Re: Does the fact that it is spreading really matter right now...

[Guest guest]

In einer eMail vom 14.02.2006 00:23:12 Westeuropäische Normalzeit schreibt rboylern@...:

>The important thing to remember is that H5N1 is a disease of birds, most notably of >wild birds infecting flocks of chickens.

ahh, .

The important thing to remember is the pandemic potential,of course.

Humans are more important than birds.

We would not be here if we could be certain that H5N1 would remain

a desease of birds. See the name of the group.

Guenter.

[Guest guest]

In einer eMail vom 14.02.2006 06:18:46 Westeuropäische Normalzeit schreibt rboylern@...:

>Yes, it could be tomorrow or next year or never. There's nobody to believe about >this because it's entirely unpredictable. I live in earthquake country. A serious >earthquake in San Francisco could kill thousands. Yes, I'm as prepared as I can be >for such an event (also unpredictable) but I can't live my life in a panic about it.

it's not entirely unpredictable, only hard to predict. But we do have signs.

I make it 10% probability that we'll have a pandemic this year.

I'd like to see other people's estimates !

[Guest guest]

In einer eMail vom 14.02.2006 06:56:34 Westeuropäische Normalzeit schreibt rboylern@...:

>Just a rough guess, but I'd say maybe 5%, depending on bird migrations; though I >think we'll see higher incidence in more rural areas where people are in close >contact with infected chickens and other poultry. I'd imagine, though, that in the >more "industrialized" countries appropriate protective measures would be taken so >that the virus doesn't infect people. This has been a problem in more "third world" >areas. How fast it would spread to more urban areas is much harder, I think, to even >estimate.

I was talking about efficient h2h, not b2h. If this happens, then the cities will

probably be at greater risk than the rural areas.

Whether you can contain the spread in industrialized countries, that's unclear.

It didn't work in 1918 and experts are pessimistic about that AFAIK.

There are some computer-simulations..., but it probably depends, how contagious the

virus would be, how well it survives in the surroundings.

I had made a poll at curevents, where 80% (40 from 50) believed that

we will have a pandemic this year !

[Guest guest]

In einer eMail vom 14.02.2006 07:16:30 Westeuropäische Normalzeit schreibt rboylern@...:

>H2H - I couldn't even guess. There's not a clue about how fast, or even if, H5N1 will >mutate to a h2h form. It's kind of a crap shoot at this point, sad to say.

we _must_ try to estimate it nevertheless.

Some experts are trying to give estimates, but only anonymously.

They somehow don't want to give numbers in public...

We do hear warnungs from WHO,UNO etc. but without numbers we can't

figure out how serious they are.

[Guest guest]

Plus, it has not remained exclusively a disease of birds. Humans ARE getting it, just not H2H at a pandemic rate.

Cat~www.niteflytes.us

Re: [Flu] Does the fact that it is spreading really matter right now...

In einer eMail vom 14.02.2006 00:23:12 Westeuropäische Normalzeit schreibt rboylern@...:

>The important thing to remember is that H5N1 is a disease of birds, most notably of >wild birds infecting flocks of chickens.

ahh, .

The important thing to remember is the pandemic potential,of course.

Humans are more important than birds.

We would not be here if we could be certain that H5N1 would remain

a desease of birds. See the name of the group.

Guenter.

[Guest guest]

>Yes it does matter. It matters because when the H5N1 virus spreads

human to human people will get sick. When a virus in inhaled and/or

eaten ( Someone coughed on food ) it directially finds a host cell

and takes over and spreads all through your body killing cells

>

> In einer eMail vom 14.02.2006 00:23:12 Westeuropäische Normalzeit

schreibt

> rboylern@...:

>

> >The important thing to remember is that H5N1 is a disease of

birds, most

> notably of >wild birds infecting flocks of chickens.

>

>

>

> ahh, .

> The important thing to remember is the pandemic potential,of

course.

> Humans are more important than birds.

> We would not be here if we could be certain that H5N1 would remain

> a desease of birds. See the name of the group.

>

> Guenter.

