000

2%

Mandeans

30,000

0.12%

Baha'i

3,000

0.01%

ETHNIC GROUPS

Arabs

18,000,000

71%

Kurds

6,000,000

24%

Assyrians

1,300,000

5%

There are other religious groups in Iraq, where Christians of various sects make

up about 3%. There are also about 2,500 Jews living in Baghdad.

Firstly, The Country of Iraq is divided into two sections. The type of people

that live in the country, secondly the different types of ethnic groups.

The two groups are the Arabs; the Second group is the Kurds. The next divisions

in the country are that of the Sunni and Shi’is, These are two different

religious groups, which are different forms of Islam. For example Catholic and

Protestant.

The Shi'is constitute the clear majority in the south; this was the group that

revolted against Saddam after the first Gulf War but due to lack of support from

the West, it failed, the west believing that Saddam’s power base would collapse

from within.

The second Gulf War came and went. There has been the down throw of Saddam and

the removal of the Bath Part. But what has remained is a country who has been

suppressed in voice, stripped of any political expression, and brought under

political suppression of one man since. 1979 was the year when Saddam Hussein

cam to power.

Until recent months, the People of Iraq have not been able to express their

views that we as free nations take for granted. One problem that faces Iraq is

that a Muslim country finds it hard to segregate between religion and Politics,

this is due to the fact that both are so intertwined within each other. The

second is we, as Westerns do not often take this fact into account. We fail to

realize the importance of religion as a political context. It must be taken

into account the marriage of politics and religion as well as the different

factions that all live in Iraq. If a power sharing government is to be

successful. We can’t just impose our system of politics on a country that has

been suppressed for 25 years and are only now finding their freedom. This will

take time and lots of debate and discussion between the different groups that

live in Iraq.

The UK and the US are both Multi national countries that live in a democratic

society, each of us are free to speak our mind and are free to choose who is in

power when it comes to an election. Iraq is only now being given this

opportunity. Iraq is also going through a transitory period and with any

change, come insecurity unrest and upheaval. This is to be expected. Our Goal

should be to help construct a stable Iraq, which will evolve and will be a

showcase to the surrounding Dictatorships that surround Iraq. We as Medics

should aim to be free from political or religious bigotry, but we are all

individual and we have a mind and we in the West are free to express that view.

Remember for 25 years, the People of Iraq were robbed of this basic human right,

the freedom of Choice.

So getting back to the First Causality of War is the Truth, I agree with what

Josh Horn has written, he’s the man on the scene, I would be very hesitant to

believe what is in the press, First hand is better than second hand rumors.

Printing up lists of causalities which will have no doubt been gathered from the

Internet or sent as a forward to someone’s mail will not aid or contribute to

anything or anyone, all this does is fan the flames of discontent and fear.

There will always be causalities, in a time of war and there is always a price

to pay for freedom, did WW II not teach us that important lesson.

There will always be individuals who do not agree with the current situation in

the country. There are many different Muslim Extremist Groups who are taking

this opportunity to unleash as much havoc on the west from inside Iraq.

We must remember that these people have no respect for human life, we all know

what they can unleash, be it Christian or Muslim, Jew or Hindu etc, they are

blinded by their belief and hatred. They will also have support from the

remaining groups that were loyal to Hussein. You will also have your criminal

element that just want to cause general havoc. But overall I believe that Iraq

is now a better place. I am sure the vast majority of People in Iraq are now

very relieved that Saddam Hussein has been removed and the Bath Party is now out

of the Political arena.

Now they have an opportunity to rebuild their country. In time it will become a

success, the extremist will be cut out like the cancer they are. Once the

People see and taste the benefits for Democracy, it will spread throughout the

count like a rash.

Have a good week end Guys and keep safe.

Fraser Cummings. Remote Site Medic, For the moment, somewhere of the African

Coast.

Remember, Rome was not built in a Day….

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[Guest guest]

Thank you. Your words definitely convaded what I could not say.

[Guest guest]

In a message dated 1/25/2004 11:54:16 AM Central Standard Time,

frasercummings@... writes:

I hope that helps answer your question; it is a tough one to answer though.

Are you kidding? You just created a " vaccuum of power " that 60 more questions

flow into.... but yes, you answered my primary question,

Call me crazy but what I fear is the power vaccum being filled with Persian

influence and Those damned Sauds asking us to help contain the spread (while

bombing us as we sleep). I do think that the house of Saud is the greatest evil

in the area and Iraq, albeit a big one, is just a " side show " . But, the funny

thing about this is that since I changed my phone number, no one has called me

to ask which country to invade.....thx,john

[Guest guest]

My question, best directed to Fraser, is with the historical dissent between

Sunni and Shia; will either segment allow the other to govern them?

