[NVIC] Flu Hype Could Double Vaccine Market

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BL Fisher Note;

On April 15,2006 the head of the federal Centers for Disease Control

reportedly dismissed the threat of a bird flu pandemic:

http://www.thenewstribune.com/news/local/story/5663788p-5080102c.html

Tacoma News Tribune

April 15, 2006

" There is no evidence it will be the next pandemic, " Dr.

Gerberding,

head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, said of

avian flu. There is " no evidence it is evolving in a direction that is

becoming more transmissible to people. "

The following article published April 20 hypes the multi-billion dollar

profits drug companies could make if enough people around the world get

scared enough about a bogus impending bird flu epidemic. In what is shaping

up to be a classic con fueled by fear, the take-all winners will be the

holders of stock in drug companies making the experimental flu vaccines that

some will justify forcing others to use for " the greater good. "

http://news./s/nm/20060420/bs_nm/birdflu_vaccines_dc_1

Reuters via News

April 20, 2006

Pandemic threat could double flu vaccine market

LONDON (Reuters) - The threat of a pandemic triggered by bird flu has

reignited the influenza vaccine market, which could double in value over the

next five years, independent research group Datamonitor said on Thursday.

It believes the flu vaccine market could exceed $3 billion by 2010 in the

top seven markets alone, against an estimated $1.6 billion worldwide in

2005.

Normal seasonal vaccines will not be effective against any outbreak of

pandemic flu, so a number of companies are now racing to develop novel

vaccines designed to contain the threat posed by the avian H5N1 strain.

The past year has seen extensive deal-making in the vaccines sector, with

GlaxoKline (GSK.L) buying ID Biomedical, Novartis (NOVN.VX) acquiring

Chiron and Crucell (CRCL.AS) taking over Berna. These deals have been

primarily aimed at boosting capacity and securing novel know-how.

Flu shots are currently made using chicken eggs, a laborious process that

limits manufacturers' ability to scale up production. But in the future, new

manufacturing technologies, notably cell-culture based approaches, could

potentially account for 15 percent of overall flu vaccine capacity,

Datamonitor predicts.

There are 18 flu vaccine manufacturers operating in nine countries

worldwide, with the 14 biggest accounting for 90 percent of global supply.

The leading player is Sanofi-Aventis (SASY.PA), with revenues of $835

million in 2005 and a 45 percent global market share by value in 2004,

according to Datamonitor.

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