>

[Guest guest]

>Yes it does matter. It matters because when the H5N1 virus spreads

human to human people will get sick. When a virus in inhaled and/or

eaten ( Someone coughed on food ) it directially finds a host cell

and takes over and spreads all through your body killing cells

>

> In einer eMail vom 14.02.2006 00:23:12 Westeuropäische Normalzeit

schreibt

> rboylern@...:

>

> >The important thing to remember is that H5N1 is a disease of

birds, most

> notably of >wild birds infecting flocks of chickens.

>

>

>

> ahh, .

> The important thing to remember is the pandemic potential,of

course.

> Humans are more important than birds.

> We would not be here if we could be certain that H5N1 would remain

> a desease of birds. See the name of the group.

>

> Guenter.

>

[Guest guest]

What you say is true, Guenter; but it's still important to maintain a certain perspective about the whole mess. It sometimes bothers me that people become alarmists. Let's rely on the facts we have at hand, as scanty as they may be. Burgess <jonathan_burgess@...> wrote: >Yes it does matter. It matters because when the H5N1 virus spreads human to human people will get sick. When a virus in inhaled and/or eaten ( Someone coughed on food ) it directially finds a host cell and takes over and spreads all through your body killing cells> > In einer eMail vom 14.02.2006 00:23:12 Westeuropäische Normalzeit schreibt > rboylern@...:> > >The important thing to remember is that H5N1 is a disease of

birds, most > notably of >wild birds infecting flocks of chickens.> > > > ahh, . > The important thing to remember is the pandemic potential,of course. > Humans are more important than birds.> We would not be here if we could be certain that H5N1 would remain> a desease of birds. See the name of the group.> > Guenter.> . Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie . Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind. -Dr.Seuss . It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke Ellington

[Guest guest]

But it has infected human who've had close and prolonged contact with infected chickens. It's not uncommon for people to contract diseases from animals, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the infection will spread from person to person. This is particularly true in the case of viruses. At the same time, viruses are wily "creatures" and it's anybody's guess when/if they can mutate from animal-human transmission and then to human-human transmission. As to H5N1, it appears that the mechanisms of mutuation of this particular strain are not fully understood yet, which makes the situation more than a little worrisome.Cat~ <niteflytes@...> wrote: Plus, it has not remained exclusively a disease of birds. Humans ARE getting it, just not H2H at a

pandemic rate. Cat~www.niteflytes.us Re: [Flu] Does the fact that it is spreading really matter right now... In einer eMail vom 14.02.2006 00:23:12

Westeuropäische Normalzeit schreibt rboylern@...: >The important thing to remember is that H5N1 is a disease of birds, most notably of >wild birds infecting flocks of chickens. ahh, . The important thing to remember is the pandemic potential,of course. Humans are more important than birds. We would not be here if we could be certain that H5N1 would remain a desease of birds. See the name of the group. Guenter. . Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie . Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind. -Dr.Seuss . It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke Ellington

[Guest guest]

Just a rough guess, but I'd say maybe 5%, depending on bird migrations; though I think we'll see higher incidence in more rural areas where people are in close contact with infected chickens and other poultry. I'd imagine, though, that in the more "industrialized" countries appropriate protective measures would be taken so that the virus doesn't infect people. This has been a problem in more "third world" areas. How fast it would spread to more urban areas is much harder, I think, to even estimate.sterten@... wrote: In einer eMail vom 14.02.2006 06:18:46 Westeuropäische Normalzeit schreibt rboylern@...: >Yes, it could be tomorrow or next year or never. There's nobody to believe about >this because it's entirely unpredictable. I live in earthquake country. A serious >earthquake in San Francisco could kill thousands. Yes, I'm as prepared as I can be >for such an event (also unpredictable) but I can't live my life in a panic about it. it's not entirely unpredictable, only hard to predict. But we do have signs. I make it 10% probability that we'll have a pandemic this year. I'd like to see other people's estimates ! . Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie . Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind. -Dr.Seuss . It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke Ellington

[Guest guest]

I'll say 30% chance we have an H5N1 pandemic this year. I base my estimate on nothing but pure speculation.

Cat~www.niteflytes.us

Re: [Flu] Does the fact that it is spreading really matter right now...

