Neff from UNICEF Children on the Brink

[Guest guest]

I wanted to share an email from Neff from UNICEF in response to

Alma's inquiry (below) on China orphan estimates included in Table 3 (p.31)

of " Children on the Brink "

http://www.synergyaids.com/documents/cob_layout6-013.pdf. Thank you again

Neff!

Best,

Berard

CABA Moderator

______________________________________________________________________

Brief explanation for estimates of orphans, specifically in China.

For our estimates of orphans we use a demographic model that projects

the

population, along with age-specific fertility and age-specific

mortality.

Using this one can estimate the number of orphans as they are the

children

left behind by adults who die. Obviously this approach depends on the

quality of the demographic projection that one has for a country.

China's

data is probably pretty good, although there may be some under counting.

Now in countries where there is a large HIV/AIDS epidemic the

demographic

model must be altered to take into account the effects of HIV on

mortality,

and to a degree, fertility. In those countries we add on the

AIDS-specific

mortality to look at the additional effects of AIDS on deaths and the

resulting number of orphans.

In some countries we also have survey data (usually from DHS) on the

number

or orphans. We have used those survey data to refine our demographic

models and also to help us refine the estimates of HIV/AIDS. Those

surveys, since they are household based may somewhat under estimate

orphans, as they do not include those who are in orphanages, but in most

African countries that is not a big problem.

So directly related to the question, we do not use state reports of

orphans

or ennumerations as that could lead to over-estimates based on children

who

are the facilities could still have living parents. So for China, the

estimates of orphans are based solely on the demographic model.

Neff

UNICEF

Ingrid Kloet

New Mexico Poz Coalition

1193 Morning Dr.

Santa Fe, NM 87507

Phone/Fax: 505-438-4767

Cell Phone: 505-280-2218

www.planetpoz.org

www.gnpplus.net

www.actalive.org

www.onevillage.org