Dear AMR3330@... thanks for the kind words, In reply to your question, it’s

a difficult one to answer, there are so many different variables and external

influences, which will determine the eventual outcome of who is and who will be

in control of Iraq.

Please remember, this is my analysis of the current situation given the current

events.

I will give you and the list my thoughts; you can let me know what you think.

There are two main issues that you have to keep in the back of your mind,

Firstly the last thing that the West wants is for Iraq to become an Islamic

State/Republic like Iran, which would be their worst Nightmare, One also has to

keep the Oil issue in perspective. A free and Independent Iraq will have far

more control of its oil reserves and this will not be favorable to the West.

But one must always remember that Islam is the main feature of being an Arab.

Islam and the Koran is the guide on how a Muslim should live their life. So who

ever is in control, regardless if it’s Shia of Sunni, Islam will play a central

role in the governing of the country. Understandably, Iraq will want to

maintain its Islamic and Arabic character and culture. The other issue which is

more worrying, is to what degree will Religion be involved in the running of the

country!

In Iraq the Population is about 25million, In terms of Religion, 60% of the

country is Shia, the rest are mainly Sunni, and a further breakdown of

Christians, etc. The main ruling body for the Past 25 years has been the Bath

party, whose religious ties were with the Sunni branch of Islam. The question

that has been asked is will either segment allow the other to Govern, Yes is the

answer to that, I believe that the Shia will, for the mean time, end up being

the party to Govern Iraq, this is due as a result of being the underdog for so

many years, now they have an opportunity take the reigns and will attempt to

seize the upper hand. They are for one the Dominant group; they will also have

support from Iran who is Shia Muslims.

The other issue is that what ever government is to rule, They need to get into

powers as soon as possible, due to the fact that there is a power vacuum as a

result of the Bath Party and Hussein being removed, Islam instead of Democracy,

my be seen as the next obvious choice to fill the space that has been removed by

the Coalition. The People of Iraq want to be governed, they want some semblance

of sanity back in there country, they had this under Hussein, albeit, it was

tyrannical, If its not going to be by Democracy, then Islam is standing waiting

in the wings, I don’t think it will be to long before you start to see Islamic

Clerics from both Sides of the Branch of Islam stocking the fires.

To what degree will Islam dictate the ruling of the Country? Will it follow the

path of Saudi Arabia, I will say no. The form of Islam there is called

Wahhabisim, a branch of the Sunni, This is a very self-righteous and

self-opinionated version of Islam and is by its nature is very extreme and

militant. There were two countries that supported the Brutal Taliban Regime in

Afghanistan. Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, both follow

Wahhabisim. Remember, the vast majority of the suicide bombers who attacked the

Twin Towers came from Saudi, a supposed Allie of the West.

In general the people of Iraq have lead a very open life. Iraq was in the past,

the industrial hub of the Middle East, as was Iran. Women were given a lot of

freedom and were involved in many professional occupations. They traveled

freely and enjoyed a degree of freedom and independence. It is hoped that the

Iraqi people have not forgot the past memory of this industrialized and once

prosperous county.

It would be an unexpected move if the country took a step back and adopted a

Religious stance regards government. Iraq is very much aware what happened to

Iran after their Religious Revolution. As I stated before 60% of Iraq follows

the Shia branch of Islam; it is more than likely that they will attain power.

The Sunni are also aware of the effects of the Iranian State and it is also

unlikely that they will want to follow down that path as well. The Sunni lost a

lot of their power base when Hussein was removed and I believe that they will

want to cooperate with the Shia, but whether the Shia will play along remains to

be seen. But it would not be to the Shias benefit if they outcast the Sunni, as

American aid would not be as forth coming to the rebuilding of Iraq.

I believe that they will want to maintain good ties with the West for the

moment. If for nothing else, but to achieve the authority in the country, and

for the financial aid that is and will continue to come into the country. I

expect that they will pay lip [service to the Sunni as it will benefit them in

the long run. Once they have achieved their power base and the country starts

to return to some semblance of normality, things however may take a different

path. The yardstick will be if there is an increase of attacks on Sunni

religious areas. That will also be good indicators as to how much Militant

Islamic Extremist are have infiltrated the Government.

I hope that helps answer your question; it is a tough one to answer though.

All the Best Mate

Fraser Cummings Remote Site Medic

Somewhere of the African Coast

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