In einer eMail vom 14.02.2006 06:18:46 Westeuropäische Normalzeit schreibt rboylern@...:

>Yes, it could be tomorrow or next year or never. There's nobody to believe about >this because it's entirely unpredictable. I live in earthquake country. A serious >earthquake in San Francisco could kill thousands. Yes, I'm as prepared as I can be >for such an event (also unpredictable) but I can't live my life in a panic about it.

it's not entirely unpredictable, only hard to predict. But we do have signs.

I make it 10% probability that we'll have a pandemic this year.

I'd like to see other people's estimates !

[Guest guest]

H2H - I couldn't even guess. There's not a clue about how fast, or even if, H5N1 will mutate to a h2h form. It's kind of a crap shoot at this point, sad to say.sterten@... wrote: In einer eMail vom 14.02.2006 06:56:34 Westeuropäische Normalzeit schreibt rboylern@...: >Just a rough guess, but I'd say maybe 5%, depending on bird migrations; though I >think we'll see higher incidence in more rural areas where people are in close >contact with infected chickens and other poultry. I'd imagine, though, that in the >more "industrialized" countries appropriate

protective measures would be taken so >that the virus doesn't infect people. This has been a problem in more "third world" >areas. How fast it would spread to more urban areas is much harder, I think, to even >estimate. I was talking about efficient h2h, not b2h. If this happens, then the cities will probably be at greater risk than the rural areas. Whether you can contain the spread in industrialized countries, that's

unclear. It didn't work in 1918 and experts are pessimistic about that AFAIK. There are some computer-simulations..., but it probably depends, how contagious the virus would be, how well it survives in the surroundings. I had made a poll at curevents, where 80% (40 from 50) believed that we will have a pandemic this year ! . Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie . Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind.

-Dr.Seuss . It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke Ellington

[Guest guest]

On Mon, 13 Feb 2006 22:10:55 -0800 (PST)

<rboylern@...> wrote:

> then the cities will probably be at greater risk than the rural areas.

According to some figures I saw a number of years ago, in Europe in the

Middle Ages, life expectancy for those who survived childhood was much

longer in the country than in towns and cities.

I think it was something like 35-40 in the city and around 65-70 in the

country. The reason given was that rural folk were exposed to far fewer

diseases than the city folk.

The life expectancy figures we usually hear of from back then was for

those who lived in towns and cities.

I'd love to know if that is in fact true.

[Guest guest]

I think there's a ten per cent chance that H5N1 will mutate and go to

H2H within the next 3 years. But I think there is still a very good

chance that it will only barely meet the qualififcations for a

pandemic. It will be mapped and stooped in its tracks. Our

technonlgy and our knowledge of these things is incalculably greater

than it it was in previous pandemics. People will die (indeed, they

already have) but I think that this will be nowhere as bad as 1918 or

other pandemics.

Pete

>

>

> In einer eMail vom 14.02.2006 07:16:30 Westeuropäische Normalzeit

schreibt

> rboylern@...:

>

> >H2H - I couldn't even guess. There's not a clue about how fast,

or even

> if, H5N1 will >mutate to a h2h form. It's kind of a crap shoot at

this point,

> sad to say.

>

>

>

>

> we _must_ try to estimate it nevertheless.

> Some experts are trying to give estimates, but only anonymously.

> They somehow don't want to give numbers in public...

>

> We do hear warnungs from WHO,UNO etc. but without numbers we can't

> figure out how serious they are.

>

[Guest guest]

Pete--if what you suggest could be true, well that would be great!

May I ask what you base your rationale on? I agree that our

knowledge and technology is superior today, but I still worry that

we just don't have enough technology, supply or knowledge to be

properly prepared--but I could well be wrong.

>

> I think there's a ten per cent chance that H5N1 will mutate and go

to

> H2H within the next 3 years. But I think there is still a very

good

> chance that it will only barely meet the qualififcations for a

> pandemic. It will be mapped and stooped in its tracks. Our

> technonlgy and our knowledge of these things is incalculably

greater

> than it it was in previous pandemics. People will die (indeed,

they

> already have) but I think that this will be nowhere as bad as 1918

or

> other pandemics.

