Re: Re: Possible Human to Human Transmission in Iraq

[Guest guest]

I just attended yet another pan flu presentation today in my district and there was a question about whether or not there is a risk to the soldiers in Iraq. The presenter, who is an epidemiologist, pointed out that right now avain flu is contracted by close contact with infected chickens and their feces through slaughtering, living with them, etc. Our soldiers are at low risk of contracting avain flu because they aren't in that kind of situation. So the chance of them getting it and bringing to the US is very low. Of course, that will all change if it goes human to human.

Cat~www.niteflytes.us

[Flu] Re: Possible Human to Human Transmission in Iraq

This is a great post! Thanks. Pestilence does seem to follow war and here we have a fine example. Iraq will indeed make any WHO effort to stamp out this flu very difficult. Further, there are all those American soldiers who might bring it back to the States. Anyone got any ideas on how muslim terrorists would react to a WHO effort?> > "We're classifying this as a preliminary positive case, which is > what we're using to describe the cases in Turkey, so that we can > react as if it is a confirmed H5N1 case," WHO spokeswoman > Cheng said from Geneva.

[Guest guest]

In einer eMail vom 01.02.2006 02:45:33 Westeuropäische Normalzeit schreibt lynn@...:

>I think that every time that there is an outbreak there is a chance that it has >changed and is now able to pass easily human to human. I think WHO is still >looking at that aspect of the Iraq situation.

yes, we saw that in Turkey. However I wonder whether these human cases are really important for the virus. Maybe there are many cat2cat or pig2pig cases already

or the virus mutates outside the human body.

And then, these Iraq,Tuekey cases are minor compared with China,Indonesia,

[Guest guest]

I think that every time that there is an outbreak there is a chance that it has changed and is now able to pass easily human to human. I think WHO is still looking at that aspect of the Iraq situation.

[Flu] Re: Possible Human to Human Transmission in Iraq

This is a great post! Thanks. Pestilence does seem to follow war and here we have a fine example. Iraq will indeed make any WHO effort to stamp out this flu very difficult. Further, there are all those American soldiers who might bring it back to the States. Anyone got any ideas on how muslim terrorists would react to a WHO effort?> > "We're classifying this as a preliminary positive case, which is > what we're using to describe the cases in Turkey, so that we can > react as if it is a confirmed H5N1 case," WHO spokeswoman > Cheng said from Geneva.

[Guest guest]

most pandemics don't occur as direct b2h2h. The bird-virus-DNA is too much

different from the human-virus-DNA. Often, (but not always) there are intermediate

hosts like pigs,horses etc. Pig-virus-DNA is somehow between bird and human.

(I'm no expert, just my impression from what I've read)

The mutations from Turkey didn't occur in east-Asia AFAIK. I assume, that the virus

mutated inside the birds before it went to humans.

[Guest guest]

I agree. It could happen any time. I think I'll go do my taxes. I need a break from pan flu for awhile and doing my taxes actually appeals to me more than thinking about the flu!

Cat~www.niteflytes.us

[Flu] Re: Possible Human to Human Transmission in Iraq

This is a great post! Thanks. Pestilence does seem to follow war and here we have a fine example. Iraq will indeed make any WHO effort to stamp out this flu very difficult. Further, there are all those American soldiers who might bring it back to the States. Anyone got any ideas on how muslim terrorists would react to a WHO effort?> > "We're classifying this as a preliminary positive case, which is > what we're using to describe the cases in Turkey, so that we can > react as if it is a confirmed H5N1 case," WHO spokeswoman > Cheng said from Geneva.

[Guest guest]

Yes I agree completely with Turkey being minor to China. However since China has NOT been transparent, and has NOT shared samples of their virus outbreaks, we really can not judge how much H2H has gone on. So far we know from turkey that it has changed from what we knew earlier which makes it easier to pass H2H. Thanks to China and others we DON"T know when that change occurred for sure or even how many people have been infected. We do know for sure that it has been passing H2H in many places and every time it does it brings the virus closer to a pandemic. I'm not that cat2cat or pig2pig would effect how the virus effects humans. Do you have information that points to that?

Lynn

Re: [Flu] Re: Possible Human to Human Transmission in Iraq

In einer eMail vom 01.02.2006 02:45:33 Westeuropäische Normalzeit schreibt lynn@...:

>I think that every time that there is an outbreak there is a chance that it has >changed and is now able to pass easily human to human. I think WHO is still >looking at that aspect of the Iraq situation.

yes, we saw that in Turkey. However I wonder whether these human cases are really important for the virus. Maybe there are many cat2cat or pig2pig cases already

or the virus mutates outside the human body.

