A bird flu pandemic is unavoidable,

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http://www.interfax.cn/showfeature.asp?aid=10029

Bird flu pandemic might begin in S.-E Asia -senior Russian official

Moscow. Feb 15

(Interfax) - A bird flu pandemic is unavoidable, said Russian Chief Sanitary

Official Gennady Onishchenko.

" It all depends on where the pandemic viral strain will appear. The story

of bird flu began in South-Eastern Asia and I think this time it will be no

different, " Onishchenko told a news conference on Tuesday.

The situation will be more favorable if the strain was to appear in Russia's Siberia,

because the density of the population there is very low, he said.

Big cities, where international airlines arrive from all over the world are

highly susceptible to the virus, he said. The risk of contracting bird flu will

also be very high for people using underground transport, he said.

Mathematical models of casualties, including human losses in case of a bird flu

pandemic have already been developed, he said.

" And the figures calculated by our

mathematicians and epidemiologists are almost apocalyptical - hundreds of

millions, " he said. If a pandemic breaks out, the most

effective measures will be to ban " all transportations and wear

masks, " he said.

The Russian Federal Consumer Monitoring Service is taking the necessary

protective measures, he said. Poultry farms will be recommended to work in a

" closed mode, " use safe fodder and prevent contacts between domestic

and wild fowl, he said.

Testing of a Russian developed bird flu vaccine on volunteers is expected to

begin in April, Onishchenko also announced.

" I was promised that tests on volunteers will be conducted sometime at the

end of April, " he told a Tuesday news conference.

Onishchenko said the tests will last for five weeks, to see how the human

immunity system reacts to the vaccine.

Plans are afoot to make 80,000-100,000 doses of vaccine, in case bird flu

spreads among humans in Russia,

Onishchenko said.

" However, it is my brightest dream for 2006 that these 80,000-100,000

doses would be destroyed as unnecessary, " he said.

Onishchenko added that the migration of birds from Indo-China and Africa to

Siberia and North Russia will begin in two

weeks.

" Birds will be flying from Africa to Crimea and further on to Astrakhan, Kalmykia, Orenburg

region, across Siberia to Yakutia. And also

from South to North America and further on to

Chukotka, " he said.

Onishchenko said that a vaccine against bird flu is also being readied for

production. The laboratory that has developed the vaccine is ready to expand

production, " but the question is who is going to pay for it, " he

said.

Onishchenko said that about 100 million doses of bird vaccine are expected to

be made available for poultry.

Onishchenko reminded the news conference that 166 people around the world have

contracted bird flu since 2003, and that 72 of them have died.