> Pete

>

>

> >

> >

> > In einer eMail vom 14.02.2006 07:16:30 Westeuropäische Normalzeit

> schreibt

> > rboylern@:

> >

> > >H2H - I couldn't even guess. There's not a clue about how

fast,

> or even

> > if, H5N1 will >mutate to a h2h form. It's kind of a crap shoot

at

> this point,

> > sad to say.

> >

> >

> >

> >

> > we _must_ try to estimate it nevertheless.

> > Some experts are trying to give estimates, but only anonymously.

> > They somehow don't want to give numbers in public...

> >

> > We do hear warnungs from WHO,UNO etc. but without numbers we

can't

> > figure out how serious they are.

> >

>

[Guest guest]

The facts are anything but scanty, . We know a lot about

this virus and how it is spreading.

Ten facts:

1) Influenza viruses are prone to mutation by their nature

2) This virus has gone through many mutations already

3) This virus only requires two only more mutations to make it go

H2H (human to human transmissable)

4) This virus is in Africa now

5) Many or most African nations have little abiltity to control its

spread or to stop the people from killing and eating diseased birds

6) The more a flu virus spreads, the more likely it is to mutate

7) The more people who are infected, the greater the risk of the H2H

mutation occurring

8) Within six months of becoming H2H, a flu virus will typically

have spread to all major population centers

9) It is not now possible to make a vaccine for a flu virus until 6

months after the virus has become H2H

10) This virus kills 50% of those humans it infects

Fact 10 is debated at this time and the mortality rate might turn

out lower, so scratch it from the list if you want to. Fact 3 may

require more research. It was recently reported as fact and I have

not seen it refuted, but it may not be accepted by all scientists.

Fact 8 depends on where the virus goes H2H. If the virus goes H2H

in Hong Kong or Berlin or Jakarta or any major metropolitan area, it

will be all over the planet in less than six months. If it happens

in a remote village, it may take longer than six months to reach all

of the rest of the world. The rest of the facts do not seem to be

in debate.

For me, these facts are sufficient to make me alarmed about the

situation. If they don't alarm you, I suspect that there is not much

that will. Good luck.

> >Yes it does matter. It matters because when the H5N1 virus

spreads

> human to human people will get sick. When a virus in inhaled

and/or

> eaten ( Someone coughed on food ) it directially finds a host cell

> and takes over and spreads all through your body killing cells

> >

> > In einer eMail vom 14.02.2006 00:23:12 Westeuropäische

Normalzeit

> schreibt

> > rboylern@:

> >

> > >The important thing to remember is that H5N1 is a disease of

> birds, most

> > notably of >wild birds infecting flocks of chickens.

> >

> >

> >

> > ahh, .

> > The important thing to remember is the pandemic potential,of

> course.

> > Humans are more important than birds.

> > We would not be here if we could be certain that H5N1 would

remain

> > a desease of birds. See the name of the group.

> >

> > Guenter.

> >

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

>

[Guest guest]

To be honest my speculation is not based on science. And its just

that: speculation. I am not stating anything as 'fact' here. I do

believe that it is fully possible that this thing could turn out to be

worse than 1918. I am just trying to keep everything in perspective.

As much as we can forecast the worsed case scenerio, we must also

look at the best case scenerio - which perhaps is what I am saying.

Ultimately, uts too early to tell what will happen. But it is not too

early to make some preparations. On the other hand, I think its too

early to panic and get overly alarmed.

I continue to be curious about the coversage we see in the media.

Sometimes the problem seems ignored, and other times we read things

that sound too alarmist. Right now there is great disagreement

between some very credible sources as to the direction that this virus

is going in.

Only time will tell.

Pete

> > >

> > >

> > > In einer eMail vom 14.02.2006 07:16:30 Westeuropäische Normalzeit

> > schreibt

> > > rboylern@:

> > >

> > > >H2H - I couldn't even guess. There's not a clue about how

> fast,

> > or even

> > > if, H5N1 will >mutate to a h2h form. It's kind of a crap shoot

> at

> > this point,

> > > sad to say.

> > >

> > >

> > >

> > >

> > > we _must_ try to estimate it nevertheless.

