Tamil Nadu's economy will take a hit due to AIDS: UN Report

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Tamil Nadu's economy will take a hit due to AIDS: UN Report

January 8, 2001. K.Santosh Nair, Chennai

The latest United Nations (UN) report on AIDS indicating that half of

all the HIV and AIDS infected people in the world are below the age

of 25 years, and that there has been an alarming increase in number

of people getting infected with the dreaded HIV virus in Chennai and

Mumbai has set the ball rolling in that the authorities are now

viewing the same as a failure on their part to contain the spread of

the dreaded disease. More so in Chennai, which though was in the list

of 'highly vulnerable' along with Salem, Namakkal and Vellore had not

been so focused upon.

But what is more disturbing the authorities is the possible economic

impact on the state due to the increase in spread of the dreaded

diseases affecting the age group (23 -32 years) which is considered

the most productive. Though the official machinery has not initiated

any official work to assess the impact on the economy due to the

alarming increase, sociologists and economists are now ringing the

bell. They claim that while it is not the question of whether

failures in implementing programmes to contain the dreaded disease

that has led to the alarming increasing, it is question of whether

the economy of the state could sustain itself in the wake of this

alarming increase. They further claim that while the official

machinery has been vociferous in its effort in conducting educational

awareness programmes and preventive measures in order to check the

dreaded disease, the impact on the economy has been ignored all the

time. " It is high time that some exercise is conducted by the

official machinery to assess the impact on the economy lest all money

go to awareness and preventive measures burdening the economy at the

very end, " said one developmental scientist, on anonymity terms, at

the Madras Institute of Development Studies (MIDS).

No reports have been made public as to whether any organization, be

it governmental or non-governmental, has conducted studies on the

impact of the economy due to the increasing number of HIV cases in

the state. Develomental scientists claim that Tamil Nadu, which had

always remained in the cynosure of many HIV activists due to the

increasing number of people getting affected by HIV year after year

since 1991, would have to face severe consequences due to the

alarming increase. With the growing industrialization in the state,

and with more and more people resorting to high risk activities , the

state will surely face an economic burden in terms of productivity

and growth rate due to the increasing number of people in the age

group of 23 to 32 getting affected by the HIV virus.

The scientists further claim that already there has been a telling

affect on the economy of the state what with an increased portion of

the health budget being diverted to containing and preventing AIDS

even though there has been no serious effort on part of the state

government to undertake a study on the impact. " We are certain that

the state is already losing out to AIDS , so is its economy. The

unfortunate part however is that not much attention is being given to

this very important aspect. Compounding the problem further is the

non-interest among the big corporates to initiate studies to assess

the impact of AIDS on their productivity and bottom line, " said a

sociologist of the Madras School of Social Work.

What is worrying the sociologists, economists and developmental

scientists alike is the possible increase in the number of people

getting affected by AIDS. More than 90 per cent of the industrial

investments in the state over the last five years has been made in

Chennai. And of course the major contributor to the economical growth

rate of the state is made by the industrial sector in Chennai, thus

making it the most important of all places. The latest UN report

bracketing Chennai with Mumbai as the metro which will have an

alarming increase in the number of people amongst the productive

group falling prey to the dreaded disease may help in attracting

attention of the authorities to include Chennai in the programme

schedules concerning the disease. " What we fear is that more money

will be channelised into preventing and containing the disease when

Chennai is included in the list. Which means hardly any money left to

undertake a study on the impact of the economy due to AIDS, " claims

Dr.Saraswathi Sankaran, Founder -Director of Deepam Education Society

for Health (DESH) , one of the few non -government organizations in

the country recognized as mother-NGO by the Government of India.

This is one thing that has prompted DESH, a NGO based in Chennai, to

undertake a study on the economic impact way back in 1994. Though

statistics released by it, Dr. Sankaran claims the same to be not

representative, is in context with the then prevailing situation,

what is surprising is that the same hold good even now. The same has

been pointed out by many economists and sociologists who have claimed

that the formulae used to calculate to arrive at the not so

representative statistics on the possible economic impact may still

be used to arrive at a statistic taking the present situation into

consideration.

The study conducted by DESH covers the Annual loss to Tamil Nadu

economy by loss of output, loss of income to workers and cost to

industries besides the impact on the industry. The report is perhaps

the only one of its kind prepared either by a government organization

or a NGO in the country, though it restricts itself to covering only

Tamil Nadu.

Liasing with the local Chamber of Commerce, the NGO made a study on

some large industrial organizations, both public and private, in the

state to asses the existing situation concerning variables like

productivity, workers' output, absenteeism, sickness, healthcare

costs, time taken and cost incurred on training per person. The study

showed that on an average, 32 per cent of workers had multi-partner

sexual (MPS) behaviour. Absenteeism was at a19 per cent. A majority

of these employees with high risk behaviour through MPS are probably

prone to be infected with HIV and therefore to AIDS Related Complex

(ARC) in about five years. The study maintains that with the prone to

HIV and AIDS Related Complex absenteeism could almost double from the

present figure.

While absenteeism could be countered by the management of the

respective organizations by deploying more persons, the manpower cost

is likely to go up by at least 20 per cent taking into account

training, relocation ,costs etc., the study maintains. It further

states that there can be an increases in the reates of accidents too

as a consequence of AIDS.

On the age pattern, the study maintains that the risk behaviour is

significantly associated with age. The high risk group is the 22-32

age group and secondly in 23 -27 age group. But more than 60 per cent

of the people with high risk behaviour fall within the age group of

23-32. Risk behaviour is significantly associated with education -

higher the education more the 'No' Risk group and less the 'High'

Risk group; risk and income are significantly associated -the higher

the income more the risk behaviour; risk behaviour and skill level

are significantly associated ; a strong association is found between

skill level and leave on loss of pay. The study maintains that the

productive age, income and skill level increase high risk behaviour

whereas education decreases the same.

The study concludes that if the organized sector in the state , which

at the present cared less about the risk associated with HIV, were to

lay emphasis on educating the workers on the MPS behaviour and

related aspect, they could save enormously from the medical cost , as

well as from the bottomline, which otherwise they would have

expended. This excluding the training cost which they would lose if a

skilled worker were to be lost permanently and be replaced by a new

one.

The study quotes estimates of economists and sociologists who claim

that there has been a 10 to 50 per cent drop in productivity in HIV

infected workers. Taking a look at the potential losses due to AIDS

in Tamil Nadu, the study mentions there has been a loss of Rs.71,734

million in output to the society ; the cost to the industries has

been pegged at Rs.13,584 million while the loss of income to the

workers has been pegged at Rs.9780 million.

Surprisingly the losses projected in the study conducted in

1994 ,viz, the loss of output , loss of income and cost to industry

is close to actuals at present. On the whole, the study stated that

the state suffered a possible loss in output of Rs. One thousand

million in 1994, the same could go up to Rs.3 thousand million in

1997 , it is likely to go up to almost Rs. 17 thousand million. The

cost to industry from a nil position was projected to go up to

Rs.2000 million by 2000 while the loss of income to the workers was

projected to touch a little than Rs.2000 million.

Dr. Sankaran claims that the organized sector will have to spruce up

its effort in preventing and containing AIDS. By such an exercise not

only will they be able to save themselves, they would help further in

maintaining the economy of the state. " So far there has been a

lackadaisical attitude as far the organized sector is concerned. And

this will seemingly tell on the economy of the state, for the

workers ,both skilled and non-skilled, employed in this sector have

been assured of a secured wage and the like making possible the

chances of MPS behaviour increasing. Which in turn will affect the

economy of both the industries and the state, " Dr. Sankaran adds.

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