Wrong flu strain AGAIN

[Guest guest]

This Year´s Flu Vaccine

Targets Wrong Strain

Here We Go Again... H3N2 A Influenza,

Variant Strain, Wellington-LIKE

From Doyle, PhD

dr_p_doyle@...

10-26-4

Hello, Jeff - Here we go again, another " variant " season. But, guess what,

the flu vaccine that everyone is standing in line, risking illness to get, does

not protect against this years Wellington-LIKE strain. Of course, that is if

one believes flu vaccine really protects against flu. My opinion is that it

simply tricks and weakens the immune system enabling other flu strains not in

vaccine to do their dirtiest work.

Exerpt: " The flu season has been late this year [2004], and it seems some

people who have been vaccinated have been hit by this changing strain, " said New

Zealand Health Ministry flu chief Dr. Lance Jennings. "

I am wonder when the deadly " spanish flu " variant will appear? Given the

risky research, this could occur any day now.

BTW, it does seem a bit odd that news of this variant strain is breaking so

late. The Southern Hemisphere is now well into the Spring season. Winter is

long gone. One would think that this strain, given the numbers below, i.e. 43%,

would have been identified and made public sooner.

Exerpt: " Tests suggest that 43 percent of recent New Zealand flu cases spring

from the new strain, or variants of it. A/Wellington has even turned up about

as far from the South Pacific as is geographically possible: in Norway. "

In any event, the flu vaccine shortage might be considered to be a " plus " re

our health. If people only use common sense and 1. stay home when ill, 2.

wash hands often, 3. eat right and keep the immune system functioning and 4.

stay

out of crowds and avoid flu vaccine as well as the long lines.

BTW...not every sniffle or cough is the flu.

Doyle

A Pro Med Post

Northern Hemisphere Risk Of A/Wellington/1/2004(H3N2)-Like Virus

By Sabin San Francisco Chronicle Sun 24 Oct 2004 [edited]

As Americans scramble for scarce doses of flu vaccine in hopes of warding off

the respiratory bug this winter [2004-2005], the wily influenza virus may

have other plans. Through a natural process known as antigenic drift, a new

strain of influenza that can diminish the effectiveness of today´s vaccine is

already emerging on the far side of the world. The emergent strain raising

questions now is known as A/Wellington, named after the New Zealand city where

it was

1st detected. " The flu season has been late this year [2004], and it seems

some people who have been vaccinated have been hit by this changing strain, "

said

New Zealand Health Ministry flu chief Dr. Lance Jennings.

Like weather forecasters watching tropical storms, epidemiologists for the

World Health Organization track the ever-evolving strains of influenza. The

predominant flu virus around the globe right now is one called A/Fujian, and the

vaccine Americans are seeking today is a perfect match for it. But,

A/Wellington is gaining ground. Tests suggest that 43 percent of recent New

Zealand flu

cases spring from the new strain, or variants of it. A/Wellington has even

turned up about as far from the South Pacific as is geographically possible: in

Norway.

The late season surge of A/Wellington was so worrying that the WHO, on 8 Oct

2004, recommended that next year´s [2005] flu vaccine for the Southern

Hemisphere, which is shipped in March, be reformulated to protect against it.

Dr.

, director of the Influenza Branch at the Centers for Disease Control

and Prevention, said there is no way of knowing whether the A/Wellington strain

will establish a beachhead in the United States this winter. " Influenza

viruses are inherently unpredictable, " she said in a telephone interview.

One reason for concern is that laboratory animal tests suggest that the

current vaccine -- which targets A/Fujian -- is about 2/3rds less effective in

stirring antibodies against A/Wellington than it is against the targeted strain.

That does not mean, emphasized, that the current flu shot would be 2/3rds

less effective in actual use, should the A/Wellington strain turn up in the

United States. People who regularly receive flu shots, she said, may have higher

levels of antibody protection against influenza than the laboratory animals.

" We would not anticipate that the Wellington strain will cause an enormous

problem, " she said.

Doris Bucher, a flu vaccine expert at New York Medical College in Valhalla,

N.Y., said the animal tests on A/Wellington are actually encouraging, because

they show that antibodies stirred up by today´s vaccine will inhibit the new

strain. " If Wellington rushed in and took over, people would have good

protection with the current vaccine, " she said. Bucher´s lab specializes in

developing

strains of influenza that grow well in eggs and hence serve as the basis for

each year´s flu vaccine made from eggs. The current flu vaccine is made from a

strain developed by her laboratory, and she is working right now on an

A/Wellington-like strain for manufacturers who will make next year´s [2005]

vaccines.