> > > Some experts are trying to give estimates, but only anonymously.

> > > They somehow don't want to give numbers in public...

> > >

> > > We do hear warnungs from WHO,UNO etc. but without numbers we

> can't

> > > figure out how serious they are.

> > >

> >

>

[Guest guest]

Which technology is that, Pete? Not virology technology, as it still

takes longer to create a vaccine than it will for the virus to sweep

the earth once it goes H2H. Secondary infections, yes. We have

better protection against secondary infections. But people need to

heed the warnings and go to their doctors now to get a pneumococcal

vaccination now. And most people haven't and won't and the vast

majority of the world doesn't even have access to that level of

preventative medical care. But other than that, what? And if this

virus is like the 1918 virus, which it seems it is, the greatest

percentage of deaths will not come from secondary infections, but the

primary one. And as someone else said here, our technology is

helping the virus spread much more than it is helping to contain it.

With vastly increased human mobilization through air travel and the

much greater affluence of the population that enables world-wide

travel, we have a recipe for a wildfire. So, what technology do you

see limiting or controlling the spread of and effects of a pandemic?

> >

> >

> > In einer eMail vom 14.02.2006 07:16:30 Westeuropäische Normalzeit

> schreibt

> > rboylern@:

> >

> > >H2H - I couldn't even guess. There's not a clue about how fast,

> or even

> > if, H5N1 will >mutate to a h2h form. It's kind of a crap shoot

at

> this point,

> > sad to say.

> >

> >

> >

> >

> > we _must_ try to estimate it nevertheless.

> > Some experts are trying to give estimates, but only anonymously.

> > They somehow don't want to give numbers in public...

> >

> > We do hear warnungs from WHO,UNO etc. but without numbers we

can't

> > figure out how serious they are.

> >

>

[Guest guest]

the "facts" are hard to interpretate. Leave that to the experts.

What we need are probability estimates and expectation values.

What we need are experts, who are willing to give us these.

===================================================

In einer eMail vom 15.02.2006 06:45:06 Westeuropäische Normalzeit schreibt rboylern@...:

No. But sometimes you see words in various newspaper headlines that tend to promote panic in people. Just going through some of the news items that have been posted here will show you what I mean. Good solid factual information is the antidote to panic; and I think the print media should look to this as it would be of great service to many people. It's the facts we need, not the fear. You can't do anything with fear, but you can work with facts in a sensible way.

[Guest guest]

For me, Don, I just refuse to live my life in fear of things.. Yes, be prepared for things; but living in fear actually doesn't accomplish much.Don <DCFrench@...> wrote: The facts are anything but scanty, . We know a lot about this virus and how it is spreading.Ten facts:1) Influenza viruses are prone to mutation by their nature2) This virus has gone through many mutations already3) This virus only requires two only more mutations to make it go H2H (human to human transmissable)4) This virus is in Africa now5) Many or most African nations have little abiltity to control its spread or to stop the people from killing and eating diseased birds6) The more a flu virus spreads, the more likely it is to mutate7) The more people who are infected, the greater the risk of the H2H

mutation occurring8) Within six months of becoming H2H, a flu virus will typically have spread to all major population centers9) It is not now possible to make a vaccine for a flu virus until 6 months after the virus has become H2H10) This virus kills 50% of those humans it infectsFact 10 is debated at this time and the mortality rate might turn out lower, so scratch it from the list if you want to. Fact 3 may require more research. It was recently reported as fact and I have not seen it refuted, but it may not be accepted by all scientists. Fact 8 depends on where the virus goes H2H. If the virus goes H2H in Hong Kong or Berlin or Jakarta or any major metropolitan area, it will be all over the planet in less than six months. If it happens in a remote village, it may take longer than six months to reach all of the rest of the world. The rest of the facts do not seem to be in

debate. For me, these facts are sufficient to make me alarmed about the situation. If they don't alarm you, I suspect that there is not much that will. Good luck.> >Yes it does matter. It matters because when the H5N1 virus spreads > human to human people will get sick. When a virus in inhaled and/or > eaten ( Someone coughed on food ) it directially finds a host cell > and takes over and spreads all through your body killing

cells> > > > In einer eMail vom 14.02.2006 00:23:12 Westeuropäische Normalzeit > schreibt > > rboylern@:> > > > >The important thing to remember is that H5N1 is a disease of > birds, most > > notably of >wild birds infecting flocks of chickens.> > > > > > > > ahh, . > > The important thing to remember is the pandemic potential,of > course. > > Humans are more important than birds.> > We would not be here if we could be certain that H5N1 would remain> > a desease of birds. See the name of the group.> > > > Guenter.> >> > > > > > > >

