Re: medscape journal article

[Guest guest]

No one really knows the death rate from an anthrax attack, because there

are too many intangibles.

Determining factors include the virulence of the strain, whether it was

chosen for vaccine resistance, and the number of spores inhaled, which

will be a function of wind and weather and where one is located relative

to the release. In Sverdlovsk (Yekaterinburg) only about 80 died. Once

the spores touch the ground, the danger is tremendously reduced, as they

appear not to easily aerosolize again in sufficient quantities to cause

many infections. However, this may not be the case if sufficient spores

are used.

Different authors hazard different guesses about how much anthrax it

will take to cover a certain size area, but their guesses can't ignore

weather. Believe me, though: General Zinni's claim to Congress that a

planeload of anthrax could blanket an area from Chicago to the Gulf of

Mexico, and travel east to West Virginia, is science fiction. For one

thing, it travels in a narrow plume, not a blanket. Sure, a few spores

will find their way far afield...but if it takes 50,000 spores to kill a

ten pound rhesus monkey, it will take more than one or two to kill a 160

pound man. I can dig out the citations if someone needs them.

Meryl

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Meryl Nass, M.D.

124 Wardtown Road

Freeport, Maine 04032

phone (207) 865-0875

fax (207) 865-6975