Stars and Stripes

[Guest guest]

For those wondering what this has to do with the price of eggs in China,

you'll see when you get down to 'readiness' issues.

Jan 19, 2001

Bill Gertz and Rowan Scarborough

Special to The Stars and Stripes

China Blockade Prep

The Pentagon recently monitored a Chinese military exercise that provided

new insights into plans by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) for action

against Taiwan.

U.S. intelligence agencies detected military operations, both naval and

ground force movements, involving a mock seaborne blockade against the

island.

What was unusual about the exercises, according to intelligence officials,

was that the scenario included the positioning of two U.S. aircraft carrier

battle groups to waters near Taiwan.

The [mock U.S.] carriers just sat there.

- Pentagon official

" The carriers just sat there, " said one official.

The Chinese military's assumption that the carriers and warships did not

intervene to break the blockade in defense of Taiwan alarmed some analysts.

The reason: It showed the Chinese military does not believe that the United

States military is prepared to defend the island in that particular attack

scenario. This has raised new fears of some type of miscalculation by the

Chinese that could lead to direct U.S. involvement in a regional conflict

with Beijing.

The September exercise came seven months after Adm. Dennis Blair met

privately in Beijing with top PLA generals. The Pacific commander told them

that if China attacks Taiwan, the United States is prepared to defend the

island. The Chinese generals' response was to dismiss the statement as " a

laughable bluster, " one official told us.

Chinese doubts about U.S. resolve stem from the failure of the U.S. military

to conduct any military exercises with Taiwan and the fact that U.S.

warships never visit Taiwanese ports.

The recent PLA exercise bolsters the claims of conservative defense analysts

in Congress, who say the Clinton administration policy of ignoring Taiwan in

pursuit of better relations with Beijing has increased instability on the

Taiwan Strait.

Congress sought to remedy the problem last year with the Taiwan Security

Enhancement Act, which aims to increase U.S. defense cooperation with the

island. The bill passed the House and had support from President-elect

W. Bush during the presidential campaign.

A naval blockade was one of three methods outlined in a Pentagon report made

public last month that would be used by China in a potential attack against

Taiwan. In addition to a blockade, the Pentagon believes an attack on Taiwan

could also be carried out as a massive missile strike designed to cripple

Taiwan, and as an amphibious assault.

The Pentagon report said that intelligence gaps had prevented analysts from

predicting the outcome of a China Strait conflict.

Don't Mess with Don

H. Rumsfeld's reputation as a tenacious infighter is illustrated in

one anecdote from his chairmanship of the Commission to Assess the Ballistic

Missile Threat to the United States.

L. Garwin, a noted physicist and national security authority, served

on the commission. He tells us that when CIA Director Tenet balked at

showing the panel secret data on worldwide missile developments, Mr.

Rumsfeld did not take " no " for an answer.

It was due to Rumsfeld's aggressive, but effective, intervention that we did

get this [missile data].

- L. Garwin

" It took about six weeks before Tenet saw the light and became very

cooperative, " Mr. Garwin said. " Rumsfeld explained that this was the law and

the CIA had no choice. It was due to Rumsfeld's aggressive, but effective,

intervention that we did get this. "

Mr. Garwin differs with Mr. Rumsfeld on what type of defense is needed

against ballistic missiles. Still, the two worked collegially on the 1998

commission.

" He knew what he wanted to do, but in this case he was perfectly open.

Otherwise, I would not have served with him, " said Mr. Garwin, a senior

fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. " He listened to every commission

member and accepted modification until everyone was satisfied with the

report. "

Ironically, Mr. Rumsfeld faces some of the exact same readiness problems

today that the armed force suffered through in 1975 and 1976 when he led the

Pentagon under President Ford.

In a 1976 report, Mr. Rumsfeld complained that " too many tactical aircraft

are grounded awaiting repair, which in too many instances is delayed because

spare parts are lacking .... The materiel readiness of U.S. land forces is

improving, but remains substandard in some important respects. "

Today, the Joint Chiefs of Staff say the Air Force, Army, Navy and Marine

Corps need $50 billion in new annual spending to fix spare-parts shortages,

replace aging aircraft and equipment, and meet recruiting goals.

Air Force Doldrums

The Air Force has told the Bush-Cheney transition team it still suffers deep

readiness problems first disclosed publicly more than two years ago.

In a transition update book dated Jan. 10, the Air Force said squadrons

still lack sufficient spare parts and see a downward trend in mission

capable rates.

Some highlights:

* Major combat units in top two readiness categories are down 24 percentage

points since 1996 to 67 percent.

* Air Combat Command, which oversees fighter and bomber wings, is

experiencing an overall readiness decline of 39 percentage points since

1996, 86 percent to 47 percent.

* Overall aircraft mission capable rate is down 10.7 percent since 1991.

* The " not mission capable maintenance " rate is up 4.8 percent since 1991,

largely due to manpower shortages and frequent deployments.

* The total " not mission capable supply " rate increased 5.9 percent, mostly

due to spare parts shortfalls.

In addition to these problems, the Air Force continues to operate with a

significant pilot shortage. Of 13,400 pilot slots, 1,200 are vacant and a

" significant shortfall " is projected over the next five years, the service

says.

Solidarity with Troops

There is talk in the Pentagon about ways to coax President-elect W.

Bush out of the White House to spend some time with the troops. The most

frequently discussed idea within the Joint Chiefs of Staff is a series of

photo ops with the president jogging with members of various units.

Mr. Bush, an ex-Air National Guard fighter pilot, pledged during the

presidential campaign to rebuild military readiness and set a good example

as commander in chief. He paid his first visit to the Pentagon last week as

president-elect, sitting down in the secure " tank " to discuss worldwide

trouble spots with the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

" There is some talk about [it] in the building, but little specifics,

unfortunately, " said one officer. " You probably saw that Bush visited the

Pentagon, largely to visit with the senior leadership and transition staff.

I expect he'll be here much more often than his predecessor. "

In other transition developments, Republicans say Schneider Jr. will

likely take a senior post at the Pentagon, but not immediately.

Defense-Secretary-nominee H. Rumsfeld brought him in to take over

what sources say was an " unfocused " transition effort.

Sources said Mr. Schneider, a former undersecretary of state in the Reagan

administration, has obligations in the private sector that could delay him

for six months or so from taking a Pentagon post.

_________________________________________________________________

Get your FREE download of MSN Explorer at http://explorer.msn.com