Fwd: [NHLlow] PP: Revlimid and NHL

[Guest guest]

From our good friends at NHL-Low -

Greetings,

This is an exciting one to me, the next generation of Thalomid and

Folkman's science/anti-angiogenesis connection.

Regards,

-Ben(KIA)

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Analysis: Celgene's Revlimid looks strong

By STEVE MITCHELL

UPI Senior Medical Correspondent

WASHINGTON, Dec. 11 (UPI) -- Data being presented this week should

help drive sales of Celgene's Revlimid, but analysts are split on

the size of the impact.

The studies, which are being presented at the American Society of

Hematology meeting in Orlando, Fla., involve use of Revlimid in the

multiple myeloma, chronic lymphocytic leukemia, and non-Hodgkin's

lymphoma settings.

The myeloma data should help to establish Revlimid as the standard

of care in front-line disease, Jim Reddoch, an analyst with

Friedman, Billings & Ramsey, told United Press International.

The drug is already incorporated into some front-line use, but " this

will probably accelerate it, " Reddoch added.

Revlimid is currently approved for second-line treatment of multiple

myeloma and also as a treatment for certain types of myelodysplastic

syndromes.

Another advantage of the myeloma data is that it's creating a high

bar for competitors. " They're establishing themselves as the drug to

beat, " Reddoch said.

In the phase 2 trial involving CLL patients, the Revlimid group

exhibited a 9 percent complete response rate and a 38 percent

partial response rate.

The data on CLL should bring in $190 million in U.S. sales in 2010,

ultimately growing to total U.S. sales of $500 million, Reddoch

said.

Revlimid is also looking good in non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. " The data

in that indication is panning out better than people's

expectations, " Reddoch said, noting that NHL sales could generate

another $1 billion in U.S. sales.

In a phase 2 study in indolent NHL, patients had a 26 percent

overall response rate, including one complete response and five

partial responses.

Celgene's near-term fate rests on Revlimid, but the company looks

strong going into next year and beyond.

" I think it's going to be a huge year for them, " Reddoch said. The

ASH studies are " really just giving us an indication of things to

come, " he added, noting that these are phase 2 studies, and more

robust phase 3 study results will be emerging in 2007 or 2008.

" We calculate (earnings per share) growth of 37 percent from '07-

'10, making (Celgene) big biotech's best growth story, " Reddoch

stated in a research note issued Monday.

Osborne, an analyst with Lazard, said Celgene has other

compounds in the pipeline that could begin emerging in the clinic

next year.

" It's mostly been a Revlimid story, but in 2007 we could see data

from compounds outside of this class in other indications, such as

psoriasis, " Osborne told UPI.

Still, there is a lot of opportunity for Revlimid to cash in on.

" The Revlimid story is not completely told yet, so there's a lot

more room for growth both in primary indications, myeloma and

MDS .... and now we're getting a sense of the use of the drug

outside of these indications for CLL and NHL, " Osborne said.

Overall, the company is in a very favorable position. Osborne, who

rates the stock a buy, noted they have $1.8 billion in cash after

completing one of the largest secondary offerings in the history of

biotech.

However, , an analyst with R.W. Baird, said it was too

early to determine if Revlimid would become the leader in the CLL

and NHL settings.

" We view this early data as intriguing, but we remain unconvinced

that Revlimid would represent a significant improvement over current

treatment options, " stated in a research note issued

Monday. " Therefore, while it is reasonable to assume some share for

Revlimid in these settings, we do not predict that Revlimid will

dominate these diseases. "

remained cautious on the stock because he thinks that any

shortfall in Revlimid from the bullish forecasts of Wall Street

could have a significantly negative impact.

Phil Nadeau, an analyst with Cowen, agreed that the data in the CLL

and NHL settings were still preliminary.

Nadeau told UPI his physician consultants say Revlimid is rapidly

becoming the standard of care for multiple myeloma, but with regard

to NHL and CLL " most physicians say the data is intriguing but they

want to see the findings replicated in larger trials. "

Nadeau projects total Revlimid sales of $1.02 billion in 2007. Sales

will increase to $2.3 billion by 2011, but only about $500 million

of that will come from the CLL and NHL settings, he said.