Short-Term School Closures May Worsen Flu Pandemics

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Short-Term School Closures May Worsen Flu Pandemics

ScienceDaily (Dec. 31, 2009) — Closing schools for less than two weeks during a

flu pandemic may increase infection rates and prolong an epidemic, say

University of Pittsburgh researchers in a study published ahead-of-print and

online in the Journal of Public Health Management and Practice. The findings,

developed from a series of computer simulations based on U.S. census data,

indicate that schools may need to be closed for at least eight weeks in order to

significantly decrease the spread of infection.

The value of school closures has been debated as a possible strategy to stem or

slow the current H1N1 influenza pandemic. Indeed, hundreds of schools across the

country have been closed at different periods during 2009 for fear the virus

would spread more quickly if they stayed open.

" Although closing schools may seem like a reasonable way to slow the spread of

flu, we found that it was not effective unless sustained for at least eight

weeks after implementation, " said study lead author, Bruce Lee, M.D., M.B.A.,

assistant professor or medicine, epidemiology and biomedical informatics,

University of Pittsburgh. Closing schools quickly at the start of an outbreak

was much less important than keeping them closed continually throughout the

epidemic, he added.

According to study authors, short-duration school closures can increase

transmission rates by returning susceptible students back to school in the

middle of an epidemic when they are most vulnerable to infection.

The study also found that identifying sick students individually and keeping

them from attending school had minimal impact on an epidemic. In addition, there

were no significant differences between individual school closures and

system-wide closures in mitigating an epidemic.

The study was based on an agent-based computer simulation model of Allegheny

County, Pa., that represented the county's population, school systems,

workplaces, households and communities. Simulations were based on the movement

of residents each weekday from their households to designated workplaces or

schools, and included 1.2 million people & #8213;200,000 of whom were school-aged

children. The study also included more than 500,000 households and nearly 300

schools.

Co-authors of the study include T. Brown, Ph.D., Pittsburgh Supercomputing

Center; Philip Cooley, M.S., Wheaton, M.A., and Diane Wagener, Ph.D.,

RTI International; Voorhees, M.D., M.P.H., Allegheny County Health

Department; and Maggie Potter, J.D., Stebbins, M.D., M. P.H.,

Grefenstette, Ph.D., Shanta Zimmer, M.D., Zimmerman, M.D., M.P.H.,

Tina-Marie Assi, M.P.H., , M.P.H., and S. Burke, M.D.,

University of Pittsburgh.

The study is part of the University of Pittsburgh Models of Infectious Disease

Agents Study (MIDAS) funded by the National Institutes of Health.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/12/091230152422.htm