And then, these Iraq,Tuekey cases are minor compared with China,Indonesia,

[Guest guest]

one of the 10 whole genes of H5N1 could be exchanged ("reassortment")

or just a single amino acid (out of the 4442) . ("recombination")

the first was how the 1958 and 1967 pandemics occurred, the latter happened in 1918.

[Guest guest]

I'm not a medical person but I've heard it explained so many times that I think I have a clear understanding of how it works, in layman's terms. I think you're on the right track. In the flu scenario, for example, one of the ways for the virus to change is by infecting pigs and then jumping to humans from pigs. But an intermediate host isn't necessary. Someone could have another strain of flu, a seasonal type flu, and contract avian flu. The avian flu virus could mutate using the seasonal flu virus and turn into a strain of avian flu that is human-to-human transmissable. It's a matter of being in the right place at the right time (from the avian flu virus' perspective).

Whether it jumps from pigs, another animal or mutates in a human it's important to remember that the person who gets the first human-to-human transmissable avain flu will probably not have contracted it from another human, however they will be infecting everyone who comes in close contact with them and none of those people will have any advance warning that they are being infected. And another odd thing about viruses...when it happens it won't necessarily just happen in one host. It could happen through several different mutations in several different hosts in a short period of time. Once the conditions are right for the mutations to occur to create a pandemic it's my opionion that human-to-human outbreaks will be occuring simutaneously in areas where there has been a high rate of avain flu. Like I said, that's just my opinion, based on historical accounts I've read about smallpox and past flu pandemics.

Cat~www.niteflytes.us

[Flu] Re: Possible Human to Human Transmission in Iraq

Maybe Cat or someone closer to an MD can comment on this but my understanding is that many human and other-species viruses mutate as a result of replacing existing viruses with a piece of their DNA or replacing a piece of their DNA with a piece of a host's virus.Isn't that how the different strains of HIV/AIDS have occurred? They are still HIV/AIDS but some of the strains are drug resistant or just different enough that their origins can be traced back to a particular area or a "zero" patient.So it would be possible and just as likely that if a person did catch something ... using H5N1 as an example ... from a separate species (in the case of H5N1 a bird of some type), and they had an existing illness that was viral in nature such as the common cold, that it would be possible for H5N1 to mixed it up (sorry for the laymen's terms here) with the cold virus and mutate to something that had similarities to the other virus, in this case possibly becoming as communicable as the original cold virus in our scenario.That's a bit scrambled and not at all in medical terms, but that is how I understand it and remember it from college biology.Someone correct me if I'm wrong or if you have a better explanation.Kathy in FL>> most pandemics don't occur as direct b2h2h. The bird-virus-DNA is too much> different from the human-virus-DNA. Often, (but not always) there are > intermediate> hosts like pigs,horses etc. Pig-virus-DNA is somehow between bird and human.> (I'm no expert, just my impression from what I've read)> > The mutations from Turkey didn't occur in east-Asia AFAIK. I assume, that > the virus> mutated inside the birds before it went to humans.>

[Guest guest]

The normal flu outbreak time for the US isn't the only time flu viruses are circulating in the world. I don't know if the flu virus could use other viruses to mutate. Other types of viruses don't genetically match the flu virus so I think it would be unlikely with some virues and just not possible with others. A very crude comparison would be trying to cross-breed cats and dogs. Some genetic material just doesn't mix. But that's getting into an area of expertise that's beyond me.

Cat~www.niteflytes.us

[Flu] Re: Possible Human to Human Transmission in Iraq

Which I guess is then the most likely time ... though not the only time ... that we could see a H5N1 mutation would be during a "normal" flu outbreak. (about November through March of any given year)There would either be a higher group of potential hosts to mutate in or a greater ratio of potential virus to mutate with, depending on your perspective.But can it be any viral infection or can it only be a flu virus?For instance, the common cold knows no real season.What about viral infections that affect the gastro area of the body?That would explain that type of mutation. But what causes the amino acid type of mutation ... "recombination"?Kathy in FL>> I'm not a medical person but I've heard it explained so many times that I think I have a clear understanding of how it works, in layman's terms. I think you're on the right track. In the flu scenario, for example, one of the ways for the virus to change is by infecting pigs and then jumping to humans from pigs. But an intermediate host isn't necessary. Someone could have another strain of flu, a seasonal type flu, and contract avian flu. The avian flu virus could mutate using the seasonal flu virus and turn into a

[Guest guest]

