says mutation in progress

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Biologist Thinks Bird Flu is Almost Ready to Become Pandemic

Date Published: Wednesday, March 8th, 2006

A prominent biologist who has studied previous outbreaks of flu

pandemics believes the strain of H5N1 virus is rapidly mutating and

may soon become even more deadly. The biologist, ,

issued a press release discussing the mutatation of the virus which

is below.

(PRWEB) March 8, 2006 — Scientists have now verified through gene

sequencing that the H5N1 virus has been rapidly mutating and evolving

towards a strain that will be deadly for humans. Six months ago

scientists estimated that the H5N1 virus needed to make about five

changes to it's gene structure for it to be deadly for humans. Now it

requires only one last change.

The present strains of avian influenza (bird flu) are mainly

infecting only birds, with only a relatively small number of humans

being infected. The reason for the drastic preparations now being

made by most countries in the world to protect themselves from this

virus is that the H5N1 virus still has a very high mortality rate. It

can kill up to 100% of domestic chickens and at present can kill an

alarming 55% of people that become infected. If a pandemic occurs

from a virus with even one quarter of this mortality rate then the

world consequences will be horrendous.

From the World Health Organization statistics only 190 people have

been infected since 2003 with the H5N1 virus and of these 92 have

died. Most of these people had some direct contact with infected

chickens of some kind. Some inefficient human to human transmission

has also occurred in some cases.

It appears that it is inevitable that a bird flu pandemic will

eventually occur. Some scientists expect that the last genetic change

needed for efficient human to human transmission by the H5N1 virus

may occur when migrating birds carrying the H5N1 virus begin their

return journey in Spring. (Northern hemisphere). This means that

there is a possibility that a pandemic could occur within two months.

The H5N1 bird flu virus has now spread to at least 40 countries

around the world. The general unhygienic practices combined with

poorly developed health systems in some of these countries will

create many opportunities for the last genetic change needed for the

H5N1 virus to spread from humans to humans as easily as the common

cold. It is likely that this change could occur several times in

different countries. If it occurs in an underdeveloped country then

there will be little chance of detecting it or stopping it from

spreading worldwide.

It is estimated that when the H5N1 virus changes to an efficient

human to human strain that it would only take three weeks for human

H5N1 virus outbreaks to occur everywhere around the world. Computer

models from the Los Alamos laboratory predict that it will only take

another three to six weeks for the pandemic to spread completely

through a country and reach it's peak infection rate. This rapid rate

of spreading infection will be due to the international and domestic

plane transport system. Since H5N1 has an incubation period of two to

ten days then it will be impossible to screen infected but still

contagious passengers. Depending on the country it originates in, a

contagious and deadly H5N1 virus could be seeded around the world

before health authorities are aware that a pandemic has started. The

World Health Organization has stated that all health systems in every

country will be overwhelmed and infected people will have to be cared

for at home.

Apart from the direct consequences of large numbers of infected

people dying, a potentially worst catastrophe will also occur. Recent

surveys have shown that only 30% to 50 % of workers would show up for

work if a pandemic occurred. Combined this with 50% of willing

workers being infected and others being quarantined then the

workforce will be seriously deleted.

It would be very prudent to expect essential supplies and services of

any kind will be in very short supply throughout the main wave of the

pandemic. This may occur throughout the whole world at the same time.

If you think about the possible nightmare consequences of this then

you will realize the importance of stocking up your own personal

supplies now. Panic buying will ensure that no stocks will be

available when the pandemic begins. There is a series of important

items to help protect you from the virus which can be found at

http://www.bird-flu-influenza.com.

US officials are now going state to start telling communities to

prepare for a six week quarantine. Ontario is bringing in legislation

to fine absentee qualified health workers $100,000 and one jail for

each day absent. Australian local councils are all attending

government sponsored bird flu workshops. These isolated government

actions suggests something may be happening soon.

Information from governments to the public is being suppressed and

downplayed to prevent panic. The Australian government will not

release information to the public on how to prepare for a pandemic

and look after infected family members until a pandemic starts. By

then it will be too late to buy stocks and understand what to do.

This is not a normal flu.

By

Biologist and Author of the Bird Flu Survival Guide (www.bird-flu-

influenza.com)

http://www.newsinferno.com/archives/939