The swine flu and Y2K conspiracies

February 10, 2010

I love this blog post (below) that compares the H1N1 pandemic " conspiracy " with

Y2K. He nailed two of my favorite gripes with one stone. I was a computer

professional for 30 years leading up to Y2K and was one of the people who

endorsed using 2 digits for the year field back in the sixties, with the full

knowledge that it would blow up in year 2000. We all did. We talked about it,

or rather laughed about it, knowing that we wouldn't be working in IT or at

least not for that company in 2000. But as it turns out, I was working in IT in

2000 and am well aware of the incredible expense and effort that the whole IT

world spent to fix that pervasive problem. So when I hear people say that it

was a hoax or conspiracy or at least a non-problem, I just have to laugh. A

half-trillion dollars was spent worldwide to make that problem go away. But now

the same people or people like them say that the swine flu pandemic is a

conspiracy or a hoax because nothing happened of great consequence. Well, a lot

was done to mitigate the swine flu problem too, even though it wasn't in the

cards for it to wreak the kind of damage that people in the know thought it

might (fortunately). But that doesn't mean it a deliberate hoax or conspiracy

any more than Y2K was. The unfortunate thing is that if we do get hit by a

virus that is extremely virulent, like H5N1, too many people are going to say

look back on swine flu and say that WHO is crying wolf " again " .

Anyway, here is the blog post:

http://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2010/02/similarities-h1n1-flu-pandemic-conspiracies-\

y2k-bug.html

Similarities between H1N1 flu pandemic conspiracies and the Y2K bug

February 10, 2010

Originally published in MedPage Today

by Mike Himowitz

When I read 's account of European politicians taking WHO to the

woodshed for allegedly conspiring with vaccine makers to overinflate the danger

from H1N1 pandemic flu, I was reminded of a similar — and equally silly —

argument that occurred exactly a decade ago.

Similarities between H1N1 flu pandemic conspiracies and the Y2K bug In the early

days of 2000, you may recall, skeptics around the world were crowing over the

fact that nothing awful happened on the stroke of Y2K, despite fears that the

computer systems running everything important in the world — from banks to

dialysis machines to airlines — would fail catastrophically.

The culprit 10 years ago was a shortcut many programmers had taken during the

decades before computer memory and storage became cheap commodities. Instead of

using four digits to record the year (as in 1985), they used only two digits

(85).

As long we were still in the 20th century (the 1900s), two-digit date arithmetic

would work just fine. But when the year clicked over to " 00 " and date arithmetic

started generating negative numbers, computer experts predicted there would be

hell to pay.

In fact, there was hell to pay — but we paid it ahead of time. By " we, " I refer

to the collective efforts of thousands of programmers and other IT

professionals, backed by big bucks from their employers and the government —

people who stressed themselves out for years to repair old code or replace old

computers before the stoke of midnight 2000.

As Y2K rolled in, there were plenty of computer failures, but thanks to the hard

work of the legions who prepared for it, few of them were consequential.

Meanwhile, those who had predicted the worst were accused of crying " Wolf, " or

worse, being in cahoots with computer and software companies who inflated Y2K

fears to make a quick buck selling new equipment.

Not being omniscient, I can't say what would have happened around the world if

we hadn't prepared for Y2K. I do know that I was working for a newspaper and was

more familiar than most with its computer systems. And I know for a fact that

without serious efforts by our IT folks and vendors — and some serious

expenditures — we would have been out of business, period. Our publishing

systems, advertising systems, circulation systems and even our presses were all

dependent on critical software that performed date arithmetic. And they all

would have failed if we hadn't prepared for Y2K.

I have not talked to an IT professional who was around during that period in any

business, anywhere, who didn't tell the same story. The entire IT world

mobilized to prevent a Y2K disaster, and it worked. The world spent a lot of

money on programming, on new hardware, and new software. Some people made a lot

of money from it.

But it wasn't money wasted. Programmers learned that shortcuts can have

unintended consequences and have been more careful ever since. The companies and

agencies that upgraded their computers have benefited over the long run. New

York City officials, for example, credited redundant systems created and

upgraded for Y2K with the quick rebound of the city's IT infrastructure after

the terrorist attacks of 9/11.

But conspiracy theorists are still arguing that it was all a plot by the

government and the computer companies, and the Trilateral Commission, and the

Illuminati — or whoever — to create a Y2K panic. And many of them are drawing

comparisons with the H1N1 pandemic: You'll find a spirited argument about the

issue in the New York Times " Bits " blog in December.

Yes, we'll probably wind up with a lot of unused H1N1 vaccine on our hands — but

I can't imagine the world's public health agencies doing any less than they have

to battle a pandemic that threatened to be frighteningly deadly. And it still

might, because the flu season isn't over, and as any epidemiologist will tell

you, influenza is constantly mutating.

Although the response in the U.S. and abroad was far from perfect, the community

of people responsible for public health mobilized quickly, identified the new

pathogen, developed a vaccine for it and managed to distribute it on a

widespread basis — wide enough that instead of rationing vaccine, government

agencies are begging people to come in for flu shots.

And if it didn't kill millions of people (apparently, the only outcome that

would have satisfied the skeptics) H1N1 has killed thousands — many of them

young — and infected millions less seriously. Thousands more have been spared

because a vaccine was available. Making this happen quickly is expensive.

Just as important, the H1N1 experience has forced government, business, public

health agencies, hospitals, and other care providers around the world to examine

their plans for dealing with a serious pandemic — plans that in many cases were

found wanting.

In any case, as an " older person, " I wasn't in the early H1N1 vaccination target

groups. But now the government has given everyone the go-ahead for shots. During

my annual physical exam a couple of weeks ago, the doctor brought up the subject

and noted that I wasn't in any of the high-risk groups. But she would be happy

to give me a shot if I wanted one.

I rolled up my sleeve. Why take chances?

February 15, 2010

That is funny, but the media has got to do something to sell newspapers and

magazines. I remember hearing about Y2K meetings at fire stations because

people were in such panic. Ofcourse, the real problem is Y5B

http://www.y5b.com/

>

> I love this blog post (below) that compares the H1N1 pandemic " conspiracy "

with Y2K. He nailed two of my favorite gripes with one stone. I was a computer