As to H5N1 among pigs in Iraq, I doubt you'll find any herds of pigs in that country. Pork is forbidden in Islam; and even the handling of pigs is taboo. However, there are all those chickens .... ez <mamkmm2@...> wrote: Which I guess is then the most likely time ... though not the only time ... that we could see a H5N1 mutation would be during a "normal" flu outbreak. (about November through March of any given year)There would either be a higher group of potential hosts to mutate in or a greater ratio of potential virus to mutate with, depending on your perspective.But can it be any viral infection or can it only be a flu virus?For instance, the common cold knows no real season.What about viral infections that affect the gastro area of the

body?That would explain that type of mutation. But what causes the amino acid type of mutation ... "recombination"?Kathy in FL>> I'm not a medical person but I've heard it explained so many times that I think I have a clear understanding of how it works, in layman's terms. I think you're on the right track. In the flu scenario, for example, one of the ways for the virus to change is by infecting pigs and then jumping to humans from pigs. But an intermediate host isn't necessary. Someone could have another strain of flu, a seasonal type flu, and contract avian flu. The avian flu virus could mutate using the seasonal flu virus and turn into a . Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie . Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind. -Dr.Seuss . It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke Ellington

[Guest guest]

In einer eMail vom 03.02.2006 06:18:42 Westeuropäische Normalzeit schreibt rboylern@...:

>A virus can't mutate outside its host. It needs host DNA to mutate and replicate.

yes, or another host (cats here). Sorry if that was unclear.

[Guest guest]

A virus can't mutate outside its host. It needs host DNA to mutate and replicate.sterten@... wrote: In einer eMail vom 01.02.2006 02:45:33 Westeuropäische Normalzeit schreibt lynn@...: >I think that every time that there is an outbreak there is a chance that it has >changed and is now able to pass easily human to human. I think WHO is still >looking at that aspect of the Iraq situation. yes, we saw that in Turkey. However I wonder whether these human cases are really

important for the virus. Maybe there are many cat2cat or pig2pig cases already or the virus mutates outside the human body. And then, these Iraq,Tuekey cases are minor compared with China,Indonesia, . Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie . Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind. -Dr.Seuss . It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke Ellington

[Guest guest]

Exactly, and every time a person gets the

virus flu it has a host.

From:

Flu [mailto:Flu ] On Behalf Of

Sent: Thursday, February 02, 2006

9:16 PM

Flu

Subject: Re: [Flu] Re:

Possible Human to Human Transmission in Iraq

A virus can't mutate outside its host. It needs host DNA to

mutate and replicate.

sterten@...

wrote:

In einer eMail vom 01.02.2006

02:45:33 Westeuropäische Normalzeit schreibt lynn@...:

>I think that every time that there is

an outbreak there is a chance that it has >changed and is now able to pass

easily human to human. I think WHO is still >looking at that aspect of the Iraq situation.

yes, we saw that in Turkey. However

I wonder whether these human cases are really important for the virus. Maybe

there are many cat2cat or pig2pig cases already

or the virus mutates outside the human

body.

And then, these Iraq,Tuekey cases are minor compared with China,Indonesia,

.. Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie

.. Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who

mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind. -Dr.Seuss

.. It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke Ellington

[Guest guest]

Basically, that's how it works. ez <mamkmm2@...> wrote: Maybe Cat or someone closer to an MD can comment on this but my understanding is that many human and other-species viruses mutate as a result of replacing existing viruses with a piece of their DNA or replacing a piece of their DNA with a piece of a host's virus.Isn't that how the different strains of HIV/AIDS have occurred? They are still HIV/AIDS but some of the strains are drug resistant or just different enough that their origins can be traced back to a particular area or a "zero" patient.So it would be possible and just as likely that if a person did catch something ... using H5N1 as an example ... from a separate species (in the case of H5N1 a bird of some type), and they had an existing illness that was viral in

nature such as the common cold, that it would be possible for H5N1 to mixed it up (sorry for the laymen's terms here) with the cold virus and mutate to something that had similarities to the other virus, in this case possibly becoming as communicable as the original cold virus in our scenario.That's a bit scrambled and not at all in medical terms, but that is how I understand it and remember it from college biology.Someone correct me if I'm wrong or if you have a better explanation.Kathy in FL>> most pandemics don't occur as direct b2h2h. The bird-virus-DNA is too much> different from the human-virus-DNA. Often, (but not always) there are > intermediate> hosts like pigs,horses etc. Pig-virus-DNA is somehow between bird and human.> (I'm no expert, just my impression from what I've read)>

> The mutations from Turkey didn't occur in east-Asia AFAIK. I assume, that > the virus> mutated inside the birds before it went to humans.> . Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie . Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind.

-Dr.Seuss . It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke Ellington