Worldwide flu pandemic is inevitable

[Guest guest]

Worldwide flu pandemic is inevitable

UB researchers discuss planning and preparing for potential outbreak

By ARTHUR PAGE

Assistant Vice President

Whether or not it arrives on the wings of a bird, UB influenza

experts are underscoring the importance of advancing research aimed

at improving vaccine production and creating new ways to attack

viruses if the United States is to be successful in combating the

inevitable: a worldwide flu pandemic.

The world is " due " for such a pandemic since they tend to occur

several times each century and the last one was the 1968-69 global

outbreak of the Hong Kong influenza, said , UB

Distinguished Professor and chief of the Division of Infectious

Diseases, Department of Medicine.

" We can say with certainty that there will be another epidemic, " he

noted. " We just don't know when or what flu. "

was among UB medical experts joining Erie County Health

Department representatives in an " avian flu summit " held on Saturday

by Rep. M. Reynolds to advise him on planning and preparation

for a potential avian flu outbreak.

" The new national strategy for addressing pandemic influenza laid out

three priorities: prevention, protection and preparation, " Reynolds

said. " It is vital that we maintain an open dialogue between local

leaders, public health officials and researchers to ensure that all

necessary steps are taken to meet these priorities. "

Also representing UB were L. Dunn, vice president for health

sciences; Bruce A. Holm, senior vice provost and executive director

of UB's New York State Center of Excellence in Bioinformatics and

Life Sciences; and V. Lee, M.D., professor of medicine.

They voiced support of President Bush's plan to seek $7.1 billion in

emergency funding from Congress to prevent and combat an influenza

pandemic because of the resources it will bring to bear on advancing

the nation's influenza preparedness. They said Congress and the

public should not think the investment " wasn't worth it " if a bird

flu pandemic fails to develop.

Questions were raised about scenarios, such as marshalling efforts to

develop supplies of an effective vaccine only to be confronted by not

having enough syringes or personnel to administer the doses. Another

scenario discussed was the need in a pandemic to implement quarantine

measures equivalent to military law. While such measures helped to

quell the 2002 SARS outbreak in China, they likely would be

problematic in America when citizens are told they can not go to

church, the grocery store or an NFL game.

Dunn told Reynolds that UB is positioned—with its emphasis on

multidisciplinary research and its strategic strength in mitigation

and response to extreme events identified through the UB 2020

planning process—to provide a cross-disciplinary platform focusing on

preparedness for such events, whether they are earthquakes,

hurricanes, terrorist attacks or flu pandemics.

" It could be bird flu today, " he noted. " Who knows what it will be

tomorrow. "

Lee has been predicting in recent years—and most recently as a guest

on the nationally televised Montel Show—that the stage has

been set for a worldwide outbreak of bird flu.

While widespread media reports in recent weeks have chimed in, Lee

said that to date, with bird flu affecting birds in several countries

and more than 100 cases identified in humans in Asia, " this remains

an avian problem, not a human pandemic. " The potential for the latter

will emerge when and if a case is identified in which the flu has

been spread efficiently from human to human.

Lee said the avian flu likely is being spread around the globe by

migrating birds and illicit traffic in exotic birds, noting that

southern Africa is on the world's major bird migration routes and is

the spot where the current bird flu virus was first recognized and is

likely to be diagnosed next.

If avian flu arrives in Western New York, he added, it could be in a

flock of geese landing in a swamp, not in airline passengers like

those who carried SARS to Toronto.

Noting that only $500,000 has been allocated to date to the National

Park Service for such purposes, Lee asked: " Who's doing animal

surveillance? "

" There is no other way to deal with this other than paying attention

and looking for it, " he said. And while it's important to train and,

if possible, protect first responders, Lee noted that in the case of

avian flu, " the first responders will be the veterinarian or vet

tech, " not physicians and EMS personnel.

The UB experts stressed the importance of developing means to make

adequate supplies of vaccines quickly for specific new human flu

variations, develop vaccines against a range of viruses that have not

yet surfaced and create all-purpose vaccines that would protect

against many flu strains.

They discussed research using cell cultures, not chicken eggs, to

produce vaccines and new approaches to anti-viral therapy that target

not the mutating surface proteins, but virus components that do not

change. Holm said research to that end is under way by researchers

affiliated with the Center of Excellence.

http://www.buffalo.edu/reporter/vol37/vol37n10/articles/BirdFlu.html