[Guest guest]

I sometimes wonder if it's more a matter of guess-work than being able to plot out anything about estimates or expectation values at this point. We read today that infected swans have been found in your own country - on a personal level this makes me very sad for I love both swans and Germany. Now are there more infected swans? Where are they? How many are infected yet survive? How many die? How could they come into contact with flocks of chickens? What are the consequences for human beings? The questions seem endless. If some observable pattern could be perceived then some estimates and expectation values could be forthcoming. We do know one unfortunate thing, though, this virus spreads among its hosts like wildfire. And we do know that it has been people who've been in close, and probably very unhygienic, contact with infected chickens who have fallen ill. Could we make something out of this information? I don't

know.sterten@... wrote: the "facts" are hard to interpretate. Leave that to the experts. What we need are probability estimates and expectation values. What we need are experts, who are willing to give us these. =================================================== In einer eMail vom 15.02.2006 06:45:06 Westeuropäische Normalzeit schreibt rboylern@...: No. But sometimes you see words in various newspaper headlines that tend to promote panic in people. Just going

through some of the news items that have been posted here will show you what I mean. Good solid factual information is the antidote to panic; and I think the print media should look to this as it would be of great service to many people. It's the facts we need, not the fear. You can't do anything with fear, but you can work with facts in a sensible way. . Never place a period where God has placed a comma. - Gracie . Be who you are and say what you feel, because those who mind don't matter and those who matter don't mind. -Dr.Seuss . It don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. - Duke Ellington

[Guest guest]

Of course, but I don't think anyone here is suggesting anyone live in

fear. Just being fully aware of the situation, and preparing for

eventualities is all we are suggesting.

> > >Yes it does matter. It matters because when the H5N1 virus

> spreads

> > human to human people will get sick. When a virus in inhaled

> and/or

> > eaten ( Someone coughed on food ) it directially finds a host

cell

> > and takes over and spreads all through your body killing cells

> > >

> > > In einer eMail vom 14.02.2006 00:23:12 Westeuropäische

> Normalzeit

> > schreibt

> > > rboylern@:

> > >

> > > >The important thing to remember is that H5N1 is a disease of

> > birds, most

> > > notably of >wild birds infecting flocks of chickens.

> > >

> > >

> > >

> > > ahh, .

> > > The important thing to remember is the pandemic potential,of

> > course.

> > > Humans are more important than birds.

> > > We would not be here if we could be certain that H5N1 would

> remain

> > > a desease of birds. See the name of the group.

> > >

> > > Guenter.

> > >

> >

> >

> >

> >

> >

> >

> >

> >

[Guest guest]

I'm definitely on board. Don <DCFrench@...> wrote: Of course, but I don't think anyone here is suggesting anyone live in fear. Just being fully aware of the situation, and preparing for eventualities is all we are suggesting.> > >Yes it does matter. It matters because when the H5N1 virus > spreads > > human to human people will get sick. When a virus in inhaled > and/or > > eaten ( Someone coughed on food ) it directially finds a host cell > > and takes over and spreads all through your body killing cells> > > > > > In einer eMail vom 14.02.2006 00:23:12 Westeuropäische > Normalzeit > > schreibt > > > rboylern@:> > > > > > >The important thing to remember is that H5N1 is a disease of > > birds, most > > > notably

of >wild birds infecting flocks of chickens.> > > > > > > > > > > > ahh, . > > > The important thing to remember is the pandemic potential,of > > course. > > > Humans are more important than birds.> > > We would not be here if we could be certain that H5N1 would > remain> > > a desease of birds. See the name of the group.> > > > > > Guenter.> > >> > > > > > > > > > > > > > > >