Re: AIDS and Population Growth in Kenia

[Guest guest]

Dear

You observed right!

Did you also notice that despite the enormous resources and the significant technological advancements in prevention, diagnoses, and treatment, TB and Malaria alone are claiming more lives than 50 years ago!

I share with you the confusion and wonder what is going on!

Shakur van Deelen <avdeelen@...> wrote:

One thing I don't understand. If AIDS is depopulating Kenia,how come Kenia's population is actually growing?1950 6,1211980 16,6982000 30,310According to these US Census Bureau numbers, between1980 and 2000, Kenia's population grew 81.5% (that's anaverage of 3.02% per year)This is actually higher than countries that have very little"HIV infection", like Nigeria: 1950 31,7971980 69,6292000 123,750(Population growth of Nigeria between 1980 and 2000was 77.7% or 2.9% per year.)Ghana1950 5,2971980 11,0162000 19,509(Population growth in Ghana from 1980 to 2000 was 77.1% or 2.89% per year.)Sources: US Census BureauKenia: http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbsum?cty=ke Nigeria: http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbsum?cty=ni Ghana:

http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbsum?cty=gh

[Guest guest]

Message: 7

Date: Tue, 16 Dec 2003 01:40:22 -0500 (EST)

From: Abdishakur Abdulle <horeye12@...>

Subject: Re: AIDS and Population Growth in Kenia

> Dear

>

> You observed right!

>

> Did you also notice that despite the enormous resources and the

> significant technological advancements in prevention, diagnoses,

> and treatment, TB and Malaria alone are claiming more lives than

> 50 years ago!

>

> I share with you the confusion and wonder what is going on!

>

> Shakur

Hi Shakur,

In many countries, there are 5 times as many people living today

than there were 50 years ago. (Holland's population in comparison

only doubled since the 1940s from 8 million to 16 million.)

The increasing populations in the last 20 years in Africa are

totally inconsistent with a new deadly disease affecting

the population in any significant numbers.

There is another study of 41 schools in Uganda, Malawi and

Botswana to look into teacher mortality. For some reason

the bureaucrats in Geneva hypothesised that being a teacher

in Africa puts you in the same type of high risk groups as

male homosexuals and intravenus drug users in Europe

and the US. LOL.

Dr. Bennell is a researcher at Sussex University's Institute

for Development Studies.

What he found, was a teacher mortality in:

Botswana: 0.8%

Uganda: < 1.0% (and falling, and " probably half " caused by AIDS)

" It is widely asserted that teachers are a high-risk behaviour group

and that therefore HIV prevalence among the teaching profession

is higher than the adult population. No supporting evidence for this

assertion is found in the three country studies or any other country

in SSA. Teacher mortality in Botswana, for example, was less than

half than that projected for the overall adult population in the late

1990s. Mortality rates vary also widely among teachers according

to type of school (primary and secondary), gender, location and

marital status. In general, mortality rates are much higher among

primary school teachers and male teachers. More research is

urgently needed to establish the key factors underlying what

appear to be very large mortality rate differentials among

different groups of teachers.

" Trends in mortality rates have also been investigated. In Uganda,

mortality for both primary and secondary school teachers

peaked at less than one percent during 1995-97. Probably around

half of this mortality was AIDS-related. Both in absolute terms and

in relation to high rates of attrition from other causes (resignations,

retirements, etc), this level of mortality has not posed a serious threat

to the development of the education sector in Uganda. Primary

school enrolments expanded over threefold with the introduction

of UPE in 1994 and there is currently an excess supply of

secondary teachers. The overall mortality rate among teachers

in Botswana was around 0.8 percent in 1999/2000. "

http://www2.ncsu.edu/ncsu/aern/suxrep.html