AIDs cases drop by millions...after scientists admit they overestimated disease

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AIDs cases drop by millions...after scientists admit they overestimated

disease

Last updated at 13:41pm on 20th November 2007

The UN's top AIDs scientists overestimated the scale and threat of

infections by millions, a report has revealed today. However, they insisted

the drop in numbers also proved progress was being made.

Last year's estimate of almost 40million cases was largely inflated and the

new estimate of 33.2million cases in 2007 is the result of a new methodology

On Wednesday, WHO and the United Nations AIDS agency will issue their annual

AIDS report, after convening an expert meeting last week in Geneva to

examine their data collection methods.

Much of the global drop in AIDS cases is due to revised numbers from India -

which earlier this year slashed its numbers in half, from about 6 million

cases to about 3 million - and to new data from several countries in

sub-Saharan Africa.

UN officials could not rule out future downward corrections. In their

assessment of the global AIDS epidemic, WHO and UNAIDS experts reported that

there were 2.5 million people newly infected with HIV in 2007. Just a few

years ago, that figure was about 5 million.

Previous AIDS numbers were largely based on the numbers of infected pregnant

women at antenatal clinics, as well as projecting the AIDS rates of certain

high-risk groups like drug users to the entire population at risk. Officials

said those numbers were flawed, and are now incorporating more data like

national household surveys.

Some critics have accused the UN of inflating its AIDS numbers and say the

revised figures are long overdue.

" They've finally got caught with their pants down, " said Dr Jim Chin, a

clinical professor of epidemiology at the University of California at

Berkeley.

Chin said that it was difficult to tell whether the lowered numbers were

evidence that AIDS treatment and prevention strategies were working, or

whether the decrease was just due to a natural correction of previous

overestimates.

But the UN said progress was being made, and that the global epidemic peaked

in the late 1990s.

" There are some encouraging elements in the data, " said Dr De Cock,

director of the World Health Organization's AIDS department. He said the

dropping numbers were proof that some of the UN's strategies to fight AIDS

were working.

Other experts said that even with the decreased figures, much more is needed

to stop the AIDS pandemic.

Africa remains the epicentre of the epidemic. AIDS is still the leading

cause of death there, where it affects men, women and children.

" We are still failing to respond to the crisis, " said Dr. Zeitz,

executive director of the Global AIDS Alliance.

" The overall prevalence of AIDS may have stabilized, but we are still seeing

millions of new infections and it is not time yet to step back from this

battle. "