[NVIC] Avian Flu Pandemic May Not Occur

[Guest guest]

From Geberding at CDC

" We're focusing a lot of attention on avian influenza, " she said. " But

[human-to-human transmission of the disease] hasn't happened --- and it may

not happen . " "

If CDC admits that, we know its been hype (they usually don't admit

anything and hype away)

Sheri

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BL Fisher Note:

The fear and anxiety which has been generated by constant reports of an

avian flu " pandemic " have persuaded many in Congress to bow to pressure from

drug company lobbyists and support legislation removing all liability for

vaccine injuries and deaths. The Burr bill sailing through the Senate HELP

Committee is the direct result of the terror which has been created in the

public imagination about avian flu. It is good news if Dr. Gerberding has

found out that avian flu is a remote possibility, even though a future flu

pandemic caused by another flu virus is an inevitability. The challenge is

to plan for a pandemic without lowering standards for proof of vaccine

safety and effiicacy and without removing all liability and accountability

from those companies which make vaccines.

http://www.ajc.com/today/content/epaper/editions/today/news_3475e2765396f19b

00a2.html?COXnetJSessionIDbuild101=DcTCLvrqnRXfAEjx7iTwAnCkcR556bc4jDt4LrZ5z

zXxxXRmMbuf!-2129471560 & UrAuth=aNaNUOaNXUbTTUWUXUTUZT[uTUWU\UWUZU]U[ucTYWYWZ

V & urcm=y

Atlanta Journal Constitution

CDC chief treads lightly with flu news

Dave Hirschman - Staff

Thursday, October 20, 2005

The director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr.

Gerberding, returned this week from a 10-day avian flu fact-finding trip to

Asia, saying said she fears a backlash for " crying wolf " if a feared flu

pandemic doesn't take place.

Gerberding, who accompanied Health and Human Services Secretary

Leavitt and other public health officials on the trip, told a gathering from

the Atlanta business community on Wednesday about the precarious downside of

raising international alarms about the dangers of avian flu.

" We're focusing a lot of attention on avian influenza, " she said. " But

[human-to-human transmission of the disease] hasn't happened --- and it may

not happen . "

But Gerberding said " we're overdue " for an outbreak because there have been

10 such pandemics in the last 300 years.

In 1918, a strain of flu similar to avian flu --- known then as Spanish

influenza --- killed 50 million people worldwide, including 675,000

Americans.

Any current preparations will not be wasted, she said. " The efforts we're

making now will be needed [to combat] a future pandemic. "

The virus has sickened at least 117 people in Southeast Asia since 2003,

killing at least 60, and has caused the direct death or preventive

destruction of millions of chickens and ducks. But scientists say the virus

has not yet developed the ability to spread easily from person to person,

which they fear would trigger a pandemic that could kill millions of people.

Gerberding told the business gathering that if avian flu turns out to be a

repeat of the 1977 swine flu scare --- or if it becomes the medical

equivalent of the " millennium bug " that was widely expected to paralyze the

world's computer networks at the end of 1999 --- the world may ignore other

warnings and fail to prepare for future pandemics.

The swine flu controversy cost the job of Gerberding's predecessor at CDC,

Dr. Sencer, after influenza vaccine developed for the virus --- and

urged upon the public by then-President Gerald Ford --- caused paralyzing

Guillain-Barre syndrome in more than 500 people, killing 32.

Gerberding's remarks came as new bird flu outbreaks were reported in

European, Russian and Chinese birds.

Preliminary tests on fowl from a region south of Moscow where hundreds of

birds suddenly died have detected a deadly strain of bird flu, Russia said

Wednesday, bolstering signs that the dreaded virus might be spreading across

Siberia to the Mediterranean.

The Chinese government reported the discovery of 2,600 birds felled by bird

flu in northern China's grasslands.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization warned of a marked

increase in chances that migratory birds would spread the virus to the

Middle East and vulnerable Africa as well. The European Union announced

plans for an exercise simulating a human flu pandemic to improve readiness

in case the bird virus mutates to form a strain transmissible among people.

On Tuesday, EU foreign ministers declared the spread of bird flu from Asia

to Europe a global threat.

If bird flu is confirmed in the bird deaths in the Tula region, 125 miles

south of Moscow, the discovery would mark the first time the lethal strain

has appeared in European Russia, west of the Ural Mountains.

Although anxiety is widespread over the arrival of bird flu in Europe ---

European Union health ministers will convene a special session today to

discuss the problem --- the next stops on bird migratory pathways are not in

Western Europe, but in the Middle East, North Africa and East Africa,

according to United Nations officials in Rome.

Countries and farmers in these parts of the world, particularly in East

Africa, are completely unprepared, lacking both the money and scientific

infrastructure to control virus outbreaks, the U.N. officials said.

''One of our major concerns is now the potential spread of avian influenza

through migratory birds to North and Eastern Africa,'' said Dr. ph

Domenech, the chief veterinary officer at the U.N. Food and Agriculture

Organization, which monitors the spread of the disease in animals.

If the disease touches down there, it could well become widespread in the

environment and on farms before it is even detected, he said.

Also, because in poorer African nations people live in close proximity with

animals, such a situation would provide a dangerous crucible for the mixing

of the bird and human viruses, vastly increasing the risk of human-to-human

infectivity.

Gerberding said avian flu has the potential for " a high degree of mortality "

if it develops into a form that easily spreads among people.

CDC officials are helping their counterparts in other countries diagnose and

monitor diseases, she said, adding that international health organizations

are sharing information faster than ever.

" There are signs of great challenge " Gerberding said, " but also of great

hope. "

The Associated Press and The New York Times contributed to this article.

BIRD FLU FEARS

Many people in the United States, and in Spain, Italy, France, Germany and

Britain, are expressing concerns about the spread of bird flu.

An Ipsos poll conducted before the disease spread to Europe found that those

in Spain and Italy were most concerned, with about half the people in those

countries saying they were worried. Only one-third in the United States say

they are worried.

Roughly four in 10 people in Britain and France and three in 10 in Germany

say they're worried. In the countries polled, government officials are

preparing to stockpile millions of doses of vaccines. Governments are taking

additional steps:

> France: 50 million masks to protect against bird flu are being delivered

to French hospitals, and by year's end 200 million masks should be

available.

> Italy: Dozens of extra veterinarians have been hired to help authorities

monitor the health of poultry and label poultry to indicate where the meat

comes from.

> Britain: The government has asked hunting and conservation groups to help

monitor the country's bird population.

> Spain: The government has imposed a ban on bird imports from affected

countries Romania and Turkey. And citizens most at risk would be protected

through a vaccination campaign against flu.

> Germany: Farmers are being asked to keep their poultry inside and away

from any possible contact with migrating birds.

The polling of about 1,000 adults in each of the countries was conducted

Sept 23-Oct. 1. Each survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus

3 percentage points.

- Associated Press

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