When flu vaccines are well-matched to the prevailing flu strains, the shots

can prevent flu in 70 to 90 percent of vaccinated adults, according to the CDC.

Well-matched shots may prevent flu in only 30 to 40 percent of nursing home

residents, but they can reduce the death rate from influenza and pneumonia in

that population by 80 percent. American manufacturers need a 9-month lead to

produce flu vaccine. That requires flu forecasters to predict in February what

the prevailing flu strain will be November.

In February 2003, the Food and Drug Administration´s Vaccines and Related

Biological Products Advisory Committee selected a strain called A/Panama as the

target. Another strain, known as A/Fujian, was starting to emerge on the World

Health Organization´s flu radar, but planners feared there was not enough time

to develop a vaccine for it. Influenza struck the United States early and

hard last year [2003]. The 1st cases turned up in early October 2003 in Texas,

and soon anxious Americans were clamoring for vaccine, a foreshadowing of this

year´s [2004] flu shot frenzy.

A near-record 83 million eventually had a flu shot last fall [2003]. But, the

predominant flu strain was not A/Panama but A/Fujian, and the vaccine was

only partially effective. A Colorado study for the CDC concluded last year´s flu

shots were 52 percent effective in protecting healthy adults against flu and

38 percent effective in preventing flu among those with health conditions

putting them at higher risk.

Bucher said it is reassuring that tests are showing there is less of a

mismatch between the current flu vaccine and A/Wellington than there was last

year

[2003] between A/Panama and A/Fujian. " It´s nothing like the situation we had

last year,´´ she said. The issue, of course, will be academic if the A/Fujian

strain predominates again this year, as it did in the Southern Hemisphere

during most of the winter season that has now ended there. Those 61 million

Americans who find the vaccine will be protected.

There is also some evidence that the A/Fujian strain, having swept across the

globe last year [2003], may have lost its punch. Despite the late emergence

of the new flu strain, influenza was unusually mild throughout the Southern

Hemisphere from May through October 2004. One reason may be that the human

population, vaccinated or not, developed its own natural resistance to A/Fujian

when

it came through last winter [2003]. " There are a number of factors that

determine whether you will have a good, medium, or bad flu year, and clearly a

major factor is whether the predominant strain happens to be the same as the one

the previous year,´´ said Dr. Fauci, director of the National Institute

of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. So far, there have been only isolated

cases of flu detected in the United States at the start of this year´s flu

season, and all have turned out to be A/Fujian. " Things are looking pretty good,

in

that regard,´´ Fauci said. " But, that doesn´t mean we won´t get into trouble

in November or December [2004]. "

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2004/10/24/FLU.TMP

[The WHO Recommendations for Influenza Vaccine Composition for the Northern

hemisphere for 2004-2005 (the current vaccine) are the following:

(1) an A/New Caledonia/20/99(H1N1)-like virus (2) an

A/Fujian/411/2002(H3N2)-like virus a (3) a B/Shanghai/361/2002-like virus b

a: The currently used vaccine virus is A/Wyoming/3/2003. A /Kumamoto/102/2002

is also available as a vaccine virus.

b: Candidate vaccine viruses include B/Shanghai/361/2002 and B/Jilin/20/2003

which is a B/Shanghai/361/2002-like virus.

For more detailed information, please see: Recommended composition of

influenza virus vaccines for use in the 2004-2005 influenza season, Weekly

Epidemiological Record, 27 Feb 2004.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/vaccinerecommendations1/en/index1.htm

l

The WHO Recommendations for Influenza Vaccine Composition for the southern

hemisphere for 2005 (southern hemisphere winter) are the following:

(1) an A/New Caledonia/20/99(H1N1)-like virus; (2) an

A/Wellington/1/2004(H3N2)-like virus; (3) a B/Shanghai/361/2002-like virus a

a: Currently used vaccine viruses include B/Shanghai/361/2002,

B/Jilin/20/2003 and B/Jiangsu/10/2003

For more detailed information, please see: Recommended composition of

influenza virus vaccines for use in the 2005 influenza season, Weekly

Epidemiological

Record, 8 Oct 2004.

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/influenza/vaccinerecommendations1/en/index.html

- Mod.CP]

A. Doyle, PhD Please visit my " Emerging Diseases " message board at:

http://www.clickitnews.com/ubbthreads/postlist.php?

Cat= & Board=emergingdiseases

Zhan le Devlesa tai sastimasa

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